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Tuesday, 30 August 2016 / Published in ATP Tour

2016 US Open Analysis: The First 4 Shots

US Open Round 1 Metrics.

 Numbers are the language of winning.

G’day from New York!

When you walk around the practice courts in the morning here at Flushing Meadows, you hear a cacophony of shots flying all over the court. Forehands and backhands dominate, and it seems like the players hardly.ever.miss.

They keep rallying and rallying and rallying. When you watch the practice court, nobody ever misses. When you watch the match court, it’s the exact opposite. Errors occur way more than winners, and missing happens earlier in the point much more than later.

There is a new wave of analytics washing through our sport that lets us look at matches in a completely different way. It’s all about the length of a rally. When you watch a tennis match, you know there will be short rallies, mid-length rallies, and the more exciting kind – the longer rallies with all the drama. The long rallies mirror the practice court, where players seem to never miss.

Surely matches are full of long rallies – just like the practice court. Not so fast.

Rally length is divided into three categories

  • 0-4 Shots (first strike)
  • 5-8 Shots (patterns of play)
  • 9+ Shots (extended rallies)

The practice court is overflowing with the 9+ shot rally length. As it turns out, the match court is not.

The table below from Day 1 of the 2016 US Open illustrates just how important understanding rally length is.

2016 US Open Day 1 Men
0-4 Shot Rally Length Match Winners / Match Losers

#MatchMatch WinnerMatch Loser Difference
1Djokovic d Janowicz926923
2Isner d Tiafoe12510223
3Darcis d Thompson1221139
4Edmund d Gasquet533023
5Tsonga d Andreozzi744727
6Duckworth d Haase9699-3
7Pospisil d Kovalik563917
8Anderson d Nishioka705317
9Sock d Fritz126129-3
10Cilic d Dutra Silva684919
11Nadal d Istomin583919
12Delbonis d Baker11410311
13Monfils d Muller785919
14Raonic d Brown886028
-TOTALS1220991229

Here are 3 takeaways.

  1. 86% (12/14) of the match winners also won the battle of the first 4 shots. It’s an incredibly good indicator as to who will be victorious. Win the short exchanges. Win the match.
  2. The two match winners that lost the 0-4 battle only BARELY did – by three points. Not much to read into that.
  3. In 14 matches, there was a 229 point swing in the First 4 Shots for the match winners. That’s an average of 16 per match. When you are searching for just ONE point to gain an advantage, 16 is an absolute swag of points!

The First 4 Shots include

  1. Serve
  2. Return
  3. Serve + 1 groundstroke (or volley)
  4. Return + 1 groundstroke (or volley)

If you want to win more matches, this is where you need to spend more time on the practice court. Pure and simple!

For a deeper dive into this amazing new data, the new Brain Game Tennis product titled The First 4 Shots has everything you need. Below is a summary of the product.

Best,

Craig

The First 4 Shots: Overview

You think it is the start of the point. It’s actually the end!

The First 4 Shots clearly shows that we spend way too much time practicing what hardly happens in a match. Points in tennis are actually “front-end loaded” – but the focus of the practice court is definitely “back-end loaded.”

The practice court is clearly broken.

By far the majority of the action – and the winning – takes place in the first four shots. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring. It’s baseline overkill.

We spend way too much time grinding. Way too much time banging balls up and down the middle of the court that have no real benefit to actually winning tennis matches. If winning matters to you, The First 4 Shots will completely change how you organize your practice court and go about your business of winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here are the percentage breakdown of total points from the 2015 Australian Open (where I initially discovered this information).

  • 0-4 Shots = 70%
  • 5-8 Shots = 20%
  • 9+ Shots = 10%

At every single level of our sport – including U12 – The 0-4 rally length always contains more than 50% of total points and always has the most amount of points played.

The First 4 Shots is specifically the:

  • Serve
  • Return
  • Serve +1 groundstroke
  • Return +1 groundstroke

Those are the shots that are normally practiced the least but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

Also contained in the First 4 Shots of a point are the average rally length and the mode – the most common rally length in tennis. Rich data in this product is provided in the following six levels –  Under 12’s, 14’s, 16’s, 18’s, College & Pro.

Welcome to MATCH-BASED COACHING 🎯😀

Welcome to knowing exactly what happens in a match, and then cutting that up to specific segments of your practice court.

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THE FIRST 4 SHOTS

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

Short Ball Hunter

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

Num3ers

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Dou8les Num3ers

Doubles Numbers

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

between the points

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

25 golden rules of singles strategy

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

25 golden rules of doubles

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Getting Tight tennis strategy course

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