Friday, 12 July 2024 / Published in Novak Djokovic, Serving, Wimbledon

Wimbledon 2024 Men’s Semis Preview. The One Thing To Look For.

G’day From Wimbledon. 🍓

It’s men’s semi-finals day at The Championships. Here’s what’s on tap today.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

I have gone through all the analytics (hundreds of data points) that IBM produces here at The Championships and also some new/different data from TennisViz, which does a lot of analysis for players and coaches.

Think of these semi-finals in this manner.

When any of the four players put their first serve in play, they have a really strong chance of winning the point. Here’s their 1st serve win percentage to the semis.

1st Serve Win Percentage (Tournament Average = 74%)

Djokovic = 83% (208/250)
Medvedev = 76% (2721/356)
Musetti = 74% (322/437)
Alcaraz = 72% (273/379)

As you can see, these four are going to average winning around three out of every four points that start with a first serve.

But what happens when the first serve is missed? Here is the second serve data.

2nd Serve Win Percentage (Tournament Average = 52%)

Djokovic = 63% (78124)
Musetti = 62% (128/207)
Alcaraz = 56% (113/201)
Medvedev = 56% 97/174)

Djokovic drops down all the way from 83% points won behind his first serve to 63% behind his second serve.

When points start with second serves in the semi finals today, the battle really begins. This is when the returner has the best chance of winning the point.

So, let’s go another layer deeper and look at the second serve locations of each player in the tournament so far.

2024 WIMBLEDON: DJOKOVIC 2ND SERVE LOCATION

OK, so let me explain the data above.

The BROWN boxes at the bottom are the tournament average for Wimbledon 2024.
The YELLOW boxes are the player AVERAGE for all tournaments.
The GREEN boxes are what the player has done at Wimbledon this year.

So let’s look at down the T serves in the Ad court for the pic above.

BROWN (27%) = tournament average is only 27% of second serves in the Ad Court go here. It’s the least popular location for an average of all players in the tournament.
YELLOW (48%) = You can see Novak loves to go down the T with second serves in the Ad court. It’s higher than the 31% at the body and 21% out wide. This is a key strategy for him. I will explain why in a minute…
GREEN (60%) = Djokovic is serving a whopping 60% of second serves down the T in the Ad court – more than double the tournament average.

Here are the four reasons Djokovic is doubling down on this location.

The strongest return in tennis is a backhand return from the Ad court. Opponents are expecting that serve location It’s what normally happens. Djokovic is not normal. He is using that expectation against his opponents.
He hits the T 2nd serve in the Ad court a little harder than most players. Novak averages 97 mph on second serves. His average for the tournament is 103 mph this year. He is serving harder down the T to extract more return errors.
The tournament average for unreturned 2nd serves is 21%. Djokovic is running at 25% coming into the semi-final. That’s all you need to know.
It comes back as a Serve +1 forehand much more. Even though Djokovic has arguably the world’s best backhand, his forehand is still considerably better.

Let’s take a look at the other three players today to see where they target 2nd serves.

IMPROVE YOUR SERVE STRATEGY

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 11: Break Points & Tie Breaks

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley

Webinar 46: 8 Ways To Force An Error

2024 WIMBLEDON: MUSETTI 2ND SERVE LOCATION

Musetti is going down the T on both sides of the court to the semi finals. He has also figured out the advantages of serving down the T to the forehand in the Ad court.

2024 WIMBLEDON:ALCARAZ 2ND SERVE LOCATION

It is fascinating to see that Alcaraz is sticking with the traditional 2nd serve locations, going kick to the backhand.

2024 WIMBLEDON:MEDVEDEV 2ND SERVE LOCATION

Whoh!!!

Look at Medvedev serving wide in the Deuce court, and also mainly down the T in the Ad court. This is a pre-meditated strategy that is designed to maximize surprise and get return errors, and also maximize Serve +1 forehands.

SUMMARY

There are many different strategies that will play out in today’s semi-finals. This one key element of second serve direction will be great to follow. If the opponent starts to figure out where the second serve is going, then they will hit a stronger return and have a higher percentage chance of winning the point. That could be enough to win the match right there.

Typically, match losers do not have a winning record of 50% or more on second serves. Whoever can win this specific battle will reach the Wimbledon final.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Wimbledon 2024 Men’s Semis Preview. The One Thing To Look For.

G’day From Wimbledon. 🍓