Tuesday, 15 April 2025 / Published in Alex De Minaur, Carlos Alcaraz, Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Berrettini, Monte Carlo, Serving, Stefanos Tsitsipas

Should you serve ONLY to the backhand?

Lorenzo Musetti reached his maiden Masters 1000 final in Monte Carlo last week, and his ATP ranking jumped five spots up to #11 in the world.

Let’s examine Musetti’s first-serve location during his six matches and see if we can uncover patterns for our own game.

RD1: MUSETTI def. BU 4-6, 7-5, 6-3

Deuce Ct T = Won 81% (22/27)
Ad Ct Wide = Won 63% (15/24)

Musetti was preying on Bu’s backhand return in this match. In fact, 51 serves went to the backhand corner, while only six went to the body and 12 were a mix to the forehand.

IMPROVE YOUR SERVE – HOLD MORE SERVICE GAMES

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 11: Break Points & Tie-Breaks

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

RD2: MUSETTI def. LEHECKA 1-6, 7-5, 6-2

Deuce Ct Wide = Won 57% (12/21)
Ad Ct T = Won 56% (10/18)

This match was all about directing first serves to the forehand return. Musetti’s win percentages were not great to these spots, with both locations being under 60%. But when he went to the opposite side of the service box as a surprise to the backhand, he won a remarkable 18/20 points.

RD3: MUSETTI def. BERRETTINI 6-3, 6-3

Deuce Ct T = Won 80% (16/20)
Ad Ct Wide = Won 66% (10/15)

Everything – absolutely everything – went to Berrettini’s backhand return. Musetti didn’t care if Berrettini knew it – the win percentages were too appetizing. This location would also help to feed Musetti’s potent Serve +1 forehand. Musetti won 19/26 points (73%) when he started the point with a Serve +1 forehand and 60% (6/10) when he started the point with a Serve +1 backhand.

QTR FINAL: MUSETTI def. TSITSIPAS 1-6, 6-3, 6-4

Deuce Ct T = Won 68% (23/34)
Ad Ct Wide = Won 56% (18/32)

Only four first serves out of 75 were not directed straight at the backhand return. Preying on the comparatively weaker serve side worked a treat in the previous round against Berrettini. Musetti just hit copy/paste for this match.

SEMI: MUSETTI def. DE MINAUR 1-6, 6-4, 7-6

Deuce Ct T = Won 58% (14/24)
Ad Ct Wide = Won 56% (9/16)

De Minaur is well-known for having a stronger backhand than forehand, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see Musetti primarily directing his first serve to the backhand wing in the Deuce and Ad courts.

FINAL: ALCARAZ def. MUSETTI 3-6, 6-1, 6-0

Deuce Ct T = Won 63% (12/19)
Ad Ct Wide = Won 33% (3/9)

It’s surprising that Musetti did not mix more to keep Alcaraz guessing. Only two first serves in the Deuce court went body (barely), and no body serves in the Ad court. If Alcaraz knows where your serve is going, you are already in the hot seat.

MUSETTI SIX MATCHES COMBINED

Musetti was not interested in messing around with his serve location in Monte Carlo.

82% of deuce court first serves went right down the T, and 74% of first serves went out wide in the Ad court. That’s a bucket-load to the right-handed backhand return of his opponents. The only time he switched was to stay away from Lehecka’s stronger backhand return.

SUMMARY

There are three main takeaways from this analysis.

1: Targeting the backhand return.

In five of the six matches, Musetti favored serving down the T in the Deuce court and out wide in the Ad court. He wanted to attack the backhand return as much as possible, which typically brings the ball back to his aggressive Serve +1 combo. It makes perfect sense in Monte Carlo and also in competitive matches at tennis clubs all over the world.

2: Fixating on the backhand return.

Against Tsitsipas and Berretti combined, Musetti hit 101 of 105 first serves right at the backhand corner of the service box on each side. He was “all in” with this strategy. He wanted backhand return errors and weak backhand returns back in play that he could attack.

3. Serve to the forehand return

Let’s not forget the Lehecka match, where Musetti served to the forehand return on purpose. Why? Becuase the Czech has got rock-solid return technique on the backhand wing and Musetti chose to stay away from it as much as possible.

These first-serve principles served Musetti well and got him within a set of the title. Lock in like Lorenzo for success at your level as well.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Should you serve ONLY to the backhand?