Sunday, 13 July 2025 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Wimbledon

2025 Wimbledon Men’s Final. Five Keys To The Final

G’day From Wimbledon

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner. This feels like a Djokovic/Federer/Nadal heavyweight fight all over again. Here are five things to consider when watching the final.

1) HEAD-TO-HEAD

Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 8-4 and has won five straight in 2024 and 2025. Sinner has not beaten Alcaraz since September 2023.

This is the biggest stat of all. ????

At Roland Garros last month, Alcaraz recovered from two sets down to take the title over Sinner, saving three championship points along the way. Sinner looked broken after that match. He went to Halle and lost second round to Alexander Bublik 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Is he mentally recovered now? We will find out this afternoon.

2) SERVE & VOLLEY

The leading five players that have served & volleyed the most at The Championships this year are:

147 Jordan Thompson
77 Carlos Alcaraz
69 Jan Lennard Struff
67 Shintaro Mochizuki
64 Novak Djokovic

While Alcaraz has been serving and volleying up a storm, Sinner has only thrown in two random attempts.

Sinner won 1/2 (50%)
Alcaraz won 61/77 (79%)

Naturally, attacking the front of the court should favor the Spaniard. In big moments, Alcaraz can throw down heat on his first serve and immediately follow it to the net to finish the point. Sinner won’t really know if Alcaraz is going to come forward or not right after the serve, which creates uncertainty.

Alcaraz won 18/20 serving and volleying to beat Cameron Norrie in the quarter finals and won 16/20 against Taylor Fritz in the semi-finals. Salty.

Alcaraz has won 102 service games to the final, while only losing 11. Sinner has won 75 service games and lost only four. Expect Alcaraz to serve and volley 20+ times in the final – with many being at decisive moments.

3) GROUNDSTROKES

The first thing to take into account is that Sinner has played just 18 sets while Alcaraz has played 23.

FOREHANDS

Sinner: 64 winners/127 errors = -63
Alcaraz: 77 winners/232 errors = -155

BACKHANDS

Sinner: 41 winners/116 errors = -75
Alcaraz: 22 winners/165 errors = -143

The most striking statistic is that Alcaraz has over 100 more forehand errors than Sinner. If you are on the Sinner coaching team, this is something that warrants further investigation. Is Alcaraz’s forehand looser than expected? Is he playing too much offense on defense? The data is a red flag. Got to investigate…

4) BASELINE POINTS WON

This is always a key indicator for the strong baseline exchanges that will surely unfold with these two players.

Sinner = 58% won (290/504)
Alcaraz = 49% won (326/659)

This is concerning for Alcaraz.

The tournament average is 46% won, so at least he is north of that. But Sinner leads the tournament in this category, and second place is not even close. Sinner has won 58% and the second-placed player, Brandon Nakashima, has only won 53%. That’s a big deficit in this particular match stat.

5) RETURN PROWESS

Sinner is taking the honors here as well.

RETURNS IN

Sinner 71%
Alcaraz 68%
Tournament Average = 65%

RETURN POINTS WON VS 2ND SERVES

Sinner 62%
Alcaraz 51%
Tournament Average = 47%

RETURN GAMES WON

Sinner 32%
Alcaraz 27%
Tournament Average = 16%

Sinner looks the goods in all three of these key return indicators. This is the wheelhouse of his game so it comes as no surprise he is crushing it here.

SUMMARY

I think Alcaraz wins this match in four compelling sets. His dominant record over Sinner is a main reason.

Sinner has been “on song” for the entire tournament. Only one of the 18 sets he has played has gone to a tie-break. It’s been pretty smooth sailing for the Italian.

It feels like Alcaraz is building his game, getting better and better each round. The four-set victory over Taylor Fritz in the semi-final was particularly impressive.

Let’s hope for a great final! I have got Alcaraz in 4.

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.