Friday, 11 July 2025 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Court Position, Jannik Sinner, Jenson Brooksby, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Wimbledon

The Wimbledon Baseline Hides A Dark Secret

G’day from Wimbledon,

When you step onto any tennis court, you automatically walk to the baseline and start trading shots back and forth with the person on the other side of the net. The baseline is your happy place. It’s where you feel comfortable on the court, having more preparation time than at the net to get ready for your next shot.

You naturally think that the baseline is the best place for you to win points. It’s where you can forge a significant advantage over your opponent. Right? Wrong.

Here are the men’s win percentages for the last five years for the baseline (which you love) and the net (which you avoid).

Why are you so enamored with the only strategy in tennis that consistently delivers a losing average of points won? And equally, why do you shun a tactic that delivers one of the highest win percentages of them all?

The answer is knowledge. You lack real knowledge about the results of your actions.

The truth is, the baseline is a statistical nightmare. You need to understand this so you can make better strategic decisions in a match, such as whether to go to the net on a neutral ball or just hang at the baseline and continue the point.

It’s important to note how baseline and net points are calculated. When a point ends, and Djokovic is standing at the baseline, then he is credited with a baseline point (won or lost). If his opponent is at the baseline, they notch up a baseline point as well. But if they are at the net, then Novak has just played a baseline point while his opponent just played a net point.

The result is that baseline averages drop significantly because they face all the aggressive net points from their opponents.

Let’s take a look at the last five years and the players who have won more than 50% of their baseline points. The list is shorter than you think.

It’s incredible to think that only 13 men were able to win more than they lost from the back of the court to the semi-finals this year. That means 115 men – the vast majority of the draw – were not able to turn baseline play into a winning tactic.

In 2024, the leading baseline players (Fritz, De Minaur, Coboli, and Sinner) were only able to win 52% of their baseline points. That’s such a small advantage.

In 2023, only NINE men were above 50% of baseline points. That’s only 14% of the draw. The other 86% were either dead even (50-50) or below water with their baseline performance.

In 2022, 12 players reached 50% or more. It’s incredible to see that Rafael Nadal only won 51% of his points. Here’s his tournament

Rd 1 def. F. Cerundolo 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
Rd 2 def. R. Berankis 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
Rd 3 def L. Sonego 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
Rd 4 def. B. Van de Zandschulp 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(6)
Qtr def T. Fritz 3-6, 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(4)
Semi w/o lost to N. Kyrgios

Rafa played 19 sets, winning 15. It’s simply incredible that one of the greatest players of all time, from the back of the court,t can only win one more point out of every hundred to turn a 50-50 battle into a 51-49 battle. The real reason Rafa is at 51% is that he had to defend all of the net points from his opponents, and that roughed up his baseline win percentage.

It’s mind-bending that only eight men won more than 50% of their baseline points, and Novak could only push to 52%. Remember, Novak won the title in 2022, defeating Matteo Berrettini 6-7(4) 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 in the final.

And here’s the kicker…

Novak only dropped three sets for the tournament. Twenty-one sets won. Three sets lost. Only 52% of baseline points won. However, Novak did win 75% (135/181) of his net points.

SUMMARY

The baseline is a very tough place to forge an advantage in a match. It’s far easier at the net. I am not saying that you need to abandon baseline play. Points start with both players back and regularly don’t progress much past that.

But what I am saying is that you should not think the tactic that delivers a 46% win percentage is superior in any way to the tactic that delivers a 65% advantage.

The harsh reality is that you are lucky to win one out of every two points from the back of the court.

When you turn your attention to the net, you are probably going to win two out of three.

Let the math drive your decisions.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.