Wednesday, 26 July 2017 / Published in Wimbledon

Roger Federer exposes the biggest lie in tennis (Part 3/5)

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS.

The First 4 Shots Video

Roger Federer Exposes The Biggest Lie In Tennis

Part 1 HERE

Part 2 HERE

Serve & Volley. It has fallen off a cliff.

Back in the day, serve and volley used to dominate our sport. In 1997, when serve and volley was first recorded at Wimbledon, it counted for greater than 50% of all first serves AND half of all second serves. Serve and volley was an apex predator. And then it basically vanished from the planet. Consider these numbers:

1st Serve: Serve & Volley Points at Wimbledon

1997 = 66%
2011 = 8%

2nd Serve: Serve & Volley Points at Wimbledon

1997 = 50%
2011 = 3%

This is sweet music to detractors of serve and volley. These are the “I told you so” metrics for everyone that thinks serve and volley is a failed/outdated/irrelevant strategy. Serve and volley is universally NOT taught at junior academies all over the world – primarily because of these metrics at the top of the game.

These Wimbledon numbers wash right through our sport, empowering a generation of coaches (and therefore, players) to not bother about serve and volley. After all, isn’t it easier to just hit cross court groundstrokes all day long? Doesn’t everyone (players, coaches, parents) feel better when a promising junior is hitting a million balls, sweating, and grinding side-to-side from the back of the court?

Serve and volley is also much tougher to teach with eight kids on a court. It requires more attention, more “know-how”, more individual coaching on serve locations, movement, grip changes, first volley locations, defensive low volleys, etc…

Who can be bothered with that anymore, especially when nobody at Wimbledon even does it? Who wants to rock that boat?

Roger Federer does. That’s who…

Roger’s Wimbledon press conference was the focus of Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

Wimbledon Serve & Volley 1997 – 2017

Below is Table 1. It shows the incredible decline in serve and volley at The Championships behind both 1st and 2nd serves since serve and volley was first recorded in 1997.

TABLE 1: Wimbledon Tournament Average: Serve & Volley

Year	1st Serve	2nd Serve
1997	66%	50%
1998	52%	41%
1999	31%	27%
2000	32%	22%
2001	42%	29%
2002	39%	23%
2003	29%	17%
2004	26%	16%
2005	22%	12%
2006	17%	10%
2007	15%	8%
2008	13%	4%
2009	12%	6%
2010	10%	4%
2011	8%	3%
2012	8%	3%
2013	10%	4%
2014	10%	4%
2015	12%	6%
2016	10%	5%
2017	10%	5%

LITTLE SECRET: Table 1 is not the table that matters the most…

Table 1 is the result. It is the result of a lack of faith. It is the result of only having half the information. Table 1 clearly shows the abandonment of serve and volley at the elite level of our sport. It happened at Wimbledon, and it, therefore, trickled down and happened literally everywhere…

But what Table 1 does not show is WHY…

Why did players lose faith in serve and volley?
Why did they stop coming forward at the beginning of the point?
Finding out the WHY is the missing link…

There can always only ever be ONE why. And that reason is the WIN PERCENTAGE.

Win percentages are everything in our sport. You see someone with some funk in their technique, but they win with it – hey, the funk is OK!

Win percentages are the wonderful reason we have different tactics, different styles, different strokes in our sport – that can all be successful. If you can make it work, then more power to you…

Serve & Volley Win Percentages

This is where the rubber meets the road. This is the MOST IMPORTANT table.

IF the win percentages of serve and volley dropped dramatically, then you can completely understand players not employing it. If players stopped winning with it, then they rightfully should stay back more at the baseline when serving.

Here’s the most important table of all. A table that as far as I know, has never been published…

TABLE 2: Wimbledon Tournament Average: Serve & Volley 1st Serve Win Percentages

Year	1st Serve S&V Percentage Played	1st Serve S&V Percentage Won
1997	66%	70%
1998	52%	71%
1999	31%	55%
2000	32%	62%
2001	42%	71%
2002	39%	71%
2003	29%	69%
2004	26%	69%
2005	22%	71%
2006	17%	71%
2007	15%	68%
2008	13%	69%
2009	12%	70%
2010	10%	72%
2011	8%	69%
2012	8%	69%
2013	10%	71%
2014	10%	72%
2015	12%	74%
2016	10%	68%
2017	10%	69%

Oh, dear…

1997 – 2017 AVERAGE WIN PERCENTAGE = 69.1%

Players have universally abandoned a strategy that has never abandoned them.

Table 2 just unequivocally vindicated Roger Federer’s comments that more players should serve and volley at Wimbledon (and in general). He knows why. BECAUSE IT WORKS!

1998: Serve & Volley 1st Serves = 52%. WIN percentage = 71%
2013: Serve & Volley 1st Serves = 10%. WIN percentage = 71%

Pleaseeee let this sink in…

It does not matter if you do it a little (2013).

It does not matter if you do it a lot (1998).

It works!!!! It always has, and it always will! Both years had a win percentage of 71%.

Serve & Volley. We owe you a huge apology. Roger never stopped believing, and neither should the rest of us.

TOMORROW

Just how well does the win percentages of serve and volley stack up against baseline play, and finishing points at the net from approaching? These win percentages should be driving our practice courts much more than any other single metric.

Tomorrow, you get them all. I got you covered 🙂

Ciao,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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