Sunday, 31 August 2025 / Published in Novak Djokovic, US Open

What Has Happened To Novak Djokovic’s 2nd Serve?

G’day,

Novak Djokovic last won the US Open in 2023, defeating Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 in the final. This was the last Grand Slam trophy Djokovic has held. He won six of his seven matches in 2023 in straight sets. He went down two sets to love against Laslo Djere in the third round before prevailing 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3

Since the 2023 US Open, he has only made the finals in one out of seven Grand Slam events. 2023 was the year of the Super Serb.

2023 GRAND SLAMS

WON Australian Open
WON Roland Garros
RUNNER UP Wimbledon
WON U.S. Open

Can Novak win the 2025 US Open? Maybe…

He plays red-hot Jan-Lennard Struff this evening on Arthur Ashe. If he gets through that, he most likely will play Taylor Fritz in the quarters, Carlos Alcaraz in the semi’s, and Jannik Sinner in the final. There is still a lot of tennis to be played in New York, and upsets often happen.

As I was looking at Novak’s progress through the draw, I stumbled across one statistic that stopped me in my tracks. Here it is.

UNRETURNED 2nd SERVES (2025 tournament average = 19%)

2023 = 19%
2025 (to 4th Rd) = 11%

The first thing to understand about these statistics is that they are likely to worsen for Novak as he progressively plays better and better players in his march to the title. Novak’s second serve was unreturned 19% of the time in 2023, which had him tied for 40th best for the tournament. A solid performance.

Novak’s second serve has been unreturned only 11% of the time in 2025, which ties him for 116th best in the tournament. Only eight players sit below him. Seven of the eight lost in the first round. Here’s a breakdown of Djokovic’s opponents this year returning his second serve.

2nd Serves Unreturned (2025)

Rd 1 vs L. Tien = 4/34 unreturned
Rd 2 vs. Z Svajda = 5/39 unreturned
Rd 3 vs. C. Norrie = 3/32 unreturned
Total = 12/105 (11%) unreturned

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT SERVING

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 12: Team Djokovic

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

Of the 16 players still left in the tournament, Djokovic sits in last place in this specific category. And it’s not even close.

Unreturned 2nd Serves (Rd 16 players)

37% – T. Machac
29% – C. Alcaraz
29% – L. Musetti
21% -A. Rublev
21% – F. Auger-Aliassime
19% – J. L. Struff
19% – J. Sinner
19% – A. De Minaur
18% – A. Rinderknech
17% – T. Fritz
17% – A. Mannarino
16% – J. Lehecka
16% – A. Bublik
16% – L. Riedl
15% – J. Munar
11% – N. Djokovic

This data does not bode well for the Serb. And part of it has to do with his declining second serve speed.

Average 2nd Serve Speed

2023 = 91.3 mph
2025 = 89.6 mph

Djokovic’s average second serve speed has declined by almost two miles per hour since 2013. Below is a comparison against the round of 16 players from this year.

2025 Rd 16 Players: Average 2nd Serve Speed

101.1 mph A. Rinderknech
97.5 mph A. Bublik
97.3 mph J. L. Struff
95.2 mph C. Alcaraz
95.1 mph F. Auger-Aliassime
94.9 mph J. Lehecka
94.1 mph L. Reidl
92.8 mph J. Sinner
93.3 mph L. Musetti
92.9 mph T. Fritz
92.1 mph A. De Minaur
91.3 mph N. Djokovic
89.3 mph T. Machac
87.6 mph A. Rublev
85.9 mph J. Munar
80.3 mph A. Mannarino

So, what does this all mean? Not much, or is it a warning sign of problems in his game?

Unfortunately for the four-time New York champion, it’s bad news. Here are four ways this can impact his game.

1: 12 Missed Returns From 105 2nd Serves

Djokovic’s opponents have only failed to put 12 2nd serve returns back in play in three matches. That’s not normal against Djokovic. He is not enjoying nearly as many free points from his second serve. It’s a significant difference from the 19% unreturned in 2023. More returns in play mean more pressure on his serve. The real battleground in tennis is when points start with a second serve. Djokovic is having to play more defensive points against more second serve returns. He has managed it through the first three rounds, but Tien, Svajda, and Norrie are considerably easier to defeat than Fritz, Alcaraz, and Sinner. You would anticipate that Djokovic’s second serve is going to get roughed up even more against Struff tonight.

2: 2nd Serve Points Won = 61%

This is a very impressive number, and it puts him in a tie for 5th place in the tournament. The tournament average is 50% won, so he is way ahead of that. Even though he is facing more of his second serves back in play, he is still managing to win the lion’s share of those points in the first three rounds. That’s a huge positive.

3: 2nd Serves On Break Points (5 of 12)

Djokovic has saved 8/12 break points he has faced so far. The problem for him is that five of the 12 break points started with a 2nd serve. He lost two of them. This math only gets more complicated against more formidable opponents. Djokovic has only made 61% of his first serves through his first three matches, which is well below his 2025 average of 68%. More faults on first serves equal more opportunities against his second serve. All of that math trends the wrong way for him.

4: Baseline Points Won

Djokovic is winning an extremely healthy 54% of baseline points through three matches. No disrespect to his opponents, but that number should be even higher. Having more of his second serves back in play means more baseline rallies, which in turn means more running, sliding, and defending – all of which progressively increase the risk of injury to the legs. Djokovic needs to play shorter points from now on. His second serve needs to protect the legs by extracting more return errors. It’s as simple as that.

It’s one match at a time for Djokovic from here on out. Tonight is Struff, who will be climbing all over Djokovic’s second serve. Let’s see how this one plays out. If Djokovic can pull through in three or four sets against the German, it will be an ideal preview to play either Fritz or Machac in the quarters. A place he knows all too well in the Big Apple.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.