Sunday, 15 May 2022 / Published in ATP Tour, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Return Of Serve, Rome

Rome 2022: Return Serve Position Analysis

G’day from Roma,

You can break down what happens in a tennis match into four simple categories.

Serving
Returning
Rallying
Approaching

Different players are going to employ different strategies, but in general, you are going to find minor variations in the patterns of play because players know what works and what doesn’t from playing hundreds of thousands of points. That’s what has brought them this far in their career. For example, forehands dominate backhands, and errors occur more than twice the amount as winners.

In general, we have a good idea of what we are watching. When a ball is hit down the middle of the court to a player’s backhand, and they quickly move around it to upgrade to a run-around forehand, we understand why. A forehand is a bigger weapon. More power, more chance to inflict pain.

This brings us to returning serve. Specifically, where a player stands to return 1st and 2nd serves here in Rome in the Round of 16. Here are the results from the round of 16:

Novak Djokovic def. Stan Wawrinka 6-2, 6-2
Alexander Zverev def. Alex De Minaur 6-3, 7-6(5)
Denis Shapovalov def. Rafael Nadal 1-6, 7-5, 6-2
Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Karen Khachanov 4-6, 6-0, 6-3
Casper Ruud def. Jenson Brooksby 6-3, 6-4
Felix Auger-Aliassime def. Marcos Giron 6-3, 6-2
Jannik Sinner Filip Krajinovic 6-2, 7-6(6)
Christian Garin def. Marin Cilic 6-3, 4-6, 6-4

The universal truth of staying back a little further to return 1st serves and stepping forward more to hit 2nd serves has been thrown out the proverbial window. Who knows what players are thinking because the variation is so big. The accepted norm is that you stand back against a harder first serve to be able to better deal with the power. And then you step in vs. a slower second serve and really go after it.

The Rome 2022 Round of 16 data set is below. The numbers are in meters, and the players in yellow were the match winners.

Let’s examine three data points to grasp what players were trying to achieve based on their return position.

1: Do Players Actually Step Further Forward vs. 2nd Serves?

Yes, and no.

Nine players out of 16 made contact with the ball further up into the court against 2nd serves compared to 1st serves. That leaves seven players who purposely moved back against a slower 2nd serve. Basically, half the data set thought they would win more stepping back than stepping in. That flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

When you analyze the eight match winners, half (4) were in the moving forward group, and the other half were in the moving back group. Dead even. Very difficult to draw any solid conclusions there.

Alexander Zverev moved forward the most between 1st and 2nd serves. He made contact with 2nd serves 2.71 meters further forward than the first serve. Ruud (1.19m), Khachanov (1.10m), and Krajinovic (1.09m) were the other players to move forward more than a meter between the two serves.

Wawrinka was the player that moved back the most, making contact 1.54 meters further back on average when contacting his 2nd serve versus the first serve. Sinner was the other player to move back more than a meter at 1.42m.

1st Serve Return Contact Point

There is a massive difference in how far back players contact the 1st serve. De Minaur was more than five meters behind the baseline to return first serves against Zverev, while Brooksby and Wawrinka were within a meter of the baseline returning first serves.

There is clearly no wrong or right here, as once again, the yellow cells (match winners) are evenly spread through the data set.

2nd Serve Return Contact Point

Brooksby was the only player in the Round of 16 that averaged making contact with the ball inside the baseline. His average was half a meter inside the baseline. He was one of seven players whose average was within two meters of the baseline, taking the ball early vs. 2nd serves.

The range is greater than five metres with where players stand to return 2nd serves. It’s basically all over the shop!

Summary

So the first thing to contemplate is why there is so much variation in where players stand to return. And then the focus is also on comparing 2nd serve returns versus 1st serve returns? Here are three points to consider:

Players that stand up in the court vs. 2nd serves are primarily trying to take time away from the server and get the ball back to them quickly, forcing a Serve +1 error. They like their chances to make a lot of returns and immediately hurt the opponent and extract the early error.
A player such as De Minaur stands way back, basically saying he is not going to miss a return all day long. Everything is coming back into play. And then he has the wheels to run everything down if he does return short and his opponent is on offense.
Also, consider the opponent. Do they like to use power in a Serve +1 situation, low and hard in their strike zone? Or is it better to hit the ball higher and heavier and deeper from further away, making it potentially more difficult to get the right timing. If the opponent is strong defensively and weaker offensively – especially against a slower, higher ball – then standing back, and looping makes sense.

I hope this analysis helps you reflect on your own game. It might be a good idea to experiment standing up on some second serves and standing back on others. Play around with it against different opponents and evaluate your results!

All the best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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