Wednesday, 16 April 2025 / Published in 0-4 Shots, ATP Finals, Milos Raonic, Novak Djokovic

Novak’s Bullseye = 2nd Serve Returns

The bullseye was second serve returns. 🎯

If you seek to understand the myriad of possibilities in a tennis match just like a dartboard, it will quickly become clear that second serve returns live dead in the middle. Novak Djokovic defeated Milos Raonic 7-6(6), 7-6(5) at the 2016 ATP Finals by playing even in almost every aspect of the match except the Canadian’s second serve.

Raonic only lost seven points on his first serve in two long sets, winning 38 of 45 points mainly due to incredible power and accuracy. But when he missed his first serve, Raonic’s win percentage plummeted from 84% on first serves to just 36% (12/33) on second serves.

Djokovic only won two more points than Raonic for the match (85 to 83), but managed to win 21 of Raonic’s second serve points, to just 12 for the Canadian.

Djokovic’s return placement on second serve returns was almost exclusively straight back to Raonic’s backhand, where Djokovic immediately neutralized the rally and got to work on extending it.

Only five second serve returns in 12 return games from Djokovic landed in the Deuce court, with 21 returns directed straight to Raonic’s backhand in the Ad court. Overall, 48% of Djokovic’s second serve returns landed in the outer third of the Deuce court, 45% in the middle third, and just seven percent in the outer third on the Deuce side.

IMPROVE YOUR SERVE & HOLD MORE

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 11: Break Points & Tie-Breaks

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

“I just managed to stay committed and put pressure on his second serves,” Djokovic said post-match. I had a couple of looks on his second serves midway through, towards the end of both tiebreaks, which helped obviously to get into the rally. I knew once I get into the rally, I have a better chance to win the point.”

The plan was ridiculously simple.

Defend the first serve.
Attack the second serve.
Lengthen the point to extinguish the early firepower.

All night long, Raonic did everything possible to crush as many forehands as possible and limit his exposure to his backhand. Overall, Raonic hit 172 forehands and just 108 backhands, while Djokovic was far more even, hitting 156 forehands and 127 backhands.

Raonic’s average forehand speed for the match was 78mph, just three mph faster than Djokovic at 75mph. On the backhand wing, Djokovic averaged 65mph to Raonic’s 63mph, but if you take out the purposefully slower slice backhands, Raonic actually averaged hitting his drive backhand slightly harder at 71mph, to 70mph for the Serb.

Djokovic kept his backhand tactics very simple, directing 79% back cross court while mixing 21% down the line to try and catch the Canadian maneuvering too far over in the Ad court pursing his run-around forehand.

A vital ingredient in Djokovic’s overall game plan was to keep the Canadian from dictating with his powerful forehand from around the baseline and finishing strongly at the net. The Serb’s mixture of depth, direction, and consistency was a nightmare for Raonic from the back of the court.

Against Gael Monfils in the opening round robin match, Raonic made contact with 37%of his shots inside the baseline. Against Djokovic, it was less than half, at just 18%. Against Monfils, Raonic made contact with the ball 25% of the time deeper than two metres behind the baseline, but that jumped up to 32% against Djokovic. Against Monfils, Raonic won 83% (20/24) approaching, but only 40% (6/15) against the World No. 2.

With so many subplots happening in a match, you have to know where to pick your battles. Players at all levels of the game would be wise to follow Djokovic’s lead and double down their focus and intensity when returning second serves.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

SIGN IN YOUR ACCOUNT TO HAVE ACCESS TO DIFFERENT FEATURES

FORGOT YOUR DETAILS?

Novak’s Bullseye = 2nd Serve Returns