TENNIS , AUSTRALIAN OPEN, MELBOURNE PARK, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA, GRAND SLAM, HARD COURT, OUTDOOR, ITF, ATP, WTA, 2023, © TENNIS PHOTO NETWORK

Monday, 06 July 2026 / Published in Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon

Wimbledon 2026 – A Simply Shocking Statistic Has Emerged

G’day from Wimbledon,

It’s been a lot of fun this year to take traditional static match data – such as 1st & 2nd serve points won – and do something more with it this year at Wimbledon.

Traditional match data relies on basic PDF reports where match data sits in isolation from other matches. The match data does not communicate with other data points that often appear on the very same page. My new AI Tennis Data Dashboard centralizes every match, player, and stat in one place with instant navigation at your fingertips.

Also, hats off to IBM for upgrading their match data this year as well. We are all trying to push the envelope and find match metrics that tell a better story and more accurately describe what happens in a match.

Which brings me to this morning. I just found a data point that stopped me in my tracks. Let’s start with the men’s draw.

MEN 2026 Wimbledon – To Qtr Finals

MEN: 1st Serves

1st Serves Pts Won = 74%
1st Serve Pts Won / Return In Play = 56%

This is great news for the returner. If you can get the first serve back in play, you have a 44% chance of winning the point. That’s a huge deal and a nice jump from only winning 36% against all first serves, which would include aces and return errors. This makes me want to go and work on my slice return to make sure I can DEFEND against strong first serves and float them back into play. At least you are in the point, and at least you have moved up in the world from winning 36% to 44%. That’s the kind of data we need more of!

Jannik Sinner has won 69% (89/129) of points behind his first serve when the return comes back in play to the quarter-finals. He backs up a strong first serve with clean, efficient power groundstrokes that keep him ahead in the point.

Now, let’s take a look at what happens when the point starts with a second serve.

MEN: 2nd Serves

2nd Serve Pts Won = 51%
2nd Serve Pts Won / Return In Play = 45%

This is shocking. This stopped me in my tracks. We all need to slow down and absorb just how important this data really is. Second serves are essentially an even battlefield – even on the serve-friendly grass courts at SW19.

But the news gets even better for returners. If you put the second serve return in play, you now have an impressive 55% chance of winning the point. Tipping the scales that much in just one match metric is enough to win a substantial amount of matches over a season.

Taylor Fritz (60%) leads the pack of players who are still alive in the draw with second serve points won when the return comes back.

WOMEN 2026 Wimbledon – To Qtr Finals

WOMEN: 1st Serves

1st Serves Pts Won = 66%
1st Serve Pts Won / Return In Play = 51%

The women are winning two out of three first serve points so far at The Championships. That’s a normal number compared to recent years. But when you strip away aces and return errors and only focus on returns in play, the win proportion basically drops to an even battlefield.

That’s crazy and should lead to a flood of women’s players working on their defensive first-serve returns, focused on blocking and putting the return back in the court at all costs. Naomi Osaka leads the women’s draw in this specific statistic, winning 67% (55/82) of first serve points when the return is put back in play. Karolina Muchova is not far behind, winning 65% (64/99).

WOMEN: 2nd Serves

2nd Serve Pts Won = 47%
2nd Serve Pts Won / Return In Play = 42%

Everything about the second serve is bad news on the women’s tour. The ladies are winning only 47% of second-serve points (underwater) at Wimbledon this year. And when the return is put back in play, the win percentage plummets further, to 42%. It’s so tough to win a match when you are doing so poorly behind your second serve. Muchova is winning a sizeable 60% of points (43/72) behind her second serve when the return comes back into play.

SUMMARY

This data screams to coaches and players the need to work on a strong DEFENSIVE return, with a primary focus on putting more returns back in play. The return could be high and floating, or blocked back hard and low. It doesn’t matter. Give yourself the opportunity to break by putting one more return of serve back in play.

And the other side of the coin is to make sure you are not beating yourself by missing too many first serves. First serves in play protect the second serve and keep the overall win percentages higher.

Lastly, about the worst thing you can do is hit a second serve return in the net. Missing second serve returns is bad enough. But putting it in the net does not give you a chance at all to feast on second serve return points.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.