Saturday, 12 July 2025 / Published in Amanda Anisimova, Iga Świątek, Wimbledon

Wimbledon Preview. Swiatek v Anisimova. The Only 3 Things That Matter.

G’day from Wimbledon,

Iga Swiatek has had a dream run to the Wimbledon women’s final, dropping only one set along the way. Of the 12 sets she has won, seven of them have been 6-2 or better. She soundly defeated Belinda Bencic 6-2, 6-0 in the semi-final, putting 90% of returns in play, winning all six points at net, and clubbing 26 winners to 11.

So, does Anisimova stand a chance against the former No. 1 today? She does, and here’s why.

FOCUS 1: SWIATEK’S FOREHAND AT SW19

2023 – Swiatek’s forehand imploded with 57 errors, losing 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-2 to Elina Svitolina in the quarter-finals. Story HERE.

2024 – Swiatek’s forehand also cratered with 46 errors against Julia Putintseva, going down 3-6, 6-1, 6-2. Story HERE.

2025 – Swiatek’s forehand has generally behaved so far this tournament, hitting 57 winners while committing 113 errors.

Here’s Swiatek’s forehand performance to the 2025 final.

Rd 1 def. Kudermetova 7-5, 6-1. (2 winners/13 errors = -11)
Rd 2 def. McNally 5-7, 6-2, 6-1 (19 winners/37 errors = -18)
Rd 3 def. Collins 6-2, 6-3 (6 winners/14 errors = -8)
Rd 4 def Tauson 6-4, 6-1 (8 winners/14 errors = -6)
QF def. Samsonova 6-2, 7-5 (10 winners/24 errors = -14)
SF def. Bencic 6-2, 6-0 (12 winners/11 errors = +1)

You can argue that Swiatek’s forehand has only misbehaved in one match to the final, committing 37 errors in a three-set victory to McNally in the second round.

Why is that? Because opponents are not locked in on how to break Swiatek’s forehand. And it just so happens Anisimova has all the tools to get the job done.

Swiatek’s grip is way under the racquet in the “western” region. It appears she has modelled her forehand on Rafael Nadal’s. The grip is under, the backswing is big, contact is whippy, and who knows where the follow-through is going to end up.

What’s needed to break it down is a flatter, hard forehand that travels through the court like a freight train. Anisimova has that in spades. The American’s forehand has a lot of “weight” to it, which is exactly what is needed to rush Swiatek’s loopy, flicky forehand. Anisimova needs to continually drop heat directly at Swiatek’s forehand. Ball after ball. Hammer blow after hammer blow.

FOCUS 2: ANISIMOVA’S BACKHAND DOWN THE LINE

At Roland Garros in 2019, I sat courtside to watch the women’s quarter-final between Simona Halep and Anisimova. I was expecting Halep to win comfortably. She lost. Anisimova stunned the #3 seed, winning 6-2, 6-4.

Anisimova narrowly lost 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3 to Ash Barty in the semi-final after enjoying a huge early lead. I watched that match as well.

What was most impressive from Anisimova from those two matches was her favorite shot = backhand down the line. She has exceptional balance to consistently pull this shot off. She lines her body up and stays on the shot, and can completely disrupt her opponent’s Ad court strategy with this one shot.

The backhand down the line is a critical weapon to have against Swiatek because it helps to escape the “backhand cage” in the Ad court, and it can also force a lot of errors from Swiatek’s forehand on the run. This could be the shot that helps Anisimova to victory.

FOCUS 3: POWERFUL SERVE

The best way for Anisimova to extract forehand errors from Swiatek is by coming hard at her forehand return. Attack the size of the backswing immediately with a powerful serve.

Average Serve Speed.

1st Serve

Anisimova = 105 mph
Draw Average = 101 mph

2nd Serve

Anisimova = 92 mph
Draw Average = 86 mph

Anisimova has 34% of her 1st serves unreturned to the final, and 30% of second serves. If she has a good serving day and targets Swiatek’s forehand return, she can chip away at the Pole’s confidence on the forehand wing.

SUMMARY

Swiatek will enter the final as the favorite. She seems to be moving better than normal by getting lower behind the ball. That will help her against Anisimova’s power game. Swiatek will also enjoy superior court coverage and will try and stretch the court against Anisimova as much as possible to make her hit on the run.

Anisimova can win, and if she does, she will use her forehand as a battering ram against Swiatek’s forehand and redirect backhands down the line to diffuse Swiatek’s backhand dominance. She also needs to serve well to feed her Serve +1 forehand winners.

Anisimova’s 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 victory against #1 seed Aryna Sabalenka will bring a lot of confidence that she can take one more step. Swiatek undoubtedly will be relishing not having to face the power game of Sabalenka in the final.

Be careful what you wish for.

PREDICTION: Anisimova in 3 Sets.

Best,

Craig

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