Friday, 23 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open, Return Of Serve

2026 Australian Open – Let’s Talk Return Of Serve Speed

G’day from Melbourne,

In many ways, the returner is simply reacting to what the server is giving them. If the serve is good and hits its spot, the returner is just trying to get the return back in play and somehow survive the early onslaught from the server. That will likely produce a slow return to just get the return back in play.

Let’s take a look at average forehand and backhand return speeds against first and second serves and see what we can learn.

2026 Australian Open Men (First 3 Rounds)

75 MPH / 121 KM/H – Forehand return vs. 2nd serve
70 MPH / 112 KM/H – Backhand return vs 2nd serve
64 MPH / 103 KM/H – Forehand return vs. 1st serve
60 MPH / 97 KM/H – Backhand return vs. 1st serve

These speeds all tell a story. Let’s dig in.

Forehand Returns vs. 2nd Serves

This is where the returner is attacking the most. There is a significant 15 mph (24 km/h) difference between the fastest speed and the slowest speed = FH return vs. 2nd serve and BH return vs. 1st serve.

The goal here is to hit an aggressive forehand return against a weaker second serve. In many cases, the second serve will be directed at the backhand return, and the goal of the returner is to upgrade to a run-around forehand return.

Backhand Returns vs. 2nd Serves

It’s important to note that backhand returns against second serves are, on average, 6 mph / 9 km/h faster than forehand returns against second serves. The key here is that you need to go after the second serve, no matter what you are hitting.

The goal here is to step in and take the ball early, inside the baseline, and use the strings’ rebounding power to get the ball back to the serve quickly and rush him. Even though you are hitting a less potent backhand return, you still need to be on attack.

Forehand Returns vs. 1st Serves

Forehand returns vs. 1st serves are a significant 11 mph / 19 km/h slower than against second serves. The data tells us that offense has essentially dried up against the first serve, and the returner is basically on defense, trying to get the return back in play and survive the start of the point.

A really tough spot for the forehand return is out wide in the Deuce court (for a right-handed player). Getting pulled off the court is tough, and the returner would be wise to keep the backswing short and block the return back cross court to try and neutralize the point.

Backhand Returns vs. 1st Serves

This is all about survival. The potent first serve is wanting to go head-to-head with the backhand return. This produces the slowest return speed as the returner is just trying to stay alive in the point. The goal here is to block the return back in play deep down the middle of the court without a lot of power. This provides no angle for the server to immediately attack with.

Here’s the data from the women’s draw

2026 Australian Open Women (First 3 Rounds)

74 MPH / 119 KM/H – Forehand return vs. 2nd serve
70 MPH / 113 KM/H – Backhand return vs 2nd serve
65 MPH / 104 KM/H – Forehand return vs. 1st serve
63 MPH / 101 KM/H – Backhand return vs. 1st serve

What’s interesting is that it follows the same speed sequence with forehand returns against second serves being the fastest. And in some cases, the women are averaging higher return speeds than the men.

Forehand Return vs. 2nd Serve

Men = 75 MPH / 121 KM/H
Women = 74 MPH / 119 KM/H

Backhand Return vs. 2nd Serve

Men = 70 MPH / 112 KM/H
Women = 70 MPH / 113 KM/H

Forehand Return vs. 1st Serve

Men = 64 MPH / 103 KM/H
Women = 65 MPH / 104 KM/H

Backhand Return vs. 1st Serve

Men = 60 MPH / 97 KM/H
Women = 63 MPH / 101 KM/H

What typically enables the women to hit harder returns is that the average serve speeds are not as potent as in the men’s game.

These return speeds help outline a return strategy. Where you should be going for it, and in what situation you need to reduce risk and prioritize putting the return of serve back in play.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.