Saturday, 19 November 2022 / Published in ATP Finals, NextGen ATP Finals

NEXTGEN Scoring Format Is The Future

TWITTER: November, 2022

TWITTER: WHICH FORMAT WON?

Want to improve tennis?

Update. The. Scoring. System.

Change it to make tennis a more exciting product. Change it to have a more predictable and more appealing average match time. Change it to help lower-level tournaments attract more fans & become financially viable. Change it to better face the global onslaught from Pickleball, Padel, and Beach Tennis. Change it because it is a more exciting format.

Before you jump out of your seat and lose your ever-loving mind, I want you to hold my hand and let me walk you through a head-to-head comparison between the 2021 editions of NextGen and ATP Finals. Both tournaments had the exact same round-robin format starting with two groups of four players that migrated into a knockout semi-final format. Both formats had 15 matches.

Disclaimer: I attended the NextGen and ATP Finals last year and this year in Milan and Torino. I sat on the side of the court (great seats, thank you, Federation Italian Tennis) for almost every match. I experienced the two scoring formats first-hand, and there really is no comparison at the end of the day.

NEXTGEN FORMAT

The NextGen plays first to four games, No Ad, best of five sets. A seven-point tie-break was played at three games all in each set.

ATP Finals FORMAT

Best two out of three set format. Same as it ever was.

WHY CHANGE?

Let’s start with this quote from Heraclitus.

“The only constant in life is change.”

I am advocating for change because I think the alternative has many improvements over the traditional format.

NEXTGEN vs. ATP Finals

I collected data in seven specific areas. Let’s go through them one by one.

1: Maximum Points Played In A Match

217 points NEXTGEN – Musetti def. Gaston 4-3(4), 4-3(6), 2-4, 3-4(7), 4-2
216 points ATP FINALS – Medvedev def. Zverev 6-3, 6-7(3), 7-6(6)

So the first argument against the NextGen scoring is that there simply isn’t enough tennis played when you compete first to four, best of five sets. That’s simply not true. The longest match at NEXTGEN was 217 points. The longest match at the ATP Finals was 216 points. So they can both go long.

2: Average Match Time

NEXTGEN = 1 hour & 29 minutes.
ATPFINALS = 1 hour & 43 minutes
Difference = 14 minutes

The NEXTGEN scoring system came in right at an hour and a half on average for the matches. If you are the broadcaster, that’s a far more appealing number than having a match go 14 minutes longer at 1:43.

3: Average Points Per Match

NEXTGEN = 132 points per match
ATP FINALS = 144 points per match
Difference = 12 points per match

The NEXTGEN format generated, on average, 12 fewer points per match. So when you link this data point with the one above (Average Match Time), you see that, on average, you are playing 12 extra points in a 14-minute period. That’s not a lot of points in that amount of time. That’s some pretty slow tennis.

4: Matches Lasting Less Than 70 Minutes

NEXTGEN = 3 matches
ATPFINALS = 3 matches

Now, let’s go look at short matches. You would think that NEXTGEN would have significantly more short matches, but it’s not true. Really short matches can be defined as lasting 70 minutes of less. Both formats had three matches here.

5: Break Points Generated

NEXTGEN = 213 break points (62%)
ATPFINALS = 128 break points (38%)
Difference = 85 break points

This is where the rubber meets the road between the two formats. There is nothing more exciting, more compelling in a tennis match than the excitement of break points. If you are a fan, you are absolutely putting your iPhone down and watching these “king-maker” points that ultimately decide the outcome of the match. The NEXTGEN format accounted for 62% of all break points between the two tournaments. It’s night and day, really. NEXTGEN is a vastly superior format when it comes to the exciting times in a game.

6: Matches Generating 12+ Break Points

NEXTGEN = 11/15 matches
ATPFINALS = 1/15 break point

This is another very one-sided stat that greatly favors the NEXTGEN format. Watching 12 or more break points in a match is going to keep the fans engaged, whether they are sitting court-side or watching on television. The NEXTGEN format had 73% (11/15) of it’s matches containing 12+ break points. The ATP Finals had only 7% (1/15). One format is vastly superior to creating excitement in a match.

7: Tie-Breaks

NEXTGEN = 20 tie-breaks
ATPFINALS = 9 tie-breaks

Tie-breaks are high energy and command a lot of attention from the fans. The fact that the NEXTGEN format had more than double that of the ATP Finals is yet another nail in the coffin for the traditional format.

SUMMARY

Playing first to four, No Ad, over five sets is a valid scoring system for our sport. I think you can see above that it definitely creates more exciting moments in a match. So this is how I think it should be rolled out.

Grand Slam Events – stay the same. Best of five sets.
Masters 1000 & ATP 500 events – stay the same. Best of three sets.
ATP 250 events & lower – An ideal place to introduce the NEXTGEN format.

ATP 250 tournaments and Challenger level events all too often struggle financially. It’s not easy to make a living for the player or the tournament at this entry level to the Top 100 in the world. As you can clearly see above, the NEXTGEN format provides more excitement for the fans. It provides more big points, more tie-breaks and more energy.

Let’s face it… the traditional set to six has a lot of dead time at the start of the match. I was courtside for Rafael Nadal vs. Casper Ruud earlier this week in Torino. Nadal won 7-5, 7-5. Until each set reached 5-5, there were A LOT of people around me on their iPhones scrolling social media. Once the match reached 5-5 and got interesting, they finally put their phones down.

I think there is plenty of room in our sport to play different formats. We are already doing it with best of three sets vs. best of five sets. At one stage, we didn’t play tie-breaks. Thank goodness we do now.

I invite you to open your mind to expanding the NEXTGEN format. Why don’t you incorporate it into your own practices and see for yourself what it is like. I look forward to your review!

All the best from Torino,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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NEXTGEN Scoring Format Is The Future

TWITTER: November, 2022

TWITTER: WHICH FORMAT WON?