Monday, 08 September 2025 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, US Open

Sinner’s Wide 1st Serves Vanished In The US Open Final vs. Alcaraz

G’day,

Several fascinating storylines percolated in importance as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner battled it out in the 2025 US Open men’s final yesterday. The Spaniard won 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, dominating in all facets of the game.

Was it all about the forehands? Or the serve? Or the lack of first serves? Or simply grit and energy?

One key to the final caught my eye in the very first game. Sinner’s opening service game of the match was 12 points long. Sinner missed five first serves and only won one of his five second serve points, to be immediately broken. It was a horror start for Sinner and a dream start for Alcaraz. The match was only a few minutes old, and Alcaraz had firmly seized the momentum.

Sinner’s lack of first serves plagued him in his opening service game and, indeed, for the rest of the final.

Here’s the Italian’s first serve percentage for all seven matches in New York.

Sinner: 1st Serve Percentage (Tournament average = 59%)

Rd 1 – 59% v Kopriva
Rd 2 – 51% v Popyrin
Rd 3 – 58% v Shapovalov
Rd 4 – 58% v Bublik
Qtr – 61% v Musetti
Semi – 53% v Auger-Aliassime
Final – 48% v Alcaraz
Average = 54%

The tournament average for first serves in was 59%. That’s down a notch or two over previous years. Sinner was marginally higher than that in only two of his matches. Sinner’s tournament average for first serves in through seven matches was a lowly 54%. That’s basically a failing grade.

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT SERVING

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 12: Team Djokovic

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

What was wrong with Sinner’s serve? Was it a specific spot he was having trouble with? Yes. It was out wide on both sides.

Here’s Sinner’s 1st serve location in the final and how many times he made it, and also won the point.

Sinner SHOULD be around 70% made to this natural serve location for a right-hander. He was nowhere close, only making 50% of those serves. This was an instant hole in his game in yesterday’s final.

Sinner was marginally better in the Ad court, making 59% of his first serves out wide, which is a favorite first serve location for him. He should be crushing this location.

Combined, Sinner only made 23/42 first serves wide on both sides, which adds up to a lowly 54.7%. That’s not going to get it done against a rampaging Spaniard on the other side of the net.

The real problem here is the “snowball” effect this has on the match. Here’s how that works…

Sinner’s Serve Problems vs Alcaraz

Problem 1: Only making 48% of first serves.
Problem 2: Sinner hit 58 2nd serves to only 35 for Alcaraz.
Problem 3: Sinner only won 48% of 2nd serves to Alcaraz’s 57%.

By the time the fourth set had come around, Sinner was not able to problem-solve his way out of this hole. In fact, it just got deeper. Sinner only made 36% of his first serves in the fourth set. He only made 9/18 first serves out wide on both sides. No chance of a comeback with those numbers.

SUMMARY

There was a lot more to this final than just Sinner’s poor showing with first serves out wide on both sides – and I look forward to analyzing many specific aspects of Alcaraz’s dominant victory.

But you can’t rock up to a Grand Slam final and only make 55% 1st serves out wide on both sides to your preferred targets and expect to get the job done. It pulls your game down and elevates Alcaraz’s at the exact same time.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.