G’day From Paris,
Borg vs. McEnroe. Sampras vs. Agassi. Edberg vs. Lendl. Djokovic vs. Federer. Nadal vs. Federer. Alcaraz vs. Sinner.
This is the next iteration of the heavyweights in our sport. The top two seeds will be crushing the ball on the crushed red earth at Roland Garros this afternoon.
Overall, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 7-4, but most importantly, he has won the last four in a row in 2024 and 2025. Also, keep in mind Sinner has won 18 straight sets to reach the final, while Alcaraz has played 21, being extended to four sets on three occasions.
Here are five things to look for in Paris this afternoon.
1: RALLY LENGTH PLAYED
As you may suspect, these two players are almost identical in rally length played to the final. Right around two out of every three points will be a maximum of just two shots hit for each player (four total).
I expect this to remain identical in the final. Some rallies will get longer as they both defend well against the other, but they also bring more firepower to the start of the point which will also reduce rally length. Make no mistake about it – the player who wins the battle of 0-4 shots will win the match (95%+ probability). You will remember the long, bruising rallies between these two, but they won’t be enough to move the needle one way or the other.
IMPROVE YOUR SERVE – HOLD MORE SERVICE GAMES
Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns
Webinar 11: Break Points & Tie-Breaks
Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley
Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations
2: RALLY LENGTH WON
Let’s start with the No. 1 seed.
Sinner dominates his matches in the 0-4 shot rally length. His advantage is 111 points won more than he has lost, which is vastly superior to his advantage in the other two rally lengths. In fact, it’s about tripe either one.
Alcaraz also creates his advantage in his first two touches of the ball in the 0-4 shot rally length. What’s interesting is that he still carries a very lopsided advantage in rallies of 5-8 shots – higher than Sinner. But when it gets to rallies of 9+ shots, he has won the same as his opponents (67-65).
3: FOREHANDS & BACKHANDS
What I do here is take total winners and subtract total errors (forced & unforced) to really see what’s going on at the baseline. Sinner’s forehand is clearly performing much better than his backhand. His forehand is hitting four times the winners over his backhand, but only has slightly more errors (26) than his backhand.
When you see numbers like this, you form a game plan of rallying more to the backhand where you are not going to get hurt, but you also know the opponent won’t miss as much. And then, on the right ball, you switch and attack the forehand.
There is a big difference between Sinner’s forehand performance (-33) and Alcaraz’s (-90). The forehand errors are flowing far more freely from the Spaniard than the Italian. This suggests that a primary part of the Sinner game plan is to pressure Alcaraz’s forehand as much as possible. The easiest way is to play the backhand first and then run him hard to his forehand wing. You can also hit several big shots to his forehand to break it down that way as well. Sinner can use direction, depth, height, and spin as well as power to extract those errors.
4: NET POINTS WON
- Sinner won 65% (67/103)
- Alcaraz won 72% (134/185)
Sinner is averaging coming in 5.7 times per set, while Alcaraz is averaging about double that at 11.4 times per set. This may not seem like a big deal, but it should be a psychological advantage for the Spaniard coming into the match. He is coming in a lot more and he is winning more as well.
There are going to be a plethora of bruising baseline rallies in this final, with both players smashing forehands and backhands from the back of the court. But if Alcaraz feels he can finish points better at net – because of his recent experience the past two weeks getting to the final, that will absolutely help his cause.
5: SERVICE GAMES WON/LOST
- Sinner = Won 80 / Lost 3
- Alcaraz = Won 86 / Lost 10
It has proven almost impossible to break Sinner at Roland Garros this year. He was broken twice in his opening match Arthur Rinderknech, and then won 63 straight service games before being broken just once against Novak Djokovic in the 10th game of the second set. There is a tremendous amount of confidence coming from this super impressive streak. Alcaraz was broken three times in the first two sets against Musetti before the Italian retired injured after losing eight straight games.
Advantage Sinner.
SUMMARY
Here are other areas I will be closely studying in the final.
- When Sinner needs a point in the Ad court, he likes to serve wide. Will Alcaraz be sitting in ambush waiting for it?
- Many rallies will start backhand-to-backhand. Whoever gets first access to use their run-around forehand will have a big advantage. Both have great backhands, but their forehands are what will win them the title.
- Alcaraz beat Sinner 7-6,(5), 6-1 in the Rome final a couple of weeks ago. Sinner could not convert two set points in the opening set of that match. Sinner also had won 26 straight matches to that final.
- Who will use drop shots more? I think Alcaraz will and it will help him a lot to hurt Sinner’s legs by constantly dragging him to the front of the court. Watch out for Alcaraz’s run-around forehand drop shot that goes cross court through the Ad court.
Who will win?
Alcaraz knows how to beat Sinner. Four in a row matters. But Sinner is in scintillating form and proved in the semi-final against Djokovic he is the king of the baseline. Djokovic was only able to win a lowly 42% of baseline points in that match.
The majority of the data points to a close Sinner victory. He is ticking all the right boxes and is in peak form. I think the Rome final also helped him “measure” Alcaraz a little more as well. Put a finger on the pulse of the Spaniard’s game to understand it better.
Let’s go with Sinner in five sets. Looking forward to a grueling, compelling final!
Cheers,
Craig