Sunday, 15 March 2026 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Indian Wells, Serving

Medvedev d Alcaraz. How? 2nd Serves To The Forehand

G’day from Indian Wells,

Second serves to the forehand.

Daniil Medvedev stunned world #1, Carlos Alcaraz, 6-3, 7-6(3) in the semi-finals of Indian Wells yesterday with a masterclass in serve strategy.

Medvedev’s first serve performance was good. He made 59% of first serves and won 64%. That keeps you in the hunt.

Medvedev’s second serve performance was other-worldly. He won an astounding 74% (23/31) of his second serves while coughing up no double faults. This was the beating heart of his upset in the desert. On the second point of the match, Medvedev hit his initial second serve. They typically go to the backhand in the Ad court, either as a jam serve or as a kick out wide. That’s what I was expecting. No doubt that’s what Alcaraz was expecting to.

Nope.

Medvedev directed his second serve to the forehand return and jammed up Alcaraz, who was moving forward to attack. The Spaniard blew the return out the back of the court, and Medvedev’s master plan was underway.

Below is a video of every second-serve Medvedev hit in the match, broken down by points won and lost, and which return Alcaraz hit. It also features a 2-second “freeze” when Medvedev’s second serve hits the court, to better digest his serve direction.

2026 Indian Wells. All Medvedev 2nd serves to Alcaraz

Below is a Hawk-Eye analysis of where Medvedev’s second serves landed in the service box. It was an avalanche to the forehand return.

Hawk-Eye Graphic. Medvedev 2nd Serve Location v Alcaraz

Medvedev doubled down on the surprise tactic of serving to the more potent forehand return. On this occasion, he won the mental battle of second serve location by continuously going to the forehand return when Alcaraz kept expecting the second serve to the backhand.

Medvedev 2nd Serve Results

Won to the forehand return = 21
Lost to the forehand return = 4
Won to the backhand return = 2
Lost to the backhand return = 4
Total = 31

WIN MORE POINTS WHEN SERVING

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

Webinar 58: Serve +1 Approach

This is astounding. Medvedev went to the forehand return of Alcaraz and won 21/25 second serve points.

This is an excellent lesson for players at all levels of our sport (including the Top 10). Too often, we resort to a secondary strategy like Medvedev clearly did here and feel the need to switch up the pattern to prevent the opponent from understanding it.

Wrong.

The key here is to keep running the alternate strategy until… the opponent proves they can stop it!!!

In this case, Alcaraz never proved he could stop it, so Medvedev kept going to the well. Smrt.

From the start of the opening set to early in the second set, Medvedev won 12 straight points serving to Alcaraz’s forehand return with second serves. As you will see from the video above, some points developed well past the second serve, and you could certainly make a case that the second serve location really had nothing to do with who won the point several shots later.

While that is true, the serve location also has a lingering, almost hidden effect on the shots that follow. I would say both viewpoints have validity.

Here’s a point-by-point breakdown of Medvedev’s second serve points won and lost to the forehand and backhand return.

Won to the FH return
Lost to the BH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the BH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the BH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the BH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the FH return
Won to the BH return
Lost to the BH return
Won to the FH return
Lost to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return
Won to the FH return

This is a remarkable run that shows Medvedev had a plan, and he stuck to it.

The main benefit for Medvedev serving to the forehand was surprise. Alcaraz would naturally be expecting the second serve to the backhand. Alcaraz would mentally already be preparing for a backhand return in his mind, so Medvedev catches him preparing for a shot on the other side of his body. That’s going to make you late.

The other key here is that Alcaraz has a strong backhand return. He does not overhit it and will make a lot in play. Unless Alcaraz is having a day out with his forehand return, keep going with the mix pattern of play.

Will Medvedev adopt the same second serve strategy against Sinner in the final? I don’t see why he shouldn’t.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.