Saturday, 06 June 2026 / Published in Maja Chawalinska, Mirra Andreeva, Roland Garros

Roland Garros Women’s Final. 10 Things To Look For – Chwalinska v Andreeva

G’day From Paris,

24-year-old Maja Chwalinska takes on 19-year-old Mirra Adnreeva in the Roland Garros women’s final today.

Chwalinska came through qualifying and has only dropped one set to the final. HERE’S my early prediction of her winning the tournament.

Chwalinska To The Final

Q1 def. A. Rame 6-0, 6-3
Q2 def. C. Monnet 6-0, 6-1
Q3 def. S. Lamens 7-6(4), 7-5
Rd 1 def. Q Zheng 6-4, 6-0
Rd 2 def. E, Mertens 6-4, 6-0
Rd 3 def. M. Sakkari 1-6, 6-3, 6-2
Rd 4 def. D. Parry 6-3, 6-2
Qtr def. A. Kalinskaya 7-6(3), 6-3
Semi def. D. Shnaider 7-6(4), 6-4

Andreeva To The Final

Rd 1 def. F. Ferro 6-3, 6-3
Rd 2 def. M. Bassols Ribera 3-6, 6-1, 6-1
Rd 3 def. M. Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
Rd 4 def. J. Teichmann 6-3, 6-2
Qtr def. def. S. Cirstea 6-0, 6-3
Semi def. def. M. Kostyuk 6-1, 6-3

Let’s take a look at 10 stats that definitely favor one player over the other.

MENTAL GAME

From the moment I saw Chwalinska in the second round of qualifying, she has been a mental juggernaut moving through the field. I am so impressed with her Roger Federer-like attitude on the court. She is cool, calm, and collected, and at no stage have I seen her get upset, nervous, scared, or angry. She does not beat herself.

Andreeva, on the other hand, has a history of self-defeating body language on the court. I wrote about it HERE from a Madrid match a month ago.

Chwalinska is not going to bear herself in this match. Andreeva may not either, but then again…

When you look at both players’ match stats to the final, the data is very even. How both players handle the big moments when they arrive looks to be the deciding factor.

2. SERVICE GAMES WON/LOST

Chwalinska = 78% (won 45/lost 13)
Andreeva = 87% (won 45/lost 7)

This is definitely in the asset column for Andreeva. She has only lost serve seven times in six matches to the final, while Chwalinska is almost double that at 13. If Andreeva holds serve as easily as she has to the final, nothing else is going to matter.

3. 1ST SERVES POINTS WON

Chwalinska 73%
Andreeva 66%

Both players will do well behind their first serves. It’s simply a matter of doing it at the right time. when the match is on the line. Chwalinska is a lefty, so jam serves to the body and out wide in the Ad court will be her primary strategy.

4. 2ND SERVE POINTS WON

Chwalinska 59%
Andreeva 53%

Again, like almost all the data to the final, the two players are very close. The deeper you dig into the serve stats, the more you find how even these two players are all over the court. And the more this match will come down to handling the big moments.

5. 1ST SERVE % ON BREAK POINTS

Chwalinska = 76%
Andreeva = 58%

Right around three out of every four break points are played in the Ad court. This will favor the lefty (Chwalinska) as she can pull Andreeva off the court to open up holes to attack with her serve +1 forehand on break points.

6.1ST SERVES UNRETURNED

Chwalinska = 14%
Andreeva = 23%

I doubt Andreeva will enjoy having one out of four 1st serves unreturned in this match. Quite simply, Chwalinska locks in so well with her return of serve and plays with such a margin over the net that Andreeva will have to deal with more of these points with the ball back in play.

7. FOREHAND WINNERS

Chwalinska = 49
Andreeva = 39

Chwalinska loves to hit her forehand high and heavy. She will initially look to push Andreeva back, making contact with the ball above her head. And when that ball inevitably comes back short, she will look to attack. Rally high to the backhand to start the point and then finish to the vacant Deuce court to the forehand.

8. FOREHAND ERRORS

Chwalinska = 84
Andreeva = 98

This is a possible advantage Chwalinska can look to open up. Andreev can be more aggressive from the back of the court, but she can also spray balls back there as well. The lefty factor can take away her favorite patterns and make her running forehand vulnerable to errors.

9. NET POINTS WON

Chwalinska = 69% (44/64)
Andreeva = 73% (54/74)

Again, another very even match stat. Chwalinska will be looking to come forward with powerful swinging volleys and also touch first volleys that are essentially drop volleys. She is so smart at finishing points at the net. The player who is playing with more freedom and confidence will look to move forward to finish points at important moments.

10. SERVICE GAMES HELD FROM 15-0

Chwalinska = 86% (32/37)
Andreeva = 89% (31/35)

It’s an incredible stat, Andreeva has only lost serve four out of 35 times when she has surged to a 15-0 lead on serve. Chwalinska is just as impressive, losing only five service games from 37 service games. This is definitely a mini battleground that could prove pivotal to the final outcome.

Let’s hope for an outstanding match. I predict Chwalinska wins in three sets.

Best,

Craig

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0-4 Shots = 70%
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9+ Shots = 10%

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AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

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The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

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Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

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Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
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Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

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The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

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Doubles Situations

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There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.