Sunday, 25 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open

The Hidden Connection Between Rallies And Returns

G’day from Melbourne,

There is a hidden connection between the serve and rally phases of a point.

New data from the 2026 Australian Open pinpoints how successful the server performs in the rally phase of the point after starting with either a first or second serve.

Here’s how it works…

The first premise is that the serve AND the return were both put into play.
We then examine win percentages when the point started with either a first or second serve.

2026 Australian Open Women

The return of serve coming back into play is the great equalizer in the women’s game. It completely strips any advantage the server may have had from hitting a quality serve.

1st Serve Pts Won When Return In Play = 50%
2nd Serve Pts Won When Return In Play = 40%

These are jaw-dropping numbers, especially when starting the point with a second serve. The best women’s players in the world can only manage to win 40% of their baseline points when the return of serve came back into play after a second serve. This is a shockingly low number. You can picture the returner stepping in and being aggressive against the second serve, instantly forcing a multitude of Serve +1 errors.

It’s also bewildering to uncover that when the point starts with a first serve, and the return is put back in play, there is simply no advantage at all for the server. They only win 50%.

IMPROVE YOUR BASELINE GAME

Webinar 14: Forehand Playbook

Webinar 15; Backhand Playbook

Webinar 22: Run-Around Forehands

Webinar 27: Winners & Errors

Webinar 26: ABCD Baseline Locations

What does all this mean? The first thing that resonates is that simply putting the return in play, especially against second serves, puts you in the driver’s seat as the returner. It also illuminates the situation where the returner fails to put a second serve return back in the court. This emerges as one of the worst things the returner can do.

Of the players so far to reach the quarter-finals, Iva Jovic has won 56% (45/81) of her first serve points when the return came in play, and 66% (39/59) of second serve points in the same scenario.

2026 Australian Open Men

The men’s data also produces some shocking statistics.

1st Serve Pts Won When Return In Play = 54%
2nd Serve Pts Won When Return In Play = 47%

It’s crazy to think the men can only win 47% of their baseline points when they start the point with a second serve. You would think even second serves offer some kind of slim advantage, but it’s simply not the case. The men won 54% of points when their first serve came back into play, which also seems low.

The peak-performer to the quarter-finals is Alex De Minaur, who has won 62% (55/89) of 2nd serve points when the return has been put back into play. Novak Djokovic has won a commanding 71% (59/83) of 1st serve points when the return has come back into play.

SUMMARY

If you are the returner, putting the return back in play is more important than you ever realized. Also, if you are returning second serves, it should be almost criminal if you fail to put the return back in play. Yes, there are “good” errors that you will inevitably make, but this is a specific inflection point that you can’t afford to be loose with.

From a server’s standpoint, making your first serve is going to help your baseline battles. If you think your opponent is stronger than you from the baseline, first serves in play is one way to gain the upper hand in baseline exchanges.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.