Thursday, 19 March 2020 / Published in Strategy Courses, Strategy Products

Your best strategy serving at 30-30

30-30 is a crossroads between pleasure and pain.

Win the point and the percentages are overwhelmingly in your favor to hold serve. Lose the point, and the odds now say you are more likely to get broken.

So… how much risk should you take on board when serving at 30-30? Is it a good time to go for an ace and to play big, or is it better to play the percentages and make a first serve and look for a Serve +1 forehand? I recently wrote an ATP analysis on this topic with a focus on the pro tour, but I want to broaden that analysis here for junior and adult recreational players.

When you find yourself serving at 30-30, there are a number of elements that come into play.

Do you have a specific serve direction you know you can make?
Does the opponent have a significantly weaker return side?
Is it a good time for a surprise serve location?
Is your opponent stepping in and attacking your serve?
Where should you serve to bring the ball back where you want it?
All factors to consider…

In the 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy, I talk about the “8 Serve Factors” which help you make better decisions when serving.

When you arrive at 30-30, think of the outcome of the point like a fork in the road, where one pathway gives you an excellent chance of holding serve, while the other road is basically a coin flip to decide if you are going to hold serve. The following metrics are a Top 10 average from the 2019 season.

Top 10 Players in 2019

Holding from 30-30 = 80%
Holding from 40-30 = 93%
Holding from 30-40 = 49%

The gap difference between holding from 40-30 (93%) and 30-40 (49%) = 44 percentage points = A MASSIVE DIFFERENCE!

At 30-30, you may feel comfortable with an 80% chance of holding. That’s not the metric that matters the most. I want your focus to be on the “gap” between the two possible outcomes, which is 44 percentage points. 30-30 represents a point score that has a huge swing in fortunes if you either win the point or lose the point.

So here’s your goal with your first two shots…

Make your first serve.
Hit a Serve +1 forehand, and typically direct it to deep down the middle to the opponent’s backhand.

Pro players can serve much more at the corners at 30-30 because they have the proficiency to do so. I want you to serve more at the body at 30-30, which will improve the percentages that you will make the serve. Going jam forehand or jam backhand both work, so you will need to figure out which direction makes the opponent more uncomfortable.

If the return is made, your opponent will probably be aiming towards the middle of the court to your backhand side. I want you to run around this backhand and upgrade to a forehand and then go deep to your opponent’s backhand to push them back where they can’t hurt you. Win the court position battle first, and then you can start to focus on forcing an error or hitting a winner.

Roger Federer was the Top 10 leader in holding serve from all three point scores last season. These numbers are pretty salty…

Roger Federer 2019 Season

Holding from 30-30 = 86%
Holding from 40-30 = 97%
Holding from 30-40 = 59%

Top 10 in 2019: Holding Serve % From 30-30

Summary

Starting the point at 30-30 with a first serve and a forehand is overwhelmingly better than starting it with a second serve and a backhand. This is absolutely a point score where playing percentage tennis is the smartest thing to do.

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Your best strategy serving at 30-30

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30-30 is a crossroads between pleasure and pain.

Top 10 Players in 2019

Top 10 in 2019: Holding Serve % From 30-30