Saturday, 01 July 2017 / Published in ATP Tour

40% = Wimbledon Qualifier Success

Qualifiers are the real deal.

They win more than you think they do.

G’day from Wimbledon!

There are 16 qualifiers in the main draw of The Championships. They earned that right winning three rounds in the qualifying tournament at Roehampton this week.

Do they really have a chance to win a round or two? Oh, yes they do!

For the past 11 years (since 2006), qualifiers in the men’s draw have won a very impressive 40% of their first round matches at the Championships. That’s not far off the 50-50 battle that the rest of the players automatically have.

In 2012, they actually won 10 of 16 first round matches = 63%. A massive advantage for qualifiers is that they are already “match tough” for the opening round. They have just played three high pressure matches, and won them all. They also have a really good feel for the grass – something that a lot of main draw players may not yet have had time to acquire.

In 2013, qualifiers won nine matches, and in 2007, they broke even, winning eight of 16 matches. In no year since 2006 has at least one qualifier failed to win an opening round match. That also goes for the second round as well – at least one qualifier has made it through to the third round every year since 2006. The furtherest a qualifier reached in that period was the quarter finals.

The furthest a qualifier has ever reached at Wimbledon is the semi-finals. In 2000, Vladimir Voltchkov reached the semi-finals, losing 7-6, 6-2, 6-4 to Pete Sampras. Pistol Pete won a ridiculous 41 of 44 1st serve points in that match, crushing 13 aces, including four on his second serve.

In 1977, John McEnroe also made the semi-finals as a qualifier, losing to Jimmy Connors 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Lucky Losers

The furthest round a lucky loser has reached at Wimbledon is the 4th round, which happened four times. Most recently it was Dick Norman, who lost to Boris Becker 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. Boris lost just four points on his first serve (won 55/59) for the match, hitting 17 aces along the way.

Interestingly, there were five lucky losers in 2011, with three winning their opening round matches. Since 2006, the most lucky losers to make the main draw was seven, in 2010.

Here are all the qualifier and lucky loser matches in round 1 in the men’s draw at Wimbledon this year

Q Illya Marchenko v Jiri Vesely
Q Simone Bolelli v Yen-Hsun Lu
Q Ruben Bemelmens v WC Tommy Haas
Q Andrew Whittington v Thiago Monteiro
Q Lukas Rosol v Henri Laaksonen
Q Sergiy Stakhovsky v Julien Benneteau
Q Peter Gojowczyk v Marius Copil
Q Andrey Rublev v Q Stefano Travaglia (two qualifiers play each other)
Q Christian Garin v #17 Jack Sock
Q Sebastian Ofner v Thomaz Bellucci
Q Taylor Fritz v John Isner
Q Stefano Tsitsipas v Dusan Lajovic
Q Nicolas Jarry Gilles Simon
Q Daniel Brands v Gael Monfils
Q Alexander Ward v Kyle Edmund

Lucky Loser

LL Alexander Bublik v #1 Andy Murray

Here’s my prediction: I think there will be NINE qualifiers/lucky losers advance to Rd. 2 this year. Let’s see how that goes! I will come back here to the blog and update it after Rd 1.

Special thanks to Georgie Sanders from IBM here at Wimbledon for doing the wonderful research for this analysis 🙂

Cheers from SW19,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.