Friday, 31 January 2025 / Published in Australian Open, Ben Shelton, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner

My Top 7 Takeaways From 2025 Aussie Open

G’day,

The 2025 Australian Open smashed attendance records day after day, highlighting just how popular the sport is Down Under. You actually can’t qualify the Aussie Open as just a tennis tournament anymore. It’s morphing into a festival with so much to see and do for the whole family. It’s the most fan-friendly tournament on the calendar.

This year, I blended my time with media work and coaching players. To be clear, I was not working as anyone’s primary coach but on coaching teams, providing strategy work, game plans, and video analysis. Here are seven things that stood out to me from an outstanding tournament.

1: The Worst Shot In Tennis Is The Defensive Forehand

I watched a lot of tennis courtside this year because of my return to coaching players. By far the worst shot I saw was the defensive forehand. Let me explain…

The forehand is the sword and is built to attack. It has a big backswing for power. The backhand is the shield, built to defend and keep you alive in the point. So what happens when the forehand is called upon to defend? It rarely does. The player has two options when the ball is tough on the forehand side.

Option 1 = Move back to create enough time for the big backswing.
Option 2 = Stay in the same place but shorten the backswing.

What typically happens is that the ego of the forehand takes over, and the player does not move back and tries to swing their way out of trouble.

Do not play offense when on defense!!!

I encourage you to stay in the same location and shorten the backswing. Block your way out of trouble, and remember the general rule that defense goes cross-court.

2: Body Language Is Where It All Starts

Body language is such a separator of talent in our sport. The ability to be under stress and not show it to the world is a superpower. The first thing to understand is that players are actually competing in two matches. One during the point and one between the points. It’s between the point where I really switch on my radar and study the player I am working with and their opponent. This is where you can truly measure confidence and belief.

Generally, the player who is stronger mentally and emotionally between the points will win the match. Their head is in the right place to problem solve. It’s as simple as that.

GET MENTALLY TOUGHER IN COMPETITION

Course: Getting Tight

Webinar 48: Game Plans

Webinar 46: 8 Ways To Force An Error

Webinar 41: Opponent Awareness

Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play

3: When Alcaraz Lost, Sinner Won

Pre-tournament, I picked Alcaraz to beat Sinner in the final. Alcaraz won all three of their meetings in 2024 at Indian Wells, Roland Garros, and Beijing. When Alcaraz again had trouble putting away a wounded Djokovic (Cincinnati 2023 final), Sinner’s main rival was gone. Djokovic was not at his best, and Zverev was back to having forehand troubles.

When Djokovic knocked out Alcaraz in the quarters, Sinner grew another leg. Here’s Sinner’s performance from the quarters onwards.

Quarter-final: Sinner def. De Minaur 6-3, 6-2, 6-1
Semi-final: Sinner def. Shelton 7-6, 6-2, 6-2
Final: Sinner def. Zverev 6-3, 7-6, 6-3

Look at those scorelines. Two out of nine sets reached a tie-break and the most an opponent got in the other seven sets was three games. When Alcaraz went down, Sinner tore through the rest of the field.

4: Sabalenka Played Keys The Wrong Way

Congratulations to Madison Keys for finally breaking through to win a major.

Keys played great in the final, but Sabalenka contributed to her own demise by playing her the wrong way.

I want you to think of tennis strategy in baseball terms. Keys loves power. Give her power, and more power is coming back. So in baseball terms, Keys loves fastballs in the middle of the strike zone. It’s her wheelhouse, and that’s what Sabalenka kept giving her.

If you watch the match again, look to see the balls that Keys misses. They are slower balls, or higher balls, or wider balls. They are anything but fastballs in the strike zone. Sabalenka was feeding her opponent exactly what she wanted, and Keys took advantage and played lights out.

5: First Volley Behind

When players came to the net to finish points, they invariably ended up around the service line for their first volley. They were running an offensive pattern of play but were in a defensive part of the court. It’s very tough to put first volleys away from there.

The answer is to hit the first volley back behind where the opponent is running from and make them have to stop, turn around, and chase the volley down. Most of the time, the resulting shot from a first volley behind is a lob.

So think of it this way…

Hit an offensive approach shot.
Hit a defensive first volley behind.
Get an overhead on the next shot to finish the point.

A lot of passing shots I saw came from a first volley that was hit to the open court. We can all learn from that.

6: Ben Shelton Is The Real Deal

The more I study Ben Shelton, the more I like his game. The best thing is that he has an excellent blend of offensive and defensive skills. His lefty serve is one of the biggest weapons in our game, and he can hit any spot in either service box with outstanding accuracy. His forehand has a ton of spin and leaps off the court up high out of the opponent’s strike zone. His backhand is solid, and he has great mastery of the backhand slice.

I also like his heavy forehand approach, which is very tough to pass him off. Lastly, Ben has a massive forehand down the line to end points, and he does such a great job of showing positive body language to his box, where his father mentors him.

Shelton’s time is coming. He had set points serving against Sinner in the first set of the semi-final and then was unable to sustain the same level.

His time will come.

7: The 2nd Serve Is Still A Liability

Here are the tournament averages for 2nd serve points won.

- MEN = 50.9% (5504/10800)
- WOMEN = 45.8% (3202/6978)

The second serve is definitely a liability in the women’s game, and the men are barely scratching above 50%. What can players do to help win more second-serve points immediately? There are three things that spring to mind…

Reduce exposure to double faults. A couple are okay. More open the door to getting broken more than necessary.
Have a strong defensive Serve +1 groundstroke. Your second serve is probably coming back with interest. Work on defending your way out of trouble by blocking the fast return. Limit your Serve +1 errors.
Mix your second serve all around the service box. Don’t be too predictable to the backhand jam location. Once the returner is dialed, they will step in with their backhand return, or hit a bigger run-around forehand. A healthy mix avoids aggressive returns.

All the best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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My Top 7 Takeaways From 2025 Aussie Open