Saturday, 29 January 2022 / Published in Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Nadal

The Numbers: Nadal v Medvedev

Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev in the 2022 Australian Open Final.

Six matches down. One to go. Who do you think is going to win the Aussie Open final?

It’s time to look back at the six matches both players have played to figure out where the strengths are and where the opponent will likely look to attack. Let’s get down to it!

RALLY LENGTH

Medvedev is playing slightly shorter rallies to the final, with 70% in the 0-4 rally length. Nadal is actually not that far behind at 66%. I think the final will drop for both players and end up in the 62% to 65% range of short rallies. That should slightly favor Rafa.

Rafa is comparatively doing a lot better than Daniil when the rally lengths reaches a fifth shot or longer. In particular, Rafa is +48 in rallies of 5-8 shots, while Danill is only +17. Overall, Rafa has won 77 more points than he has lost in rallies of five shots or longer, while Daniil is at 34.

FOREHANDS

Nadal: 91 winners / 173 errors = -82
Medvedev: 62 winners / 194 errors = -132

Nadal really has the edge with forehands to the final. The Spaniard has struck 31 more winners and committed 21 fewer errors. Expect Nadal to constantly look for forehands and to definitely go after the Medvedev forehand out wide in the Deuce Court.

BACKHANDS

Nadal: 34 winners / 124 errors = -90
Medvedev: 65 winners / 170 errors = -105

Medvedev is doing just fine with backhand winners but has been bleeding errors off the backhand wing a little more than are used to seeing. Overall Rafa has the edge here as he has done a better job of reducing errors.

TOTAL WINNERS

Nadal = 214
Medvedev = 263

TOTAL ERRORS

Nadal = 365
Medvedev = 409

SERVING

ACES

94 Medvedev
42 Nadal

DOUBLE FAULTS

32 Nadal
33 Medvedev

UNRETURNED 1ST SERVES (Tournament Average = 37%)

47% Medvedev
39% Nadal

UNRETURNED 2ND SERVES (Tournament Average = 18%)

24% Medvedev
22% Nadal

1ST SERVES IN (Tournament Average = 63%)

66% Medvedev
64% Nadal

1ST SERVE POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 72%)

81% Medvedev
80% Nadal

2ND SERVE POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 51%)

58% Nadal
57% Medvedev

BREAK POINTS SAVED (Tournament Average = 62%)

79% Medvedev
76% Nadal

SERVICE GAMES WON (Tournament Average = 80%)

95% Nadal
94% Medvedev

RETURNING

RETURNS IN (Tournament Average = 70%)

71% Medvedev
69% Nadal

RETURN WINNERS

17 Nadal
10 Medvedev

RETURN POINTS WON VS 1ST SERVE (Tournament Average = 28%)

32% Nadal
29% Medvedev

RETURN POINTS WON VS 2ND SERVE (Tournament Average = 49%)

52% Nadal
49% Medvedev

BREAK POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 38%)

39% Medvedev
36% Nadal

RETURN GAMES WON (Tournament Average = 20%)

27% Nadal
19% Medvedev

STRATEGY

NET POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 67%)

79% Nadal (96/122)
65% Medvedev (106/162)

SERVE & VOLLEY POINTS PLAYED (Tournament Average = 4%)

3% Nadal (14/559)
0% Medvedev (2/689)

SERVE & VOLLEY POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 68%)

100% Medvedev (2/2)
85% Nadal (12/14)

BASELINE POINTS WON (Tournament Average = 47%)

56% Nadal (362/651)
51% Medvedev (383/746)

TOTAL WINNERS (Tournament Average = 17%)

18% Medvedev
18% Nadal

TOTAL UNFORCED ERRORS (Tournament Average = 17%)

11% Medvedev
13% Nadal

The analytics are so close right across the board. Let’s hope for an enthralling final!

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

SIGN IN YOUR ACCOUNT TO HAVE ACCESS TO DIFFERENT FEATURES

FORGOT YOUR DETAILS?

The Numbers: Nadal v Medvedev

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://www.braingametennis.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/sd.png" />

Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev in the 2022 Australian Open Final.

RALLY LENGTH

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://www.braingametennis.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Nadal-Rally-Length.png" />

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://www.braingametennis.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Med-Rally-Length.png" />

SERVING

RETURNING

STRATEGY