Thursday, 08 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open, Milos Raonic, Rafael Nadal

How To Build Return Pressure

Rafael Nadal is a master of moments in time.

Nadal defeated Milos Raonic 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-4 at Rod Laver Arena, playing even for a lot of the contest, and then owning the moments that mattered the most to the bottom line.

Nadal won 117 points for the match to Raonic’s 95 (+22). The Spaniard was simply better at finding ways to surge to the finish line in each set to secure the quarter-final victory.

Raonic was only broken twice for the match, in the first and third sets, and it was Nadal’s superior experience and command of the moment that proved pivotal. Nadal was not broken in 16 service games.

Building Return Pressure

In the opening set, Nadal leaned on Raonic’s opening service game, extending it to three deuces, with the Canadian holding.

Even though Nadal was not able to break, he sent an early message. Get ready for more of this noise.

Raonic held to love in his second service game, but had to go to deuce again in his third. In the Canadian’s fourth service game, at 3-3, the pressure meter exploded, with Nadal breaking to 15.

Nadal did not break in the earlier two service games, but extending them to deuce helped him get a solid read of his opponent and continuously ramp up the pressure meter.

Nadal lost only two points in his next two service games to secure the opening set.

Failing To Convert Break Points

Raonic absolutely had to win the second set to have any chance of winning the match. He held his only four break points of the match in set two, but could not convert any of them. More moments in time that Nadal put his signature on.

Raonic’s first break point came in Nadal’s opening game of the second set, at ad out. Nadal hit a 160km/h slice serve out wide to Roanic’s backhand that was unreturned. Where else was it going?

Raonic then held three more break points with Nadal serving at 4-5 – all set points that could have leveled the match and provided a massive boost to the Canadian’s chances of advancing to the semi’s.

On the first break point, Raonic made a forehand return error. At 30-40, Raonic committed a backhand error. On the third set point, Nadal hit a 163 km/h serve at the body and followed it up with a forehand winner.

More moments that massively matter.

Raonic then led 6-4 in the second set tie-breaker, but committed a backhand return error and then coughed up a double fault.

So many chances. So many moments in time to seize the momentum, to level the score, to get into the match, to play Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-finals.

Winners & Errors

Overall, Nadal hit 15 forehand winners to Raonic’s 11. Nadal backed it up with 13 winners off the backhand side to Raonic’s zero. Not a single backhand winner for the Canadian out of 212 points.

Whenever Nadal needed a point, he knew on this night, on this court, that he could pound away at Raonic’s backhand without retaliation. Raonic’s zero backhand winners was a bad number. The 30 backhand errors offered zero support.

Nadal won 53 per cent (61/116) of his baseline points, while Raonic was far away at 35 per cent. (31/89). Raonic only served and volleyed five times, winning three, and won just 52 per cent (27/52) at net for the night.

Nadal won the big moments and consistently played from ahead in most rallies. Coming from behind against a 14-time Grand Slam champion on Rod Laver Arena is a bridge too far.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.