Sunday, 14 July 2024 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon

Wimbledon Men’s Final Preview: 18 Stats That Matter

G’day from Wimbledon! ????

Two weeks have flown by, and the men’s final is today at 2.00 pm. It’s the biggest day of the year on the tennis calendar and I can’t wait to see Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic light it up for the second year in a row.

I was onsite at 7.00 am this morning and took this photo of Centre Court as the sun was rising. So peaceful to be the only one out there with a couple of guards.

Below are 18 match metrics for Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic from their tournament so far. Let’s dive into the numbers and see who performs best when serving, returning, rallying, or finishing points at the net.

1: ACES

Alcaraz 58
Djokovic 54

This is a healthy amount for both players. In last year’s final, Alcaraz served 9, and Djokovic only served 2.

2: DOUBLE FAULTS

Alcaraz 21
Djokovic 14

These are solid numbers for both players to the final. Remember, Djokovic played one less match.

3: UNRETURNED 1ST SERVES

Alcaraz 42%
Djokovic 40%

This is a possible area where the returner can gain traction in the opponent’s service games. It is surprising to me that Alcaraz is ahead of Djokovic in this area, as Novak’s first call of action is to make first-serve returns, while Carlos is typically a little more aggressive.

4: UNRETURNED 2ND SERVES

Alcaraz 23%
Djokovic 19%

Djokovic is definitely more aggressive with his slice second serve to the forehand in both the Deuce and Ad courts, so gaining a few more unreturned 2nd serve points is exactly what I expected. Alcaraz needs to be sitting on this serve to his forehand today and not be surprised by the switch in location from the traditional backhand jam location.

5: 1ST SERVES IN

Alcaraz 64%
Djokovic 67%

Strong numbers from both players. They will both be happy if they can hit their respective averages in the final.

6: 1ST SERVES WON

Alcaraz 72%
Djokovic 82%

This is a significant advantage for Djokovic coming into the final. To be 10 percentage points ahead of Alcaraz in this all-important stat tells a story. If Djokovic can be 80% or higher in the final, he will be awfully hard to break and defeat.

7: 2ND SERVES WON

Alcaraz 59%
Djokovic 57%

Basically a dead heat in a critical match metric. Good form for both players on second serves coming into the final.

8: BREAK POINTS SAVED

Alcaraz 56% (24/43)
Djokovic 64% (9/14)

This stat will be the crucible of the final. Who can best protect their serve? It is fascinating to see that Djokovic has only had to face 14 break points in six matches, while Alcaraz has had to save 43 in five matches. This stat is definitely in the Serb’s favor for the final.

9: SERVICE GAMES WON

Alcaraz 83% (95/114)
Djokovic 94% (80/85)

Again, advantage Djokovic. Who knows where Novak would be if he had to play six matches instead of five? He could quite easily be around the same data point as Carlos.

10: RETURNS IN

Alcaraz 72% (499/691)
Djokovic 72% (376/523)

Dead heat. Expect right around three out of four returns to come back in the court.

11: RETURN WINNERS

Alcaraz 16
Djokovic 10

This is a golden opportunity to send a message against a second serve that sits right in the zone for the returner to crush it. Unload with a big winner and get the crowd right behind you.

12: RETURNS WON VS 1ST SERVES

Alcaraz 35%
Djokovic 33%

The returner will win one out of every three points against a first serve today. It’s always hard to really move this needle here. The first serve is just so dominant.

13: RETURNS WON VS 2ND SERVES

Alcaraz 50%
Djokovic 54%

This is a significant stat in Novak’s favor. When you see second serves, you have got to make the most of them. Novak is proving he is on point to the final here.

14: BREAK POINTS WON

Alcaraz 46%
Djokovic 35%

With so many other metrics so close, this stands out as a real advantage for Alcaraz. He is in great form coming into the final, taking advantage of his break point opportunities.

15: RETURN GAMES WON

Alcaraz 32%
Djokovic 25%

This is a significant stat in the final outcome. With their form leading into the final, Alcaraz must feel good about getting into Djokovic’s service games.

16: NET POINTS WON

Alcaraz 69% (148/216)
Djokovic 78% (243/284)

It’s no secret that Novak has been trying to keep points shorter at Wimbledon this year to protect his knee. Going to the net is an obvious way to do it, and he is crushing up there. Alcaraz’s total is also very healthy.

17: SERVE & VOLLEY POINTS WON

Alcaraz 66% (40/61)
Djokovic 87% (45/52)

These two players have combined to serve and volley 113 times to the final. Djokovic has only lost seven out of 52 points. When push comes to shove in the final, expect Djokovic to throw in some timely serve and volley points.

18: BASELINE POINTS WON

Alcaraz 50% (361/724)
Djokovic 50% (242/484)

It’s dead even here. It’s a little surprising that both players are not up in the 53%-55% range where you would expect them. In last year’s final, Djokovic only won 45%, and Alcaraz won 48%. This will once again be a very even tussle. If either player can win 50% from the baseline, then that would be considered a win.

SUMMARY

So many data points are almost identical for both players. In last year’s final, Alcaraz won 168 points, and Djokovic won 166. Expect something like that today.

Let’s hope for another epic five-setter!

Best,

Craig

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Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

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The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

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Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
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Doubles Situations

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