Saturday, 18 November 2023 / Published in ATP Finals, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Webinars

Novak’s Forehand Is Being Put To Sleep

NEW Webinar: Tuesday, November 21: 1.00 pm US Central / 8.00 pm CET

Webinar 35: The Backhand Cage

G’day From Torino,

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have won the year-end ATP Finals six times. Djokovic could very well be sitting alone at the top of the mountain after the dust has settled in Torino this weekend. He must get through Carlos Alcaraz and either Jannik Sinner (who he has already lost to this week) or Daniil Medvedev to take the title.

Is it a stretch to say Novak has been “struggling” in Torino this week? Maybe. Maybe not.

He has been pushed to three sets in all three of his round-robin matches and has lost one. He has had some argy-bargy with the crowd, broke a racket in half by stepping on it, and has given his box an earful on more than one occasion. It has not been smooth sailing.

I have watched all three of his matches from courtside this week, and one thing that was obvious to me was the overabundance of backhands he was hitting.

Too many backhands. Too few forehands. Clear as day.

Improve Your Groundstrokes: Technique & Tactics

Webinar 14: Forehand Playbook

Webinar 15: The Backhand Playbook

Webinar 32: Hitting Down The Line

When I worked with Novak and Marian Vajda from 2017-2019, we constantly beat the drum to hit more run-around forehands in the Ad court versus backhands. Novak may very well have the best backhand of all time, but the offensive performance from the backhand is still not in the same ballpark as his forehand.

The following table illustrates how dominant the forehand is over the backhand hitting winnings at the elite level of our sport – the ATP Finals.

When I showed Novak this table, it really resonated with him. It clearly identifies the dominance of the forehand from the court. But there are more layers to unpack here. It’s also about court position – in particular, hitting run-around forehands in the Ad court. It’s very much about turning backhands into forehands.

The next thing to understand is the four baseline locations.

The World’s Best Baseline Strategy

Webinar 1: Winning Singles Strategy

Webinar 26: ABCD Baseline Locations

Webinar 13: How Not To Lose

It’s straightforward for Novak to hit forehands in Positions A and B. The key is to upgrade and hit as many forehands as possible in Positions C and D. That’s the secret sauce of baseline play.

The table below is an analysis of 293 forehand winners from 18 matches at the 2018 Australian Open. All players were right-handed. The data set is not that big, but it clearly shows the pattern of where forehand winners are mostly struck from for right0handed players – the AD COURT.

Forehand Winners

Struck From Ad Court = 59%
Struck From Deuce Court = 41%

Now, let’s refocus back on Torino and the total amount of forehands and backhands all four semi-finalists are hitting from their round-robin matches.

Raise Your Singles Strategy IQ

Webinar 10: Primary & Secondary Patterns

Webinar 33: First Strike Tennis

Webinar 24: Anticipation & Positioning

This breakdown exposes a weak point in the Djokovic game plan in round-robin play.

Total Forehands Hit

Djokovic = 49.1%
Medvedev = 51.8%
Sinner = 55.6%
Alcaraz = 56.0%

Novak is the only player who has reached the semi-finals that is hitting more rally backhands over forehands. When the ball is coming to him through the Ad court, he accepts too many shots as backhands instead of upgrading to the more potent forehand wing. The blame is two-fold.

Opponents are targeting his backhand more because they don’t get hurt nearly as much.
Novak is accepting the ball to his backhand because he feels comfortable with this stroke.

Comfort and attack don’t live in the same building.

All three of the other players are showing a greater desire to hit more forehands than backhands. This allows more control of baseline exchanges, more opportunities to force errors on the other side of the net, and improved court position because of the tougher shot to deal with.

Keep an eye on the number of forehands and backhands he hits against Alcaraz this evening. If the Spaniard can force the Serb to hit an overabundance of backhands in the Ad court, that is going to make it easier for Carlos to find run-around forehands on his own baseline. That could be the match right there.

Best,

Craig

How To Form A Winning Strategy

Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

Webinar 31: Wimbledon Alcaraz d Djokovic Analysis

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Novak’s Forehand Is Being Put To Sleep