Sunday, 23 July 2023 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Serving, Wimbledon

2023 Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz First Serve Lesson

Alcaraz: Wimbledon Final 1st Serve Lesson

Carlos Alcaraz stunned Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final a week ago in a thrilling five-set final. Next Thursday’s webinar will focus on learning the patterns of play and momentum swings of the final and how you can directly improve your game by studying the best two players in the world on the world’s biggest stage.

Here’s a sneak peek at the kind of analysis you will find in the webinar.

The first thing to understand is that only two points separated Alcaraz and Djokovic at the finish line. Alcaraz won 168 points, and Djokovic 166. Everything seemed even until you drill down to specific battles and uncover where Alcaraz established domination in the match.

Let’s take a look at first serve performance by both players.

1st Serves Made (Tournament Average = 64%)

Alcaraz 63% (94/150)
Djokovic 64% (118/184)

Almost dead even. Djokovic hit more first serves, but this is definitely a wash.

1st Serves Won (Tournament Average = 74%)

Alcaraz 70% (66/94)
Djokovic 62% (73/118)

This is startling. Both players were under the tournament average for 1st serve points won in the final, with Djokovic a substantial 12 percentage points adrift (74% to 62%). This was a huge blow for Djokovic and a real key to the final outcome. Djokovic typically slays in this match metric, as you can tell by his run to the final.

LEARN HOW TO HOLD SERVE MORE OFTEN

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy

Webinar 12: Team Djokovic

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley

Webinar 23: Point Score Strategy

Djokovic 1st Serve Points Won To The Final

77% Rd 1 vs. P. Cachin
88% Rd 2 vs. J. Thompson
90% Rd 3 vs. S. Wawrinka
89% Rd 4 vs. H. Hurkacz
75% Qtr Final vs. A. Rublev
75% Semi-Final vs. J. Sinner

Alcaraz has established himself as the premier returner of 1st serves on the ATP Tour this season. Here are the current top five ranked players with points won returning 1st serves.

C. Alcaraz = 36.87%
F. Cerundolo = 34.51%
N. Djokovic = 34.47%
D. Medvedev = 34.22%
A. DeMinaur = 33.74%

When you break down first serve direction in the final between Alcaraz and Djokovic, something leaps off the stats sheet.

First serves at the body.

Alcaraz was highly successful with this tactic, while Djokovic elected to use it sparingly, and it failed to deliver. Here’s the breakdown.

1st Serve: Deuce Court Body

Alcaraz won 67% (16/24)
Djokovic won 45% (5/11)

Alcaraz used the body first serve a lot more in the Deuce court than Ad court (24-14). In the Deuce court, he won two out of three (67%), while Djokovic failed to win even half (45%) of his first serves. That’s a testament to Alcaraz’s returning skills, and Djokovic did not have a clear strategy to confuse Alcaraz with the guessing game of serve location.

Hitting first serves at the body has two main advantages.

You make the returner defend three target areas instead of just two. Most players crush first serves wide and center. Alcaraz may be the biggest proponent of first serves at the body on the pro tour. Making Djokovic defend three target areas instead of two was very clever.
You make more first serves at the body. The singles sideline and the center line are effectively taken out of play.

Let’s have a look at the Ad court.

1st Serve: Ad Court Body

Alcaraz won 79% (11/14)
Djokovic won 44% (8/18)

Djokovic served more ar the body in the Ad court (18-14) than Alcaraz but still failed to win more than 50% of those points – while Alcaraz was up around 80%.

Deuce Ct and Ad Ct Combined

Alcaraz won 71% (27/38)
Djokovic won 45% (13/29)

Djokovic had a horrible day with his first serves at the body. Alcaraz effectively shut that tactic down, as Djokovic could only win 45% from 29 body serves. Alcaraz won a substantial 71% from 38 serves at the body.

Mission accomplished.

Below are the serve directions and win percentages for the Deuce court and Ad court combined.

Alcaraz Deuce & Ad Court Combined / Win Percentage

Center = 68% (21/31)
Body = 71% (27/38)
Wide = 72% (18/25)

Alcaraz served more body serves (38) than either down the center (31) or out wide (25). He won a hefty 71% of them.

Djokovic Deuce & Ad Court Combined / Win Percentage

Center = 79% (37/53)
Body = 45% (13/29)
Wide = 64% (23/36)

Djokovic served much more down the center and won a very high 79% of the first serves he landed there. The body serve was his third option, and it only yielded a 45% win percentage.

SUMMARY

Players at all levels of the game – professional to amateur – benefit from hitting first serves at the body. It helps raise the first serve percentage and makes the returner respect three target areas instead of just out wide and down the center. Also, a serve at the body has a strong likelihood of being returned right back down the middle of the court, where it can then be attacked with a Serve +1 forehand.

Alcaraz has been leading the charge with first serves at the body for a while. I wrote a blog about this strategy HERE just over a year ago.

Next time you step on the court, aim at the body more with your first serve. Jam the returner up, especially if they want to step up in the court around the baseline to make contact with the return.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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2023 Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz First Serve Lesson

Alcaraz: Wimbledon Final 1st Serve Lesson