Wednesday, 21 January 2026 / Published in Australian Open, Serving

2026 Australian Open. How To “Set The Weather” When Serving

G’day from Melbourne

In many ways, you can boil tennis down to two tasks. Holding serve and breaking serve.

Is there something fairly simple that players at all levels of our sport can do to help bolster their chances of holding serve? Why, yes, there actually is.

It’s all about the first point of the game. It’s way more important than we ever thought.

Let’s take a look at the numbers from the women’s qualifying draw this year.

2026 Australian Open Women’s Qualifying Draw

Service Games Won = 63%
Service Games Starting 15-0 = 56%
Service Games Won From 15-0 = 77%
Service Games Won From 0-15 = 46%

This is remarkable data. If the ladies lost the opening point of their service games and fell behind 0-15, they were more likely to get broken than to hold serve, at 46%. That’s a massive swing with just one point played. If the server won the opening point and surged to a 15-0 lead, they held serve more than three out of every four times (77%).

The first point of the game has the effect of “setting the weather” for the rest of the game. Tennis is a game of getting ahead, and when the server starts 15-0, they are already on a roll. It’s interesting to note that the women only surged ahead to 15-0 56% of the time. That’s not enough. Here are five things to focus on when the server starts their service game.

Make your first serve. The women were winning 62% of first-serve points, and just 45% of 2nd-serve points.
Look for a Serve +1 forehand, especially as a run-around forehand. This will “freeze” the returner as most run-around forehands are hit with an open stance, and it’s impossible to read where the shot is going.
Finish at the net. The average win percentage from the baseline is 48%. It’s 64% points won from the front of the court. Look to move forward to better take control of the point.
Hit behind your opponent. Chasing the illusion of the open court creates many errors, as that space is rapidly shrinking as the opponent runs toward it. Let them run, and use their speed against them by hitting back behind them.
Avoid secondary patterns. This is not really a time to hit drop shots or go for winners down the line. Keep the strategy simple and let the opponent go for a higher risk shot to finish the point.

Here are the numbers behind the first point of the game for the men.

IMPROVE YOUR ODDS OF HOLDING SERVE

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy And Patterns

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve And Volley / Return And Volley

Webinar 34: The Eight Serve Locations

Webinar 54: First Point Of The Game

2026 Australian Open Men’s Qualifying Draw

Service Games Won = 79%
Service Games Starting At 15-0 = 63%
Service Games Won From 15-0 = 88%
Service Games Won From 0-15 = 65%

There is a sizeable 23 percentage point difference between holding serve from 15-0 (88%) and 0-15 (65%). The first point causes a seismic shift in the returner’s fortunes, enabling them to break.

This match data is so important for players to understand where they can create small advantages. Winning the first point of the game is a key moment in time that ultimately plays a critical part in who ends up winning the match.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.