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Tuesday, 30 June 2026 / Published in Jannik Sinner, Miomir Kecmanovic, Wimbledon

2026 Wimbledon – One Bad Service Game

G’day from Wimbledon!

You know it’s coming. Your opponent knows it’s coming. It’s just a matter of when.

One of the most common, yet under-the-radar, ways players lose matches at all levels of our sport is simply dropping one bad service game.

One bad service game can undo a dozen good ones. It may be because you are nervous, or lost focus, or were hijacked by the moment. It could certainly mean you are reaching for the finish line instead of being locked in on your winning strategy.

Miomir Kecmanovic was going toe-to-toe with Jannik Sinner in their opening round match at Wimbledon on Monday and was right in the mix, serving at 2-3 in the 5th set. He was playing well. An upset was definitely possible. And then it arrived in all its glory. One bad service game cost him victory.

Let’s go through it point by point.

KECMANOVIC SERVING 2-3 FIFTH SET

Love All – Kecmanovic made a first serve, but played a passive baseline point hoping Sinner would miss. He didn’t, and Kecmanovic ended up committing a forehand error wide in the Deuce court. He didn’t drop the hammer with two run-around forehands earlier in the point, and Sinner made him pay for it.

Losing the first point of the game helps set the (bad) weather for the rest of the game. That certainly happened here.

Love-15 – Kecmanovic got lucky with a Serve +1 backhand net cord that Sinner couldn’t get back over the net.

15-All – Kecmanovic again started with a neutral serve +1 backhand, and Sinner jumped all over the easy ball and dispatched it down the line for a backhand winner. The ball sat there and deserved the punishment.

15-30 – Kecmanovic was feeling the heat. He hit his first serve in the net and then followed up with a second serve in the net. These are the calling cards of a bad service game.

15-40 – Down 15-40, Kecmanovic made a first serve but again started the point with a Serve +1 backhand. Sinner again went down the line with his run-around forehand and extracted a forehand error in the net. The bad service game was complete.

Sinner now led 4-2 and held his next two service games to 15. Once he broke for the 4-2 lead, the match officially ended. Sinner didn’t play a great game to break, but he certainly put the ball where he wanted (to Kecmanovic’s forehand) to let Kecmanovic commit the errors he needed.

SUMMARY

The bad service game for Kecmanovic started with a 0-15 deficit. Here’s exactly what that meant.

2026 Wimbledon Men: Winning The First Point Serving

Overall Holding Serve = 79%
Holding from 0-15 = 64%
Holding from 15-0 = 87%

Kecmanovic really needed to win the opening point to surge ahead 15-0 and enjoy an 87% chance of holding serve against the world No. 1 in the deciding fifth set. He didn’t, and things unraveled from there.

Here’s Kecmanovic’s win percentages from each point score he played.

Holding from 0-0 = 79%
Holding from 0-15 = 64%
Holding from 15-15 = 75%
Holding from 15-30 = 58%
Holding from 15-40 = 27%

By the time he got to 15-40, he had about a one-in-four chance of holding serve and staying in the match. What hurt him the most? Probably serving two balls in the net to double fault. It was the worst possible way to lose a point.

If Kecmanovic didn’t drop that bad service game at 2-3 in the 5th set, he may very well be playing #48 Nuno Borges in the second round on Wednesday to then play the winner of #81 Jenson Brooksby and #34 Ignacio Buse for a spot in the round of 16, where the highest seed still alive is #23 Rafael Jodar.

There is a massive opportunity written all over this draw. Kecmanovic is currently ranked #58 in the world. Making the fourth round is worth 240 points and would have elevated Kecmanovic 20 spots up to around #38, and put almost USD $400,000 in his pocket.

One bad service game can be more costly than you could ever imagine.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.