G’day,
Jannik Sinner didn’t drop a set as he notched back-to-back titles at the year-end ATP Finals in Turin on the weekend. That’s a remarkable feat against five other top 10 players in the world.
Here are Sinner’s tournament results
2025 ATP Finals – Jannik Sinner’s Five Matches
Let’s unpack seven things from Sinner’s tournament that relate to our own game.
1: SINNER ONLY WON 55% OF POINTS PLAYED
This is the same at all levels of our sport. When you enter “god-mode” and win five straight matches against quality opposition, you are still only winning 55% of your points. That means that it is quite okay to lose 45% of all points you play.
Too often, we live on an emotional roller coaster, happy when we win a point and sad when we lose. This is a clear reminder that you can be absolutely crushing it, as Sinner did in Torino last week, and you are still going to lose 45% of all points you play.
GET MENTALLY TOUGHER IN COMPETITION
Webinar 46: 8 Ways To Force An Error
Webinar 41: Opponent Awareness
Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play
2: SINNER DOMINATED AN ABUNDANCE OF SHORT POINTS
Here’s Sinner’s rally length for his five matches.
- 0-4 Shots = 69%
- 5-8 Shots = 20%
- 9+ Shots = 11%
What’s interesting is that rally length was very similar, regardless of whether Sinner started the point serving or returning.
Sinner Serving – Rally Length
- 0-4 Shots = 70%
- 5-8 Shots = 18%
- 9+ Shots = 12%
Sinner Returning – Rally Length
- 0-4 Shots = 68%
- 5-8 Shots = 21%
- 9+ Shots = 11%
Sinner – Rally Length Played & Won
What we typically remember from matches are the longer, more exciting rallies. And what we tend to mentally dismiss are the short rallies, which have somehow “failed” to mature into long rallies. It’s simply not true.
Sinner played almost seven points out of every ten in the 0-4 rally length. To be specific, Sinner hit a maximum of just two shots in the court in seven out of every 10 rallies.
And which rally length did he do the best in? Short rallies, where he won 57% of points played.
Overall, we have always valued consistency, shot telerance, repetition, and grinding. But a stats table like the one above shatters that myth altogether.
Consider this – Sinner’s average rally length for the tournament was just 3.9 shots.
Below identifies how Sinner performed in each rally length when he started the point serving.
Sinner Serving – Rally Length Played & Won
These numbers provide clear insight into which rally length he played most often and which he totally dominated. Sinner played exactly 70% of all points in the 0-4 rally length and won a staggering 79% of these points. Sinner was effectively winning the point before the opponent could get a foothold in the point.
Sinner also performed best in short rallies when he started the point returning.
Sinner Returning – Rally Length Played & Won
When Sinner was serving, he won 79% of points in 0-4 shots, meaning opponents won 21% off his serve. Now, when Sinner is returning, he wins an impressive 36% of points in 0-4 shots – far superior to his opponents.
Because of the vast volume of points in short rallies, dominating here with your serve, return, serve +1, and return +1 shots is what helps you reach the finish line first.
3: SINNER ONLY WON 50% OF 2ND SERVE POINTS
The key with second serves is not to bleed.
At the US Open from 2015 – 2022, the tournament average for 2nd serve points won was right at 50%. It’s not a strength, but it’s not a weakness either. Sinner won an incredibly high 84% behind his first serve, and was able to get to even on 2nd serves, winning 50%. Typically, Sinner wins 57% behind his second serve, so he didn’t do as well as normal in this specific area. But the good thing for him is that it wasn’t a losing percentage.
Sinner 2nd Serve Placement / Won (5 Matches)
Above, we have where Sinner directed his second serves. Yellow balls indicate Sinner won the point, and red balls indicate he lost.
Take a look out wide in the Deuce court. He won 7/8 second serves, but only directed 16% of his second serves here in the Deuce court. Mixing wide to the forehand return (for right-handed opponents) can work really well as a surprise, and also to attack the potentially large backswing of the forehand return.
4: BASELINE POINTS WON
The vast majority of points that developed into an actual rally were contested from the baseline for Sinner.
- 71% = Both players at the baseline
- 14% = Sinner at net
- 15% = Opponent at net
All of these numbers are good news for Sinner and suit his aggressive baseline strategy.
Sinner won 55% of all baseline points over five matches. You may think that number would be higher, but this is the reality of baseline dominance. Many times at Slams, I see the highest baseline win percentage top out around 55% – 57%. Remember, the baseline is a tough place to earn a living, and tipping a 50-50 battle into a 55-45 advantage is all you need from the back of the court.
5: SINNER 1ST SERVES
Sinner landed 218 first serves in the court. Here’s a breakdown of what happened next.
- 40 aces
- 65 return errors
- 47 returns to attack
- 53 times he started in a neutral rally
- 13 times he was on defense
Eliciting so many return errors from your opponent is precisely the role of the first serve. It’s the same with your game. Bang a few aces. Extract some return errors and feast on a healthy amount of returns where you can dominate with a Serve +1 forehand, or even come straight to the net with an approach shot.
6: SINNER BACKHAND LINE
Sinner hit one out of every four backhands down the line in Turin last week.
In the 2025 season, Sinner only hit 21% of his backhands down the line. He raised that to 25% at the ATP Finals, slightly above the tour average of 24%.
Backhands down the line are usually the last card you play in a baseline strategy I call the “2-1 Pattern.”
- Shot 1 = attack with depth, typically through the middle of slightly to the backhand wing.
- Shot 2 = attack wider in the Ad court. This is where Sinner hit 40% of his shots, trading backhand to backhand.
- Shot 3 = switch to down-the-line. Sinner first moved his opponent off the court. Now he has an open hole down the line to attack.
The 2-1 pattern can finish with a backhand down the line or run-around forehand inside-in. It’s an ideal way to construct the point at every level of our game.
7: SINNER SERVING BREAK POINT
Sinner faced 15 break points in five matches. He saved 14 of them.
- Saved 10/10 making first serves
- Saved 4/5 with 2nd serves
The diagram below shows just how accurate he was with his first serve facing a break point.
Sinner Serving Break Point – First Serves
His favorite spot was to go down the T in the Ad court. He hit that six times, collecting three aces. Look at how close those six serves are down the T in the Ad court. Imagine using a ball can as a target and putting two side-by-side down the T where Sinner won 6/6 first serve points.
Below is Sinner’s 2nd serve location on break point.
Sinner Serving Break Point – Second Serves
In the Deuce court, Sinner went both times at the body, winning one out of two.
In the Ad court, he went out wide all three times, with one of them being unreturned.
The message here is that Sinner kept it simple. Serving at the body is normal in the Deuce court. Serving a kick wide in the Ad court is also the highest percentage serve. The other benefit of the three serves out wide in the Ad court is that they will probably come back cross court, where Sinner can start the point with his ever-reliable backhand.
SUMMARY
Here’s a quick review of all seven aspects of Sinner’s game we covered.
- The best players in the world only win 55% of total points. Losing 45% of all points you play is a great day at the office.
- Tennis is dominated by short rallies, with 70% typically falling in the 0-4 rally length range. You probably need to spend more time working on your serve, return, Serve +1, and Return +1.
- Consider winning 50% of your 2nd serve points as a win. Don’t have your 2nd serve as a liability.
- Sinner is arguably the best player in the world right now from the baseline. He just played five matches, won them all, but only won 55% of his baseline points. The back of the court ends up far more even than you think.
- Your first serve needs to extract as many return errors as possible, as well as set up your Serve +1 forehand to attack.
- Sinner hit one out of every four (25%) backhands down the line. Find the right ball and attack your opponent’s running forehand.
- Making first serves and hitting your spots on break point helps separate good from great.