Friday, 12 September 2025 / Published in Serve +2, US Open

What Exactly Is Serve +2?

Click HERE to register for the Serve +2 webinar on Wednesday Sep 17

G’day,

In 2013 I created my first online strategy course called The 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy. Rule number three is called Serve +1, which focuses on the connection between the serve and the first shot after the serve. It became a focus point from uncovering how many times Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer hit forehands as the first shot after the serve ( a lot).

So what exactly is Serve +2? Glad you asked…

There are three components you need to understand.

1: THE HALO EFFECT OF THE SERVE

The first serve is the “big hammer” that starts the point. Seconds serves are typically a 50-50 proposition for most players.

So, in general, how long does the halo effect of the serve last before the contest between the server and returner battle evenly in the point?

The answer is two shots. The server gets to play an aggressive serve, and they get to play more offensively on the following two shots, which are Serve +1 & Serve +2.

You can extrapolate that out to saying that there is no real benefit for the server to hit more than two shots after their serve. Their early advantage in the point has expires.

2: FIVE SHOT RALLIES

It’s important to understand that the server can only win odd numbered rallies, and the returner can only win even numbered rallies. Rally length is counted by the ball landing IN – not from hitting the strings.

Here’s an example.

The server hits the ball in, the returner hits the ball in, and the server hits a winner. That’s a rally length of three.
The server hits the ball in, the returner hits the ball in and the server commits an error. That’s a rally length of two. Only two balls landed in the court.

So let’s talk about a five shot rally. Only the server can win it. And there are two ways to do it.

The server hits a winner on the fifth shot.
The returner makes an error on the sixth shot = only five balls landed in the court.

How often do five-shot rallies happen in a match? Well, they are the third most popular way the server collects their points.

Below is a breakdown of 65 matches from 2023 from Carlos Alcaraz. You will see five-shot rallies rank third in volume for the Spaniard.

Five-shot rallies account for 14% of total serve points won for Alcaraz.

I have a general rule when prioritizing stats like this one. If the percentage is in double digits – such as 14% here – then it gets my immediate attention. So that applies for one, three and five shot rallies for the server.

3: THE BEST FIVE-SHOT PATTERNS

Tennis looks like a game of pinball. It’s not. It’s a game of repeatable patterns, and five-shot rallies have winning patterns of play that the best players in the world employ.

The server must hit three shots in the court for a five-shot rally. That’s a serve and two extra shots, which could be groundstrokes or finishing at the net with volleys and overheads.

In Webinar 71: Serve +2, you are going to see dozens of points from the elite men and women in the world running the best five-shot patterns. Can you copy and paste these patterns for your own game? You absolutely can! You will just do it at a lower speed than the pro’s.

SUMMARY

You will increase your chances of winning the point if your have a plan before it starts. We all have a general idea where we want this serve to go, but not so much the two shots that follow. Once you learn the statistics behind five-shot rallies, and see the best patterns of play, you will be ahead of the game with how you want to construct points when serving.

Click HERE to register for the Serve +1 Webinar on Wednesday September 17.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.