Monday, 01 September 2025 / Published in US Open

Pegula v Krejcikova. 7 Things That Matter In Their US Open Qtr Final

G’day!

Jessica Pegula is the No. 4 seed and has only dropped 16 games in eight sets leading into the quarterfinal. En fuego!

Barbora Krejcikova has just won back-to-back three-set battles, including saving eight match points yesterday against Taylor Townsend.

This US Open quarter-final is going to be a good one. Both players are rock-solid and will look to build the point before finding the right ball to vaporize.

Here are seven things to look for in this blockbuster last-eight match. Keep in mind, Krejcikova has played 10 sets so far, while Pegula has played just eight.

1: PRIZEMONEY (It’s a lot)

Typically, you set aside the money and focus on the tennis. Not this time.

Whichever player loses this match, they will take home $660,000 for reaching the quarterfinals. That’s a big dollar paycheck, anyway you slice it. But there’s more…

The winner of this match will be $ 1.26 million richer. That’s almost DOUBLE what the loser of this match will get. US Open prize money has spiked this year. Here’s the breakdown of what they have now, and what’s possible later in the week.

Quarter-finals = $660,000
Semi-finals = 1,260,000
Finals = 2,500,000
Winner = 5,000,000

This is the first time two women will play for a five-million-dollar prize. It’s life-changing.

Here’s the deal. The player who can tuck the dollar signs into the back recesses of their mind will do better than the one who focuses on it. You have got to keep your mind in the present.

GET MENTALLY TOUGHER IN COMPETITION

Course: Getting Tight

Webinar 48: Game Plans

Webinar 46: 8 Ways To Force An Error

Webinar 41: Opponent Awareness

Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play

2: SERVING (Advantage Pegula)

Pegula has 10 aces and only five double faults to the quarters. Krejcikova has 15 aces but has committed 20 double faults. The aces won’t be enough in this match to really matter, but the double faults certainly could be. Pegula has only lost serve seven times, while Krejcikova has dropped serve twice that amount, 14 times.

1st Serve Points Won

72% Pegula
68% Krejcikova

2nd Serve Points Won

48% Pegula
46% Krejcikova

Pegula maintains a slight edge in many of the essential serve metrics. Look for that to continue.

3. SERVING: BREAK POINTS (Even)

Saving break points when serving is where the rubber meets the road. Both players have performed well in these pressure-cooker moments.

1st Serve % On Break Points

72% Pegula
68% Krejcikova

1st Serve Points Won On Break Points

69% Pegula
70% Krejcikova

2nd Serve Points Won On Break Points

40% Pegula
36% Krejcikova

The only thing that may come into play is that Krejcikova is still brimming with confidence from saving the eight matchies yesterday. It’s house money from here on out if she can think that way.

4: RETURNING (Advantage Pegula)

The US Open is collecting a stat I have not seen before.

Deep Returns Won

66% (33/50) Pegula
50% (48/96) Krejcikova

Hitting the ball deep in general is one of the best things you can do on a tennis court. Doing it on a return of serve is even better! Pegula takes the edge in this specific metric.

Pegula is also performing considerably better at breaking serve.

Break Points Won

55% Pegula
47% Krejcikova

Both players have strong returns, but this tournament, this week, it’s Pegula who is feeling it the most.

5: BASELINE SUPERIORITY (Advantage Pegula)

Pegula is lighting up opponents from the back of the court in week one in New York.

Baseline Points Won

57% Pegula
48% Krejcikova

We all know that these two ladies are going to trade a lot of groundstrokes in their quarter-final tomorrow. Pegula has been the stronger of the two so far. Look for her to carry that dominance over to their quarter-final.

6: SERVE GAMES STARTING 15-0 (Advantage Pegula)

Getting off to a fast start by winning the first point of your service game is always an advantage. Tennis is a sport where scoreboard pressure rewards you for getting ahead.

Service Games Starting 15-0

72% Pegula
62% Krejcikova

Service Games Held From 15-0

91% Pegula
86% Krejcikova

You get the feel that Pegula is just a little bit better than Pegula all over the court, even getting off to the best start in her own service games.

7: BREAK RIGHT BACK (Advantage Pegula)

The old-school saying is that you have not really broken serve until you hold your own serve in the next service game.

57% (4/7) Pegula
45% (5/11) Krejcikova

Pegula is again inching her rival. Pegula has been broken less and holds a superior break percentage right after being broken.

SUMMARY

In many ways, Krejcikova is “lucky” to be here, having to save eight break points against a charging Taylor Townsend in their round of 16 match. Krejcikova painted the line a couple of times when facing elimination. Another inch wider and it would have been Townsend in this battle.

However, you often see players loosen up and play freely and relaxed when they save match points in previous rounds. Krejcikova could very well come out loose as a goose and play the best tennis of her life. In many ways, this match is a free pass for her.

With all that being true, Pegula is ticking all the right boxes. She is dominating her opponents by combining aggressive play with consistent rallies that leave her opponents with low percentage options to go for their shots.

I think Pegula gets there in three sets.

Have a great match, ladies!

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.