Monday, 08 June 2020 / Published in ATP Tour

Brand New Analysis: Losing Set 1

G’day,

The match begins, and you go down an early break. Your opponent has hit the ground running, and you have yet to find your game. This scenario happens all too often for players who have not created a strategic mission for how to start matches. Starting slow really puts us in a hole. In fact, starting slow matters more than we ever realized.

I recently wrote an Infosys analysis on exactly this dynamic on the ATP website, and it brings to light a percentage that I have never seen before in our sport.

If you lose the opening set, what are your chances of coming back and winning in three sets?

I have been involved in tennis all my life, but I have never seen this specific statistic, so I went to work last week digging it up. Here it is.

Losing Set 1 = 21.7% Chance of Winning in 3 Sets

So there you have it. You have approximately a 20% chance, or a 1-5 chance, of coming back and winning the match if you lose the opening set.

That’s pretty rough!

The data set includes all ATP tour players who played a minimum of 100 matches from 1991-2020. It excludes retirements and defaults.

Tennis is a sport where there is great benefit from playing from in front, which potentially activates the scoreboard as another opponent for the person standing on the other side of the net. You want to win the first point of the game, which helps set the weather for the rest of the game. You also want to win Set 1, because the hole you are now in by losing it is substantially deeper than we thought.

Only three ATP players were able to win more than 40% of their three-set matches after losing the opening set.

Pete Sampras = 41.33% (62/150)
Novak Djokovic = 41.30% (76/184)
Roger Federer = 40.17% (92/229)

It’s an incredible feat to be at roughly double the tour average (41% compared to 21.7%). Again, the tour average is winning right at one of five matches after dropping the opening set. Eight other players were able to improve their ratio to one out of three or better (>33.3%).

Lleyton Hewitt = 39.6%
Rafael Nadal = 39.1%
Andy Murray = 38.7%
Kei Nishikori = 35.9%
Stefan Edberg = 35.6%
Boris Becker = 35.0%
Michael Stich = 34.7%
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga = 33.7%

So how can we benefit from this new information? Glad you asked! 😁

Here are seven ways to improve your chances of winning Set 1.

#1 = A Great Warm-Up

You need to be ready to hit the ground running on the first point of the match. Doing all you can to win the opening set is vital. Let’s say your match is at 10.00 am. You need to have a great warm-up from around 9.00 am-9.30 am. Here are some variations for the warm-up.

When I was coaching Amer Delic on the ATP tour, he was not always the fastest starter in matches. So we experimented with warming up really close to the match. So he would essentially walk off the practice court around 9.55 am, grab a drink of water and a fresh shirt, and go and play at 10.00 am. He had just played 20 minutes of points right before his match, which was ideal for a fast start.
Make sure you adequately warm up serves and returns. Experiment with focusing most or all of your warm-up on serves and returns.

Make The Mental/Emotional Game A Strength

Webinar 13: How Not To Lose

Webinar 36: Make Better Decisions

Webinar 37: 25 Underrated Tactics

Webinar 41: Opponent Awareness

Webinar 43: Depth Before Direction

#2 Scout The Opponent In The Warm-Up

The five-minute warm-up with your opponent is not really about warming up your game. You have already taken care of that. It’s about reconnaissance and scouting and figuring out the exact patterns of play that you want to employ straight out of the gate once the match starts.

Pay attention to the mistakes they make. Pay attention to what locations they are serving to. It’s highly likely the serve locations that they serve to in the warm-up will be their “go-to” locations under pressure in the match. Pay attention to their volley grips. If the grip is too far eastern (to the forehand side), then low forehand volleys will be weaker and probably go straight into the net.

#3 Have A “Break First” Mantra

You need to plan for success. It doesn’t just land in your lap. Create a strong conviction to be the first player in the match to break serve. You want to hold and take care of your own service games and then beat them to the punch. Break their serve before they break yours.

#4 Must Break In First Two Return Games

This is a slight variation of #3. In this scenario, you are targeting your opponent’s first two service games. You have got to break at least one of them. Being the first to break is a big deal in a match.

#5 Drill For Practice Court

Play a best-of-five-set match. The only rule that matters is this – you automatically win the set when you break serve. This is an awesome drill I have done a lot over the years. Taking care of your own service games takes on heightened importance, and you have a real urgency to break serve and win the set right there. Rarely do I see sets make it to 3-3. Someone is going to break. On the very rare occasion that the set reaches six games all, play a regular tie-break to finish the set. And then grab a drink of water and feel good about holding serve six straight times!

#6 Have a 3-set Goal

In my freshman year of tennis in 1986-87, playing at Oral Roberts University, I went 21-7, playing mainly at numbers five and six. I had a goal at the start of the season that I was going to be physically and mentally tougher than my opponent if the match went three sets. I had a goal of never losing a three-set match for the season, which gave me a lot of confidence to fall back on when I dropped the opening set, knowing I just needed to win Set 2 for my goal to activate. How did I do? I went 10-0 in 3-set matches for the year. Goal accomplished.

#7 Go To Your Strings

When you see a player positioning their racquet in front of them and their eyes focused on the strings, think of it like they are updating their match strategy with a pen on a notebook. Going to your strings between points is a position of focus for the eyes. When you win a point early in the match, go to your strings and write it down. It’s so easy to play a great point – a repeatable, winning pattern of play – and forget it for later in the set when you really need it. Win a point. Write it down. Repeat the pattern. Win the first set, and put the percentages of winning the match in your favor.

All the best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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