Tuesday, 10 March 2026 / Published in Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner, Joao Fonseca

Indian Wells – Fonseca v Sinner Tonight. Five Things To Look For.

G’day,

Just how good is Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca? We are going to find out in the desert tonight when he takes on world No. 2, Jannik Sinner, in the round of 16 at Indian Wells.

Here are five things to look for in today’s heavyweight battle, which is scheduled not before 6.00 pm local time. First of all, here’s their road to this blockbuster.

Jannilk Sinner

Rd 1 – bye
Rd 2 – def. Dalibor Svrcina 6-1, 6-1
Rd 3 – def. Denis Shapovalov 6-3, 6-2

Joao Fonseca

Rd 1 – def. Raphael Collignon 7-6(2), 6-4
Rd 2 – def. Karen Khachanov 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4
Rd 3 – def. Tommy Paul 6-2, 6-3

1: SINNER’S BACKHAND (93% IN)

Sinner has struck 115 backhands in his first two matches. He has only missed seven. SEVEN!

That’s simply ridiculous. I know the first two rounds were very straightforward, but still. The tour average for backhands in the court is 84%. Over the past 52 weeks, Sinner has been running at 87% in. That’s now skyrocketed to 93% in the court. Fonseca, on the other hand, has played three solid opponents and has averaged a credible 83% backhands in the court, only missing 41 from 320.

Both players will look to use their forehand as a battering ram to play through their opponent’s backhand wing. This is where Sinner will have the advantage. What Fonseca needs to do is run the 2-1 pattern, which means two balls to Sinner’s backhand to push him back and then wide, and then attack the vacant Deuce court to his running forehand.

Don’t go to the backhand to break it. Go there to open the other side of the court to attack.

2: FONSECA’S 2ND SERVE DIRECTION

Fonseca’s 2nd serve is going to come under attack from Sinner. The Brazilian has won a healthy 60% of his second-serve points in his first three matches. That’s very impressive. One of the main reasons why is his mix of serve locations.

Joao Fonseca: 2nd Serve Location

Sinner devours second serves. He has won 65% of second serve points in his first two matches, and will look to be on the front foot again against Fonseca. Look at the pic above – especially the Ad court. The Brazilian has mixed extremely well with his second-serve location, with 10 out wide, 11 at the body, and 13 down the T. He will need that good mix to keep Sinner guessing where the next one is going. If Sinner gets a read on Fonseca’s second serve, then that’s probably enough to turn the match to his favor all on its own.

3: BACKHANDS DOWN THE LINE

Here’s backhand direction for both players to the round of 16.

Fonseca Backhand Direction

37% cross court
31% middle
32% down the line

Sinner Backhand Direction

50% cross court
29% middle
21% down the line

As you see from the numbers above, Fonseca is far more likely to take a backhand down the line than Sinner is. He has hit 32% down the line compared to just 21% for Sinner. Sinner will look to hit backhands cross court all day long, but if he drops one short, Fonseca has the confidence to rip down the line to quickly turn the tables on the Italian. If there is one place that Sinner can be vulnerable, it’s running forehands, which is exactly where the backhand line will be aiming.

4: NET DOMINANCE

Sinner does not go to the net a lot, but when he does, he dominates.

Net Points Won

Sinner = 83% (19/23)
Fonseca = 61% (23/38)

Sinner is averaging going to the net around six times a set, while Fonseca is slightly less in the five range. Sinner can stay at that rate and feel comfortable doing it. I get the feeling Fonseca needs to present a really well-rounded strategy to keep Sinner from dialing in his game plan. Alcaraz uses variety perfectly against Sinner, and Fonseca will need to create a very similar game plan to the world No. 1, which will probably involve coming to the net more to pressure than he has in previous rounds.

5: BATTLE OF 0-4 SHOTS

Whoever wins the battle of short rallies in the 0-4 shot range will have the upper hand in the match.

0-4 Shot Rallies

Sinner 61% won (79/129)
Fonseca 51% win (144/285)

It’s important to note that Fonseca has played twice as many points in this rally length, and has done so against considerably tougher opponents. The serve, return, serve +1, and return +1 will be critically important for each player to gain an initial edge in the rally. The player who can remain above 50% here will be in the driver’s seat for this contest.

Sinner lost in the quarters of Doha to Jakub Mensik in his last tournament. The Italian is not at the peak of his powers to start 2026. Sinner only won 50% of the 0-4 shot rallies against Mensik.

Fonseca’s power game has the tools to dismantle Sinner in the desert later today.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.