Saturday, 27 January 2024 / Published in Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner

2024 Australian Open Men’s Final: 8 Keys To Victory

G’day from Melbourne!

It’s the ???? vs. the ???? in the men’s final this evening!

Jannik Sinner will take on Daniil Medvedev in an intriguing match-up that will decide Grand Slam glory to start 2024. Here are seven things that will go a long way to deciding the final outcome.

1: TIME ON COURT TO THE FINAL

Sinner = 14:44 hrs
Medvedev = 20:33 hrs

This is a substantial difference in energy exerted over the past two weeks.

Sinner: Round By Round

Medvedev: Round By Round

Sinner’s build-up to the final has been on point. He started with four straight-set victories against some quality players, signaling his game was exactly where it needed to be to mount a charge deep into the second week. Defeating Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev in straight sets was rock solid. Defeating Novak Djokovic in four sets was simply stunning. Sinner has nailed his first six matches of the tournament, and they are a perfect curtain-raiser to crush it in round seven.

Medvedev, on the other hand, has been on the struggle bus with only one straight-set victory. Playing three five-set matches to the final is going to take it out of you physically and mentally – especially playing two five-setters leading into the final. It would not surprise me at all to see signs of fatigue from Medvedev as early as the first set in this hard-hitting final. Medvedev is going to have to be at his best defending the raw power from Sinner. That’s a tough ask, even when you are fresh. It’s much tougher, considering all the extra time on the court he has had the past two weeks.

2: RALLY LENGTH PLAYED

Surprisingly, Sinner and Medvedev have played almost the same way with regards to rally length to the final.

Sinner: Rally Length Played To The Final

Medvedev: Rally Length Played To The Final

It’s actually quite remarkable how close they are in rally length played, being one to two percentage points difference in all three areas. This is actually great news for Sinner, as he will be able to play right in his own wheelhouse in the final. It’s Medvedev who will have to adapt and change and go out of his comfort zone to try and disrupt Sinner’s aggressive play.

3: RALLY LENGTH POINTS WON

These numbers stopped me in my tracks.

Sinner: Rally Length Won/Lost To The Final

Medvedev: Rally Length Won/Lost To The Final

Sinner is +105 in points won in the 0-4 shot rally length. That simply means he has won 105 more points than he has lost in short rallies where he hits a maximum of just two shots in the court.

Medvedev, on the other hand, is only +4. Doing well in this rally length is absolutely crucial to the final outcome. Sinner is crushing it here, and Medvedev is basically playing even. This is great news for Sinner!

Sinner is also very dominant in medium-length rallies of 5-8 shots, being +40. Medvedev is only +4. Again, great news for the Italian.

It’s only when you get to the long rallies of 9+ that Medvedev finds a sizeable advantage. He is +44 in extended rallies of 9+ shots, while Sinner is only +2.

This data clearly indicates Sinner will perform better in shorter rallies in the final, and Medvedev will want to extend rallies as long as possible to wear down his opponent. The only problem for Medvedev is that he is already fatigued from back-to-back five-setters leading into the final.

Short rallies will favour Sinner. Long rallies will favour Medvedev. It’s really that simple sometimes.

4: DOUBLE FAULTS

Medvedev = 43 double faults in 27 sets = 1.6 per set
Sinner = 10 double faults in 19 sets = 0.5 per set

Medvedev is far more likely to rack up more double faults than Sinner is based on their run to the final. Sinner only hit three double faults in his first three matches, while Medvedev has hit 27 double faults in his last three matches. It will be all about timing. When do they come, and does it lead to a break of serve?

5: BASELINE POINTS WON

Medvedev = 49.2% (485/993) – Ranked #25
Sinner = 52.5% (338/644) – Ranked #6

This is another important match stat that favours the Italian. Sinner is ranked sixth best for the tournament with baseline points win, at 52.5%. This is a really solid number that shows he is crushing it from the back of the court. For example, Djokovic only won 40.4% (55/136) of his baseline points in their semi-final. I can’t remember the last time I saw Djokovic’s baseline win percentage so low in a match. That was incredibly impressive from the 22-year-old Italian.

With all things being equal, Medvedev is going to struggle to forge a clear advantage from the back of the court in baseline exchanges. Sinner simply has too much firepower.

6: NET POINTS WON

Medvedev = 69% (104/150) – Ranked #41
Sinner = 77% (106/137) – Ranked #9

More good news for Sinner in a head-to-head comparison against Medvedev. Sinner has averaged going to the net 7.2 times per set, while Medvedev is only at 5.5 times per set. Sinner is winning more at net (77% to 69%) and going to the net more. What makes it rough for Medvedev is that he is not out-performing Sinner at the front of the court or the back.

7: FOREHAND PERFORMANCE

Medvedev = 73 winners / 264 errors = -191
Sinner = 70 winners 163 errors = -93

This is a jaw-dropping stat in favour of Sinner. Medvedev has played 26 sets while Sinner has only played 19 sets – but they have almost the exact same amount of forehand winners. Medvedev has collected 73 forehand winners, while Sinner has 70. Wow!

Expect Sinner’s forehand to be the MVP of the final. His backhand will be rock solid, but it will be the forehand that hits through Medvedev and extracts lots of errors from getting him on the run and making him uncomfortable in rallies.

8: BACKHAND PERFORMANCE

Medvedev = 41 winners / 200 errors = -159
Sinner = 31 winners / 151 errors = -120

Backhand performance seems fairly even when you account for the extra sets that Medvedev has played to the final. Expect Medvedev to lock in on backhand-to-backhand rallies through the Ad court to frustrate the offense of the Italian. Medvedev loves to shovel backhands cross court standing wide in the Ad court because it takes away his opponent’s run-around forehands and offers a tough angle to go down the line to hurt him.

Medvedev will want to lock Sinner in the backhand cage and take away his forehand offense. He is so good at that. Sinner will need to hit backhands down the line to change the directional flow of the point to bring his forehand into play.

SUMMARY

The match data to the final clearly identifies that Sinner should enjoy small advantages all over the court. I expect Sinner to win in four sets. A huge question mark over the final is how much gas Medvedev still has in the tank after playing 10 grueling sets in the quarters and semis against strong opponents.

Sinner is fresher and is in the best form of his life. Medvedev will have to serve incredibly well and do whatever it takes to get inside Sinner’s head to frustrate him. The backhand cage strategy seems the obvious one. Sinner has won the last three times against Medvedev. All data points suggest a fourth is on the way.

Let’s hope for an epic final!

Craig

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