G’day, From Roland Garros
It’s time to take the pulse of the tournament after the first three rounds. Specifically, how are things going for players at the baseline and at the net? Here are the tournament averages.
Baseline Win Percentages (1st 3 Rds)
- Men = 47%
- Women = 48%
Net Win Percentages (1st 3 Rds)
- Men = 65%
- Women = 63%
The baseline is a statistical nightmare. Any average below 50% represents a significant challenge for players to manufacture strong win percentages.
But the net is doing just fine, with win percentages of 63% for women and 65% for men.
Which brings me to my point…
Universally, people have it in their heads that going to the net is not really a great idea…
AND…
The more you go in, the more you are likely to lose – not win. The perception is that if you really get serious about coming forward to finish points at the net, the opponent will figure you out and your win percentages will DROP. The consensus is that it’s better to dabble in net play rather than add it as a legitimate tool in your toolbox.
So I just put the theory to the test.
I created a dataset for men that only included players who have come to the net 75 times or more through the first three rounds. The data set yielded 22 players. These players are serious about coming forward. 75 times at the net is a lot through three matches.
So, according to the current school of thought, the win percentage for these 22 players should be LESS than the tournament average because they are somewhat overdosing on this illegitimate strategy.
Here’s the facts…
Net Points Won
- Men Tournament Average = 65% won
- Men Coming In 75x or more = 69% won
The 22 players who came to the net 75 times or more (the highest was 139) performed better than the rest of the tournament by four percentage points. So there goes another myth about our sport blown to smithereens.
2025 Roland Garros: Men Net Points 75+ Net Appearances
On the women’s side, the tournament average was 63% points won. I looked at women who had come to the net 40x or more through the first three rounds, and they stayed exactly the same at 63%. But that’s still a win for the net, because if they were not at the net, they would have been at the baseline, where the average win percentage plummets down to 48%.
2025 Roland Garros: Women Net Points 40+ Net Appearances
SUMMARY
The more you do something, the better you tend to get at it. Practice, practice, practice…
That is a common-sense theory, but for whatever reason, we apply the opposite logic for net play in our sport.
I can assure you, going to the net and winning two out of every three points beats the pants off staying back at the baseline and hopefully winning one out of every two points.
Cheers from the RG.
Craig