Saturday, 31 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open, Break Points

2026 Oz Open Final. Can Djokovic defeat Alcaraz? Why Not?

G’day from Melbourne,

All points in tennis are not created equal. Break points are the “king makers” that weigh heaviest on the final outcome of a match.

Want to know how/why 38-year-old Novak Djokovic has reached the Australian Open final against Carlos Alcaraz this evening? Look no further than Break Points Saved.

In the fifth set of Novak’s semi-final blockbuster against Jannik Sinner, the Serb faced eight break points. He saved every one of them.

Sinner only yielded one break opportunity in the fifth set. It was a 10-shot rally that ended with a Sinner forehand error. That’s all it took to bring this Serbian fairytale to life.

NOVAK: 31 BREAK POINTS SAVED

Novak has saved 31 break points en route to the final. There is a pattern to his success.

Only two of the 31 saved break points have reached double digits. The most common thing that has happened is that his opponent has committed a return error. The point is over before it has started.

It’s important to note that the length of the rally is predicated on the ball landing in on the court, not hitting the strings. For example, a three-shot rally means the serve went in, the return went in, and the Serve +1 also landed in. Another shot may have been hit, but it must have landed out. Only the server can win odd-numbered rallies. Only the returner can win even-numbered rallies.

Rally Length: Break Points Saved (Total 31)

Novak wants to end the break point before the opponent can gain a foothold. Short rallies completely dominate as he seeks to stop the returner from finding a successful pathway forward. Twenty-five of the 31 points have the returner only landing a maximum of two shots in the court. His primary target is extracting errors from his opponent’s forehand wing – either from the return of serve, or early in the rally.

Break Points Saved: Last Shot Of The Point

Djokovic is pummelling his opponent’s forehand on the biggest points of the match. He has extracted 11 forehand rally errors and five forehand return errors. At the same time, he has also contributed six forehand winners when down break point.

For the tournament, Novak has made 63% (321/475) of first serves. When saving break point, he has made 71% (22/31) of first serves in the court. His secret sauce is making a first serve down the T in the Ad court to his opponent’s forehand return. That’s either an error, or a forehand error soon follows.

NOVAK: 10 BREAK POINTS LOST

Opponents have stepped up and hit four forehand winners from the 10 break points converted. Novak has committed three forehand errors as well as one backhand error, one backhand volley error, and a single double fault. Only one of the points reached double digits.

Novak started these points five times with a first serve and five times with a second serve. He has done little wrong when push comes to shove.

SUMMARY

There are many moments in time on big points that Novak could have faltered and lost the match. But he didn’t. He has both been extremely lucky (Musetti retiring) while also manufacturing his own luck (saving 8/8 BP’s in Set 5 vs. Sinner).

Look for the same patterns of play in the final against Alcaraz. Look for Novak to serve down the T in the Ad court to Alcaraz’s forehand return at 30-40. Novak wants to hit a hard slice serve and bend the ball away from the Spaniard. He wants Carlitos to brush up the back of the ball too steeply, trying to lift the ball over the net. Look for that shot to fly out the back of the court and Novak to move to Deuce in the game.

Nothing about Novak’s tournament is straightforward.

I watched his opening-round victory against Pedro Martinez from the third row of Rod Laver Arena and saw a player in rich form. A player who was leaning on the ball and striking it with conviction. He looked cool, calm and collected. It was the look of a player who knew he was going deep in the tournament even if nobody else knew.

Will be beat Alcaraz tonight? Why not?

Novak is on a magical carpet ride with everything falling his way. Once you gain this much momentum, you can do anything you want – including winning an eleventh Australian Open title.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.