Thursday, 27 July 2017 / Published in Wimbledon

Roger Federer exposes the biggest lie in tennis (Part 4/5)

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS.

The First 4 Shots Video

Time to pick your poison.

Tennis looks random, kinda like pinball. Players typically hit cross court, but sometimes they also go down the line. Every now and then they also venture to the net. Nothing seems guaranteed.

It all looks random, but it’s not.

Tennis is actually a game of repeatable patterns. And those patterns produce percentages, which is exactly how you figure out how to be successful at this game…

Look at the following three WIN PERCENTAGES. They are Wimbledon averages from hundreds of thousands of points over 16 years from three different strategies.

Strategy 1 – Wins 46%
Strategy 2 – Wins 64%
Strategy 3 – Wins 68%

You have to now make three picks. You know the win percentages, but what you don’t know is the strategy connected to it.

Pick 1 = you must practice this 90% of the time. It will dominate your tennis existence.

Pick 2 = This pick gets the remaining 10% of your practice time. It’s basically just a sideshow.

Pick 3 = You can dismiss this from your training altogether. Just throw it out the window.

How did your picks go? Which strategy did you pick first?

Three Strategies

I know which one you picked first 🙂

Like every sane thinking human being, you wanted as much of that 68% win percentage as you can lay your hands on. Smart.

Now… when we take the covers off and see what’s under the hood… you are going to be very, very uncomfortable. You see, 68% is the win percentage for SERVE & VOLLEY over 16 years at Wimbledon in the men’s draw. You chose the one thing that you consistently ignore.

The 64% win percentage is finishing points at the net. The 46% win percentage is baseline points won.

I just turned your world upside down…

Wimbledon 2002-2017 Win Percentages: MEN Baseline / Approach / Serve & Volley

Year	Baseline	Net	Serve & Volley
2017	46%	65%	69%
2016	46%	64%	71%
2015	46%	64%	71%
2014	46%	66%	71%
2013	45%	66%	68%
2012	46%	65%	67%
2011	46%	64%	67%
2010	46%	65%	69%
2009	45%	65%	69%
2008	46%	64%	68%
2007	46%	62%	66%
2006	46%	62%	68%
2005	45%	61%	68%
2004	45%	62%	67%
2003	46%	62%	66%
2002	45%	61%	67%
AVERAGES	46%	64%	68%

Roger Federer Exposes The Biggest Lie In Tennis

Part 1 HERE

Part 2 HERE

Part 3 HERE

Is it really that simple?

Serve and volley is a specific strategy that you must commit to before you even know if you really have the upper hand or not. The fact you are serving certainly helps, but you have no idea what’s coming back, or how uncomfortable your opponent is before you have to commit to sprint forward to the net. At least with approaching you can get the opponent really off balance first before coming in.

All too often we muddy the water with varied opinions about serve and volley. Let’s not make that mistake again here.

Let.The.Numbers.Speak.For.Themselves.

Serve and volley consistently outperforms. It consistently delivers. It has never abandoned you.

For wayyyy too long we have seen a massive decline in the amount of serve and volley. There was this general global assumption that the players must know what they are doing – it really must not work.

It does. The win percentages have never been looked at – and that’s where the real truth is.

Remember our 18-23-year-olds?

In Part 2, I did an analysis of how much the 18-23 year male players served and volleyed at Wimbledon this year. Here’s a little reminder.

Tournament Averages: Serve & Volley

7.2% (1894/26,375) Overall
2.2% (103/4638) Players Aged 18-23

They overwhelmingly avoided serve and volley on the lush grass courts at Wimbledon. But should they? Do the youth of today’s game also perform better at the net than the baseline – even though they go out of their way to avoid it?

Here’s the answer…

25 Players Aged 18-23: Win Percentages

Baseline

Tournament Total = 46%
18-23yo = 47%

Approach & Volley

Tournament Total = 64%
18-23yo = 64%

Serve & Volley

Tournament Total = 68%
18-23yo = 73%

What the…..?

How ironic. The age group that shuns serve and volley – only does it 2.2% of total serve points versus 7.2 percent for everyone else – WINS 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS MORE than the tournament average…

Kids these days 🙂

TOMORROW

On Friday we conclude this series with serve and volley stats from Roger himself, with some other cameos from the past (like Pete Sampras). Tomorrow we highlight serve and volley for what it is – a true champion of our sport!!!

See you then,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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