Saturday, 06 September 2025 / Published in 0-4 Shots, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, US Open

Five Stats That Pinpoint Novak’s Decline

G’day,

Novak Djokovic is currently the third-best player on the planet.

Father time has caught up with him, and by his own admission, the brutal physicality of battling Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner over five sets has become an overwhelming obstacle.

Here are five key stats that Djokovic used to dominate his opponents. Now, they clearly highlight where he is struggling.

1: 0-4 SHOT RALLY LENGTH

Novak played almost two out of every three points (63%) in the 0-4 shot rally length at the 2025 US Open. It is incredible to think that Novak puts a maximum of just two shots in the court in the vast majority of points he plays, but that’s the reality of tennis at all levels.

Djokovic 2025 US Open Rally Length

0-4 Shots = 63.3%
5-8 Shots = 23.3%
9+ Shots = 13.4%

The other two longer rally lengths combined don’t even come close to the number of points he plays in the shorter rallies. After matches, we all obsess about the longer, more memorable rallies that we watched, and the shorter rallies tend to go into our short-term memory and are then easily forgotten.

To the semi-final against Alcaraz, Novak had amassed a 90-point advantage in the 0-4 rally length, winning 426 points while losing 347. In the semi, he got punished in this area, winning 56 points while losing 67. You can’t lose this critical match metric and expect to win the match.

Novak Djokovic 2025 US Open 0-4 Shot Rally Performance

Djokovic’s win/loss gap was far more dominant in shorter rallies than longer ones in New York.

0-4 shot rallies: 426 won/347 lost = +79
5-8 shot rallies: 147 won/138 lost = +9
9+ shot rallies: 90 won/74 lost = +16

Alcaraz was simply better in the first four shots of the point against Djokovic. It’s the serve, return, Serve +1, and Return +1 where the real gap exists.

2: BASELINE POINTS WON

Djokovic used to own the back of the court against all-takers. Not anymore.

It was a warning sign that Novak slightly lost the baseline battle against Taylor Fritz by four shots (69 to 73). Alcaraz was able to extend his dominance from the back of the court to an 11-point gap, winning 54 points to Djokovic’s 43.

Djokovic has been able to stretch opponents to all parts of the baseline for well over a decade. He is now a step slower. You can see it in his speed to get to a wide ball, and you can see it in his recovery. It’s perfectly normal, and it must be infuriating for him not to get to balls with the same ease he always has.

3: RETURN POINTS WON VS 1ST SERVES

Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner our sport has ever seen. He is incredibly elastic and wins points against first serves by using the power of the serve against the server. Not yesterday against Alcaraz.

Novak was only able to win eight points against Alcaraz’s 56 first serves (16%) that he landed. That’s one-way traffic for the Spaniard.

On the flip side, Alcaraz won 19 of 56 (34%) of his first serve returns against Djokovic. Alcaraz was more than twice as good in this all-important match metric. Winning points against first serves is all about fast-twitch reactions with the hands and feet. Novak’s age is taking its toll in this specific area of his game.

4: NET POINTS WON

At 38 years of age, Novak would be wise to take the battle more to the front of the court, where he would have a better chance of pressuring Alcaraz. Success at the front of the court didn’t happen.

Net Points Won

Djokovic = 54% (17/31)
Alcaraz = 68% (15/22)

Djokovic went to the net more than Alcaraz, but he was not able to do any real damage, barely winning half (54%) of his net points. Again, this part of the game is all about the speed of the hands and feet with reaction time. It wasn’t there with the same proficiency we have become accustomed to seeing.

5: SERVICE GAMES STARTING 15-0

Tennis is a game of getting ahead and applying scoreboard pressure as a secondary opponent. One way to tip things in your favor is to win the first point of your service game to create an advantage. Djokovic didn’t. Alcaraz did.

Surging Ahead 15-0 When Serving

Djokovic = 60% (9/15)
Alcaraz = 87% (13/15)

Alcaraz was almost always enjoying a 15-0 start to his service games. It helped keep the pressure out of his service games and prevented momentum from slipping the wrong way.

Alcaraz started 0-15 in two of his service games. He held both of them. Djokovic started 0-15 in six of his service games. He was broken in two of them.

SUMMARY

Djokovic is now 38 years old. Every single player on the tour would hope to still be as competitive as the Super Serb is at the same age. Indeed, many players have little chance of playing to the same age due to injuries accumulating over the years.

In many ways, there are only two players in Novak’s way at the moment. And it’s incredibly difficult for him to beat Alcaraz and Sinner over the rigors of five sets. Novak has a much better chance in a Masters event, where he can come out guns blazing in a best two-out-of-three format.

Djokovic can still win a Grand Slam, but he clearly needs help. He needs Sinner and Alcaraz to get upset or pick up a niggle as they progress through two weeks of a Grand Slam draw. Then, the 38-year-old becomes the favorite, and his dream of winning another major title becomes far more possible.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.