Saturday, 26 February 2022 / Published in ATP Tour, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Nadal

Nadal def. Medvedev. The 3 Strategic Reasons Why.

DROPPERS. S&V. RUN-AROUNDS.

Rafael Nadal defeated Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-3 in the semi-finals of the ATP500 Acapulco Open on Friday night.

The scoreboard looks fairly routine. It was far from it. The first thing to understand is that Nadal converted 3/6 break points, while Medvedev went… wait for it… 0/11. 0 for California. 0 for the agave farm. If Medvedev converts a few of those bad boys, the match could have been his. It was a high-quality encounter that Nadal managed to near perfection. Too much experience. Too much confidence when the match was on the line.

Three strategic elements of this match really stood out. They were:

18 serve & volley points.
24 drop shots.
63% forehand groundstrokes for Nadal / 51% forehand groundstrokes for Medvedev.

So, let’s unpack each of these to understand better how they affected the final outcome.

1: 18 SERVE & VOLLEY POINTS

We must first rewind to their 2019 US Open final, which Nadal won 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4. It was actually a festival of serve & volley!

2019 US Open: Serve & Volley Points In The Final

Nadal won 17/20
Medvedev won 22/29

It’s essential to know these two have some serious history regarding breaking out “old school” serve and volley tactics. They combined for a staggering 49 serve & volley points in New York. They were up to their shenanigans again in Acapulco.

2022 Acapulco Semi-Final

Nadal won 7/8
Medvedev won 5/10

Rafa was the big winner here. In the opening set, Medvedev won 4/6, while Nadal didn’t serve & volley at all. In the second set, Rafa ramped up the pressure at the front of the court, winning 7/8, while Medvedev only won 1/4. Why do these two BOTH gravitate to serve and volley when they play each other?

One reason. PAIN.

The pain that I am specifically talking about is the lactic acid-inducing pain of running ragged side-to-side at the back of the court. Both are hellaciously good from the baseline, pounding forehands and backhands ad nauseam. They need a break from that pounding. They need to win some quick points and surprise the opponent. That’s why they love to sneak straight to the net. For relief. For instant gratification.

2: 24 Drop Shots

This is a lot for two sets of tennis, and once again, Nadal got the better of Medvedev with this specific tactic.

2022 Acapulco Semi-Final

Nadal won 7/9
Medvedev won 8/15

Medvedev won two of five in the opening set, so it wasn’t working for him early on. But then he went on a tear, winning six straight drop shots at the beginning of set two before losing the last four he attempted. I see this a lot with drop shots. You do really well with them, and then the opponent figures out your sneaky plans, and the winning quickly evaporates.

Nadal won all three drop shots in the opening set and four of six in set two. Towards the end of the match, Medvedev lost the last four drop shot points he attempted, while at the same time, Nadal won all three of his.

The reason both players drop shot so much is for much the same reasons they both went with serve & volley. They are so evenly matched when trading blows baseline-to-baseline that they look for a slight edge elsewhere. An easier way to win a point. A surprise element. A little Houdini. Drop shots certainly qualify for that.

3: 63% FOREHANDS FOR NADAL

Firstly, you need to know that there are TWO types of forehands. Let’s use Nadal as an example. There is his “normal” forehand, where he hits forehands standing in the Ad court. Remember, Nadal is a lefty, so he would typically hit forehands standing in the Ad court and backhands standing in the Deuce court. But who are we kidding? This is Rafael Nadal, who only hits backhands when he absolutely has to. Nadal hit 63% (124) forehands and 37% (74) backhands in the match. Nobody runs around backhands to hit forehands more in the history of our sport than Rafa.

Nadal’s Forehands

82 normal forehands (standing in the Ad court)
42 run-around forehands (standing in the Deuce court)

Nadal hit 34% of all forehands as a run-around in the Deuce court. All of those balls were directed to Nadal’s backhand by Medvedev, but Rafa ran around them and upgraded to a bigger, more potent forehand.

Run-Around Forehands (42)

2 winners
2 errors
38 in play

Normal Forehands (82)

3 winners
13 errors
66 in play

Nadal Backhands (74)

4 winners
6 errors
64 in play

Nadal’s normal forehands – standing in the Ad court – yielded the most errors out of the three categories with 13 errors. Take a look at how good the run-around forehand performance was. What I should have also “tagged” was how many errors he forced from those run-around forehands. It would have been a sizeable amount.

This is a very smart strategy adjustment from the 2022 Australian Open final, where Rafa did not dine enough on run-around forehands standing in the Deuce court. He hit too many backhands, with way too many being slice backhands. That was a big reason why he fell in such a hole down two sets and some change in Melbourne.

While Nadal hit 63% forehands in Acapulco, Medvedev only hit 51% (100 forehands / 96 backhands). Here’s Medvedev’s performance in the same categories we analyzed Nadal in.

Run-Around Forehands (20)

0 winners
1 error
19 in play

Normal Forehands (80)

3 winners
14 errors
63 in play

Medvedev Backhands (96)

9 winners
18 errors
69 in play

Medvedev is not nearly as thirsty for run-around forehands as Nadal is. Only 20% of Medvedev’s forehands were run-around, while Nadal was at 34%. Many balls went right down the middle of the court, and Medvedev could have hit them as a forehand but settled for a backhand. Medvedev’s backhand let him down at the finish line. He committed an error on four of his last five backhands of the match.

Summary

Serve and volley and drop shots are typically “secondary” patterns of play that are sprinkled throughout a match to surprise opponents. They became a significant part of this match, with Nadal getting the better of Medvedev in both categories. And then you have Nadal feasting on forehands from all over the back of the court. Nadal had to wriggle out of some long service games, facing multiple break points. A point here and a point there, and this result could have been very different.

Nadal is flying high right now, winning 14 straight matches to start the season, which is the best of his career. He is currently ranked No. 5 and has nothing to defend from Indian Wells and Miami. He is also only defending semi-finals in Madrid and Monte Carlo.

Is Rafa already working his way back up to the No. 1 ranking?

One thing is for sure.

Never, ever count Rafa out.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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