G’day From Paris,
19-year-old Joao Fonseca takes on 20-year-old Jakub Mensik in the Roland Garros quarter-finals tomorrow.
As we look to compare stats, it’s important to note that both Fonseca and Mensik have played 17 sets to the last eight. So the numbers should be fairly even, right? Not always…
Let’s take a look at 10 stats that definitely favor one player over the other.
- ACES
- Mensik = 36
- Fonseca = 21
The most aces Fonseca has hit in a match was 11 against Novak Djokovic. Notably, he finished the match with three aces in a row. At 30-40, he hit a 220 km/h ace out wide. At Deuce, he crused 215 km/h down the T, and on match point, he delivered a 213 km/h ace again down the T to secure the biggest victory of his career.
Mensik has more aces, but Fonseca also knows how to deliver them in the clutch. Fonseca has hit the fastest first serve between them (229 km/h to 222 km/h), but Mesnik’s average first serve speed is considerably higher at 196 km/h to 182 km/h for Fonseca.
2. DOUBLE FAULTS
This is a big deal.
- Mensik = 29
- Fonseca = 3
Fonseca hardly ever doubles, but Mensik leads the entire tournament with doubles faults with 29. This is something that could definitely come into play on big points, where the pressure builds, and a double fault becomes a real possibility. The quick fix is always to keep the tossing arm up higher and longer, and make sure you hit up through the point of contact with good leg drive. Oh, and keep your head up.
3. 1ST SERVES IN
- Mensik = 55%
- Fonseca = 71%
This alone could decide this match. Fonseca makes A LOT more first serves, which in turn protects his second serve. Mensik is well below the tournament average of first serves in at 62%, meaning his second serve is going to get a lot of exposure and opportunities to double-fault.
4. 2ND SERVE POINTS WON
- Mensik = 45%
- Fonseca = 58%
All of those double faults have really knocked down Mensik’s win percentage on second serves. This is always one of the most important match stats to understand winning and losing, and Fonseca comes into this match with a huge advantage here.
5. 1ST SERVE % ON BREAK POINTS
- Mensik = 52%
- Fonseca = 62%
Getting your first serve in on break point is paramount to not getting broken. Once again, the serve data clearly shows Fonseca has been superior in this area in his run to the quarter-finals.
6. 2ND SERVE POINTS WON ON BREAK POINT
- Mensik = 50%
- Fonseca = 73%
It’s stunning how Fonseca holds the cards on almost all serve stats vs. Mensik. Mensik can only break even with 2nd serve points won on break point, while Fonseca is almost winning three out of every four. Break points will be the “King Makers” in this match.
7. 2ND SERVE PONTS WON WHEN RETURN IN PLAY
- Mensik = 43%
- Fonseca = 52%
This is a new one. You hit a second serve, and the return comes back into play. Who wins the point now? For Mensik, it was his opponents who won considerably more return points, but Fonseca has been able to craft a slight advantage in this area.
8. RETURN WINNERS
- Mensik = 21
- Fonseca = 3
Mensik has clubbed 21 return winners to the quarter-finals, while Fonseca is at just three. This is definitely something to look for in this match, as Mensik looks to apply pressure to Fonseca’s second serve.
9. FOREHAND WINNERS
- Mensik = 59
- Fonseca = 90
Fonseca can be wild with his forehand at times, but he has the firepower to pull the trigger from all over the court and turn a natural or even defensive situation into a forehand winner. It will potentially be the most important shot for Fonseca once again.
10. BASELINE POINTS WON
- Mensik = 44%
- Fonseca = 50%
This is a huge hole in Mensik’s game, having only won 44% of his baseline points. This is a very low number, which typically means you are not in the second week of the tournament. Fonseca can win this match, winning his typical 50% of baseline points. Mensik won’t win the match, winning only 44%. Something has got to give.
Let’s hope for an outstanding match. I predict Fonseca in four sets.
Best,
Craig
