Jannik Sinner defeated Taylor Fritz 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 in Sunday’s US Open men’s singles final.
Sinner was the better player. He won 96 points to 79, 60 baseline points to 32, and only committed 26 forehand errors to Fritz’s 39. I was in the stadium paying particular attention to the shape of the ball, court position, and who was leaning on who. For most of the match, it felt like Sinner was in control, but every now and then it felt like Fritz wasn’t that far away from getting back to even, such as when he went up a break 5-3 in the third set.
Overall, Sinner seemed to have the edge in every department – especially scoreboard pressure.
I have been analyzing a new match statistic for a while now that needs to be elevated into one of the “core” statistics in our sport.
It’s all about the first point of your service game. It matters much more than we ever thought. It’s the focus of this Thursday’s webinar, which is Webinar 54: 1st Point Of The Game.
Let’s take a look at this hidden force in the men’s final.
GET MENTALLY TOUGHER IN COMPETITION
Webinar 46: 8 Ways To Force An Error
Webinar 41: Opponent Awareness
Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play
FIRST POINT OF THE GAME WON WHEN SERVING
- Sinner = 80% (12/15)
- Fritz = 50% (8/16)
We don’t need to talk about aces, double faults, forehand winners, or backhand errors.
When you start down 0-15 in HALF of your service games, the amount of scoreboard pressure you feel is like an anvil on your chest. It weighs heavily on the rest of that service game. Sinner was sailing from the front by going 15-0 12/15 times, while Fritz was already in a hole in half his service games (8/16).
In Webinar 54: First Point Of The Game, we are going to go watch the first point of the game in all of these service games (and other matches) to see exactly what Sinner did well, and what Fritz did not.
HOLDING SERVE FROM 15-0
- Sinner = 92% (11/12)
- Fritz = 100% (8/8)
When the scoreboard pressure was not activated at the start of the game, both players did extremely well holding serve from 15-0. Combined, they won 19/20 service games.
It’s amazing the effect of just one point – the first point has in a match. It sets the weather for the rest of the game. It allows you to go for your shots and play freely. Holding serve seems so much easier with just one point in your favor.
HOLDING SERVE FROM 0-15
- Sinner = 66% (2/3)
- Fritz = 25% (2/8)
This is the nugget we have been searching for. Fritz lost serve six times in the final, and every time he lost serve, he started at 0-15 in his service game. He had almost triple the exposure to 0-15 than Sinner did, who fell behind 0-15 only three times.
Playing Jannik Sinner in a Grand Slam final is challenging enough. Dealing with his accurate serves and powerful groundstrokes is daunting. What tips it over the edge is playing too many of your service games from 0-15, and most return games with Sinner leading 15-0.
We have never valued this point-score statistic in our sport. As you can see, it makes a considerable difference.
SUMMARY
You want to do everything possible to move ahead 15-0 in your own service games. It’s a very big deal. It’s just one point, but the momentum that it creates is formidable.
What are the best patterns of play when serving at Love All? It’s all in Thursday’s Webinar 54: First Point Of The Game.
I have the data for all men’s and women’s matches at this year’s US Open, so we can cover global statistics in our game.
Lastly, think about Sinner and Fritz flipping roles for a minute. Could Fritz have defeated Sinner if he had only started his service games from 0-15 three times instead of eight?
There is a good chance he would have been holding the silverware at the end of the match.