Thursday, 22 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open, Novak Djokovic

2026 Australian Open: Novak Is Locked In. Here’s 10 Reasons Why.

G’day From Melbourne

Novak Djokovic is through to the third round of the 2026 Australian Open in commanding fashion. Let’s take a look at what he is doing well as he attempts to win an unprecedented eleventh title Down Under.

Djokovic: First Two Rounds

Rd 1 def. Pedro Martinez 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Rd 2 def. Francesco Maestrelli 6-3, 6-2, 6-2

Here are 10 statistics from his first two rounds that identify where Novak is dominating his opponents.

1: SERVICE GAMES STARTING AT 15-0

Tournament Average = 64%
N. Djokovic = 88% (23/26)

Pedro and Francesco found it almost impossible to get into Novak’s service games in the opening two rounds. The Super Serb surged ahead 15-0 when serving 23 times from 26 service games. You already have your back against the wall playing Novak, but to also spot him the opening point of his service game makes it an even higher mountain to climb.

2: HOLDING SERVE FROM 15-0

Tournament Average = 90%
N. Djokovic = 100% (23/23)

When Novak has won the first point of his service game to move to a 15-0 lead, he has not dropped serve, winning all 23 of his service games. This is also an important match metric for amateur players. You need to “lock in” on the first point of the game to create another opponent = the scoreboard.

3: HOLDING SERVE FROM 0-15

Tournament average = 65%
N. Djokovic = 67% (2/3)

This is interesting. Novak has only been behind 0-15 in three of 26 service games. He has lost two of them. You get the feeling with his dominant early form that this may be the only way to break him by crafting an early advantage in his service games.

4: BASELINE POINTS WON

Tournament average = 47%
N. Djokovic = 60% (102/169)

Novak has been lights out from the baseline in his first two matches (six sets). He is winning 60% of his baseline points, which is simply outrageous. That puts him in third place among players who have won both of their opening-round matches. Battling Novak from the back of the court is not working for opponents so far. Let’s see if Novak comes off the boil or if he runs into more challenging opponents as the tournament unfolds.

5: NET POINTS WON

Tournament average = 66%
N. Djokovic = 70% (32/46)

Novak is crushing it from the back of the court and also dominating at the net. He has come to the net more than Carlos Alcaraz (46 to 43) in the opening two rounds.

6: RETURN DECISIVE POINTS WON

Tournament average = 35%
N. Djokovic = 54% (35/65)

A decisive point is another way of saying game point. For example, Novak is returning, and the server is serving at 40-30. That counts. Or the server is serving at 0-40. That also counts. It’s any point by either player that, if won, would win them the game. The tournament average is 35% when returning. Novak is at 54%, which puts him fourth best so far in this critical category. He is already owning the big moments in the match.

7: RALLY LENGTH PLAYED

Novak is all about dominating his matches with shorter points than longer ones in his first two matches.

Rally Length Played

0-4 Shots = 65% (211)
5-8 Shots = 24% (77)
9+ Shots = 11% (38)
TOTAL = 326

Novak is successfully keeping points shorter, which is a great way to conserve energy for the second week when he will need it most. He has only played 11% of his points in longer rallies of 9+ shots.

8: RALLY LENGTH WON

Novak is creating more separation from his opponents in shorter rallies than in longer ones.

0-4 Shots: Novak 134 points / Opponents 77 = 57 point advantage
5-8 Shots: Novak 45 points / Opponents 32 = 13 point advantage
9+ Shots: Novak 21 points / Opponents 17 = 4 point advantage

We all think of Novak as the master of long rallies, but it’s really the short rallies where he dominates at Melbourne Park.

9: 1ST SERVES IN

Tournament average = 63%
N. Djokovic = 70% (94/135)

One of the reasons Novak has been broken only once so far this tournament is the extremely high percentage of first serves he is putting into play. He has made 70% of his first serves, which is significantly higher than the tournament average of 63%. This reduces his exposure to second serves and keeps him away from playing too many break points.

10: 1st SERVE POINTS WON

Tournament average = 72%
N. Djokovic = 89% (84/94)

Novak leads the entire draw in first-serve points won at 89%. He has hit 94 first serves in play, and has won a remarkable 84 of them. This sets him up well for a deep run in week two of the tournament.

SUMMARY

Novak’s game is humming.

He is serving lights out and is leaning on the ball in baseline rallies like the Novak we have grown accustomed to watching on Rod Laver Arena. He looks like he has got all his ducks in a row.

Next up is a tougher test in Botic Van De Zandschulp. If he gets through that, it’s either Jacob Mensik or Ethan Quinn. Nobody knows better how to navigate the draw and build his game at Melbourne Park than Novak.

He is locked in. If there were no Sinner or Alcaraz in the draw, he would be the red-hot favorite.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.