Wednesday, 31 May 2023 / Published in 0-4 Shots, Novak Djokovic, Return Of Serve, Roland Garros, Serve And Volley, The First 4 Shots

Taking Novak Djokovic’s Pulse In Paris

Novak Djokovic is building his game on the fly to again be crowned the King of Paris.

Djokovic had an average clay court campaign by his own lofty standards coming into Roland Garros, going 5-3 in Monte Carlo, Banja Luka, and Rome. The three losses were to Lorenzo Musetti, Dusan Lajovic, and Holger Rune. Not an ideal preparation for a Grand Slam, which is why he is looking to play himself into form here as the tournament unfolds over the next fortnight.

He won his first-round Roland Garros match against Aleksandar Kovacevic, and plays Marton Fucsovics tonight. If he gets through that one, he will play the winner of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Luca Van Assche. That’s a nice Round 3 test.

The first thing to do is look back at his eight matches leading into Roland Garros and understand what worked and what didn’t. What was he doing well, and what needs improving? Was his form good, or was he struggling?

Lets’s take his pulse in four areas (Two positive & two negative) to see exactly how he is traveling arriving into Roland Garros.

1: POSITIVE = Dominating 0-4 Shot Rally Length

0-4 Shot Rallies

Djokovic Won = 377
Opponents Won = 325
Difference = +52

This is the most important stat in tennis, simply because it represents the biggest grouping of points. To be +52 in the eight matches is a good thing. As you would expect, he had a losing record (-13) in this specific area in the three matches he lost (143 won / 156 lost). Even though it’s clay, even though you think grinding is a good thing, Novak needs to shine in the 0-4 rally length more than any other area of his game if he is to win Roland Garros again.

2: NEGATIVE = Losing 9+ Rallies

Djokovic Won = 126
Opponents Won = 134
Difference = -8

This is a worrisome aspect of Novak’s clay court swing leading into Roland Garros. He is not dominating opponents in longer rallies. In fact, he is losing this battle. In the three matches he lost, he was -16 (48 won / 64 lost). Grinding opponents into the red brick dust is a hallmark of Novak’s game. Fucsovics will test him here tonight. Novak needs to find his rhythm, patience, and mojo in longer rallies. Otherwise, he is going to get pushed around the court and become susceptible to an upset.

3: POSITIVE = Serve & Volley

Serve & Volley Points Won = 24/27
Three Losses Serve & Volley Won = 12/14

You can clearly see that Novak is doing well in this area and should build on bringing the battle to the front of the court in Paris to help hold serve more. Do it just enough to keep opponents guessing and pull it out on a big point because you have confidence in this play. Serve & volley works as a strong secondary pattern for the Serb.

4: NEGATIVE = Return Errors

Forehand Return Errors

Novak = 51
Opponents = 44

Backhand Return Errors

Novak = 42
Opponents = 36

Total Return Errors

Novak = 93
Opponents = 80

These match stats are very unlike him. Djokovic has arguably the best return game in the history of our sport, and his ability to put so many returns back in play is a strength of his game. We are not used to seeing him make more return errors than his lower-ranked opponents. This will need to be cleaned up in Paris.

Now let’s take the pulse of his game in Paris from his first-round match against Kovacevic.

1st serve % = 56%. Much lower than normal. His career average is 65%.
Forehands = 16 winners / 25 errors. That will work.
Backhands = 8 winners / 24 errors. Again, not bad, but not setting Paris on fire.
0-4 Rally Length = +7 (61 won / 54 lost) This needs to improve with stronger, serves, returns, Serve +1, and Return +1.
9+ Rally Length = +10 (16 won / 6 lost). This is a step in the right direction.
Total Net Points Won = 19/26. Solid numbers, coming forward slightly more than 8 times per set.
Break Points = Saved 3/5. The two he lost were 12 and 8-shot rallies.

SUMMARY

Marton Fucsovics has a stronger backhand than forehand. Novak should not overplay the Ad court. Go there when you have to, or to build the point, and then go hard to the Deuce court corner to extract forehand errors. This will be a nice test as Marton can play very solid tennis, but doing it for three straight sets of three out of five is a big ask.

Let’s keep our finger on the pulse of Novak’s game in Paris tonight and see how well he is building his game this year. History beckons.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Taking Novak Djokovic’s Pulse In Paris