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What matters LEAST to winning?

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Tuesday, 28 July 2020 / Published in Dirtballer, Tennis

What matters LEAST to winning?

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G’day,

Let’s cut to the chase…

You want to win more matches now that tennis is starting to be played again.

More W’s. Less L’s.

The pandemic took away your tennis but you are now starting to get back on court a little.

There are many things to work on (serving, returning, rallying, approaching) so you definitely want to make sure you maximize your time on the practice court to start racking up W’s sooner than later. You need some kind of road map to make sure all of your time, effort, and dollars are spent wisely.

So what matters most to winning?

Great question! It is also important to know the answer at the other end of the spectrum.

What matters LEAST to winning?

When you examine everyone who won their match and compare their metrics to everyone that lost their match, what one statistic stayed around 50-50? What one analytical point stayed almost identical for the match winners and match losers?

I have the answer…

At Roland Garros in 2017, I compared 17 metrics “straight-up” between the player that won the match and the player that lost the match for both men and women. I wanted to know what metrics match winners did best at, and also what metrics really didn’t have an effect on the final outcome. You can find all of the data from that deep dive in Dirtballer.

Below are the 17 metrics that were recorded at Roland Garros that I was able to compare between the match-winner and the match loser.

Serving

Average 1st Serve Speed
Serving More Aces
First Serve Percentage
First Serve Points Won
2nd Serve Points Won
Serving Less Double Faults

Returning

1st Serve Return Points Won
2nd Serve Return Points Won

Strategy

Baseline Points Won
Net Points Won
More winners
Less unforced errors
Less forced errors
* Converting a higher percentage of break points

Rally Length

0-4 shots
5-8 shots
9+ shots

* Converting a higher percentage of break points needs clarification. For example, the match loser may have converted 2/3 = 67%. The match winner may have converted 10/20 = 50%. So in this instance, the match loser would “win” this metric as 67% > 50%.

Where should you be spending LESS of your energy preparing to win matches? Which metric matters the least to winning matches?

Here’s your answer! 👇

ANSWER

The LEAST most important metric that helped the match-winner create an advantage over the match loser was Average 1st Serve Speed.

It came in dead last for both men and women.

Remember, the data points start at 50% vs 50% and separate up and down from there. Here’s an example. Let’s say we get data from 10 matches, and the match-winner, on average, hit a bigger first serve than the match loser eight times out of 10. Then the percentage for this match metric would be at 80%, showing a very high correlation between winning the match and hitting harder 1st serves.

But it wasn’t 80%. It wasn’t anywhere near 80%. Here’s the men’s & women’s metrics:

MEN = 50.8%

Average Serve Speed

Match Winner = 181.8km/h
Match Loser = 180.9km/h

WOMEN = 51.7%

Average Serve Speed

Match Winner = 155.3km/h
Match Loser = 154.7km/h

This means that out of all the matches played the match loser averaged hitting their 1st serve at almost exactly the same speed as the match loser. There was only a minuscule advantage. It came in dead last place as having influence over winning and losing.

So what’s the real message here…?

If you want to win more matches, absolutely, positively don’t think that adding five or ten or 15 miles per hour (if that’s even physically possible) is the key. It’s clearly not. Putting your focus on something that finishes in dead last place is not going to help you win more matches.

Here’s a bonus for you…

How do you think aces ranked in the big picture? Do you think that the player that hit the most aces won their match almost all the time?

Aces were ranked as the 13th best metric out of 17 for the women and 14th best for the men. In both cases, the match winner hit only about one more ace on average over the match loser.

Do not be the player that is trying to add 15mph to your serve because you think you will win a lot more.
Do not be the player trying to bomb more aces because you think you will win more.

There are far more important things to focus on than those two bottom dwellers…

The full ranked list of 17 metrics for both men and women is available in the strategy course, Dirtballer. They are the ultimate guide to help you organize your practice court.

For example, the strategy that was first for the men had a whopping 89% correlation between winning this specific battle and winning the match. Hitting a faster first serve was just 50.8% for the men and 51.7% for the women. Not even in the same conversation.

Important research like this will help you practice smarter, which heavily contributes to winning more matches.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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