Thursday, 08 June 2023 / Published in 0-4 Shots, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic

Preview 2: Djokovic v Alcaraz. New Predictive Analytics

G’day from Paris,

What a treat the tennis world is in for Friday afternoon in Paris! Novak Djokovic against Carlos Alcaraz. This match is going to stop all of us in our tracks. The new generation is ready to take a big step forward against the old generation. I look forward to writing an analysis of this Friday evening.

I also wrote another preview yesterday, outlining 10 themes to look for. Let’s call that Preview 1. You can click the following link to read it too.

PREVIEW 1: CLICK HERE

The following match metrics focus on these specific areas.

Rally length played
Rally length won
Total Winners
Total Errors
ABCD
Forehand Winners
Forehand Errors
Summary

To understand what we will see in the match, we can look back at the five matches each has played to reach this far and see where they are performing well and potential areas to attack. Let’s dig in and educate our tennis eye.

1: Rally Length Played

Alcaraz is playing slightly more points (61% to 58%) in the o-4 shot rally length than Novak is. This is to be expected, as Carlos likes to play aggressively right from the start of the point. Drop heat. Ask questions later.

2: Rally Length Won

We now find a substantial difference in performance in 0-4 shots. Djokovic has played 589 points in 0-4 shots, while Alcaraz has played 515. With these totals, you would expect Djokovic to have the most significant lead over his opponents in 0-4 shots, but it’s simply not the case.

Djokovic 0-4 Won = 55.8%
Alcaraz 0-4 Won = 62.3%

Alcaraz is definitely outperforming Djokovic in the all-important 0-4 shot category. These match metrics give us a glimpse into what strategy each player feels good about coming into this heavy-weight match.

Alcaraz enjoyed playing “first strike” tennis to the semi-final and will keep points short whenever possible against Djokovic. He is not going to all of a sudden change that winning strategy.

Djokovic outperforms Alcaraz in longer rallies of 5-8 shots and marginally more in 9+ shots. Djokovic will be looking to extend the rally against Alcaraz. That’s always in the Djokovic wheelhouse, and it will also be true for the semi-final.

3: Winners

This is fascinating information leading into the semi-final. Djokovic has slightly more winners but has A LOT more winners hit against him. Djokovic has hit 51 more winners than his opponents, but Alcaraz has hit 91. Djokovic only has 10 more forehand winners, while Alcaraz has 42. Djokovic only has five more backhand winners, while Alcaraz has 19.

This data is both a plus and a minus for Djokovic. Here’s how this can play out in the semi-final.

Scenario 1 – Alcaraz keeps blasting winners in the semi as he has during the rest of the tournament. Djokovic will find himself playing on defense more than he wants to. That can be tough physically, mentally, and emotionally.
Scenario 2 – Djokovic does a great job of playing defense and plays a lot more offense than Alcaraz is used to seeing on the other side of the court. This can hurt Alcaraz mentally and frustrate him.
Scenario 3 – Djokovic is like Spiderman, but then again, so is Alcaraz. Djokovic has the potential to frustrate Alcaraz by getting to so many balls defensively and making it very challenging for the Spaniard to hit winners.

Lastly, look at how opponents have hit winners against Alcaraz. Mainly with the forehand (37) and at the net (22). That’s a blueprint for Djokovic as well. Here’s a potential problem for the Serb. He has enjoyed hitting 41 backhand winners, but opponents have only hit 12 against Alcaraz. If Djokovic thinks he can use his backhand to hit a lot of winners, that would be a strategic mistake. It’s tough to do that vs. Alcaraz. Maybe a couple of backhands down the line or well-placed backhand drop shots. But that’s not going to be enough to drive him to victory.

It’s all about the forehand and finishing at net.

4: Errors

Interesting to see Djokovic has more forehand return errors and Alcaraz has more from his backhand. Both are about the same with forehand errors, but Alcaraz has significantly less from the backhand wing. One strategy I will be looking for is where the forehand errors occur. Look at the four baseline locations below – A, B, C, and D.

5: Forehands – Baseline Locations ABCD

This is a great way to understand where players are stronger and weaker at the back of the court. Let’s have a look at forehand winners for both players.

Firstly, I should apologize for A LOT of information here. But take it slowly, and you will understand the baseline like never before.

Let’s take Position A, for example. Novak has 26 winners from Position A, which is the most of any location. The way to find this is the top left table. Look at the top row. You have “From A” and a Total on the right side = 26.

So Position A is where both players are hitting the most winners, but it’s also where they are making the most errors. Djokovic has 26 winners and 51 errors from A, while Alcaraz has 33 winners and 50 errors from A.

Position A is where this semi-final may very well be decided. If either player goes neutral to Position A, they potentially will get hurt a lot. But if you can attack Position A, there are a lot of errors that can come from there. For both players, around half of all forehand errors come from Position A. It’s absolutely, positively the place to attack.

5: Backhands – Baseline Locations ABCD

The first thing to notice in the top two tables is the totals From C and D. Djokovic and Alcaraz only have 16 backhand winners from C but have 56 from D. That’s very typical. There is not enough angle out of C to do damage.

But in the same breath, Position D is where the overwhelming amount of backhand errors occur. There are 133 from C and only 35 from D, representing almost 80% from D. This is where Djokovic and Alcaraz are going to test the other. They both have ridiculously good defensive backhands, and it will be a source of pride for each player to yield as few backhand errors as possible out of Position D.

One thing to look for is each player hunting run-around forehands to attack backhands. That’s the primary way to extract backhand errors. We know Alcaraz will be looking to do this all the time. Djokovic must turn as many backhands into run-around forehands as possible to win this Ad court battle.

SUMMARY

Analyzing Djokovic’s and Alcaraz’s matches to the semi-finals gives us a fantastic look into what they are doing well and potential areas to exploit. But it’s important to remember that these stats are against other players. They encounter different primary and secondary strategies against each other when they go head-to-head. They will be trying to match up their strengths against potential weaknesses that they spot during the match.

This is one of the biggest matches in our sport in a while. I kind of like that it is a semi and not a final. It’s much more about them going head-to-head than winning a title. Whoever wins this match still has to play one more match and may not even win Roland Garros.

I am greatly looking forward to this battle. I hope this analysis educates your tennis eye and gives you something to look for in the match.

As you may have seen from my blog yesterday, I picked Djokovic to win in 5 sets. Once again, here’s a link to Preview 1. PREVIEW 1: CLICK HERE.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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