Sunday, 28 June 2026 / Published in Serena Williams, Wimbledon

Serena’s Secret SW19 Sauce = 2nd Serve Return Carnage

G’day from Wimbledon,

Forty-four-year-old Serena Williams is baaaaack.

The seven-time champion will be back playing on Center Court on Tuesday against 20-year-old Australian Maya Joint. They are third match on Center after 1.30 pm.

First, a little info about Joint. She is having a rough year on tour. She lost first round at the Australian Open, which kicked off a nine-match losing streak that extended all the way to Roland Garros. Overall, she has only won one tour match since Melbourne, while bowing out in the first round 12 times. Not exactly the preparation desired to take on Serena in the big house.

What will be the most important element of the match for Joint to be able to hang with Serena? Taking care of her second serve.

Serena has won Wimbledon seven times. She first took the title in 2002, then 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016.

I aggregated her impressive data from all seven of her title-winning years and uncovered what makes her so dominant here at SW19.

SERENA SERVING & RECEIVING

There are four ways a point starts in tennis. Your first and second serve, and your opponent’s first and second serve. If you can win three of those mini-battles, then you will win the match. Here are Serena’s numbers from her title-winning years.

Serena Points Won

1st Serve Points Won = 81%
2nd Serve Points Won = 52%
1st Serve Return Points Won = 39%
2nd Serve Return Points Won = 58%

1st Serve Points Won

Serena has one of the most technically sound service motions in the history of our sport (male or female). I regularly use her motion as the benchmark of how the lower and upper body work together, and the timing of when to toss the ball (early) and the height of contact. It’s so smooth and so powerful.

Serena is tied for the fourth-fastest women’s serve hit at Wimbledon.

Fastest Women’s Serves At Wimbledon

129 mph – Venus Williams (2008)
128 mph Ludmila Samsanova (2025)
128 mph – Venus Williams (2010)
126 mph – Venus Williams (2007) & Serena Williams (2004)

This is a major reason Serena has won slightly north of 80% of first-serve points. It’s a cannon, and quite often faster than many men’s serves at SW19.

2nd Serve Points Won

It’s surprising that Serena has won barely more 2nd-serve points than she has lost in the seven years she has gone on to take the title. She has won 52% of second serve points, which is barely above water. But that’s actually better than you think.

In last year’s Championships, the tournament average for second serve points won was a lowly 45%. Last year’s finalist, Amanda Anisimova, only won 50% of her second serve points, as did 2022 champion Elena Rybakina.

Your goal at every level of the sport is not to break even and not to bleed points on your first serve. The men’s average for second serve points won is only 52%.

1st Serve Return Points Won

The 2025 women’s tournament average for 1st serve return points won was just 35%. Essentially, one out of every three return points played. Serena is significantly higher in the specific metric, winning 39%. This is one metric where you hope to “steal” as many points as you can without actually winning this mini-battle. The first serve is simply too dominant.

2nd Serve Return Points Won

Yes, I have saved the best for last.

This is THE area where Serena gains a significant advantage over her rivals during her Championship years.

She is winning a head-turning 58% of her second serve return points. She is taking her opponent’s second serve and shredding it. No matter how good you are in other areas, if you are only winning 42% of your second serve points, it’s almost impossible to win the match. This is the beating heart of her victories.

Serena likes to stand up around the baseline and intimidate you. The chance of double-faulting against Serena is higher than normal because she is so aggressive with her court position and the power of the return.

Serena loves to crush the second serve return and end the point before it begins. She takes a short backswing off both sides and hits the return with authority, immediately extracting Serve +1 errors. It’s a masterful tactic to swing hard first and ask questions later.

SUMMARY

Maya Joint is going to need a stellar day making first serves to protect her second serve. She needs to make around 70% of her first serves to stand a fighting chance. This will help reduce her second-serve exposure, where Serena will undoubtedly bring the heat. This is a match where you need to take a little off your first serve to get as many in as possible. Even if your first serve smells more like a second serve, it’s still a better way to start the point for the Aussie.

It’s going to be fascinating to see if playing Serena on the grandest court in our sport helps Maya rise to the occasion and score one of the biggest wins of her career, and get her out of her form slump this year.

The other narrative is simply figuring out whether Serena can still compete on the biggest stage at 44 years of age. She has not won a match at Wimbledon since 2019, when she lost the final 6-2, 6-2 to Simona Halep. She has subsequently lost in the opening round in 2021 and 2022.

Serena can lean on her incredible career at Wimbledon to inspire her performance.

Serena At Wimbledon

Matches Won – 98 (88%)
Matches Lost – 14 (12%)
Sets Won – 201 (82%)
Sets Lost – 44 (18%)
Games Won – 1409 (63%)
Games Lost – 819 (37%)
Tie-Breaks Won – 12 (55%)
Tue-Breaks Lost – 10 (45%)

Let’s hope for a thrilling three-setter!!!

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.