G’day From Rome,
I was courtside for Rafa’s 6-1, 6-3 loss yesterday against Hubert Hurkacz. As all eyes look forward to Paris and Roland Garros, let’s discuss what he did well at the Foro Italico and what needs to improve by the time he clocks in for work again on Court Philippe Chatrier.
THE OPENING GAME
Point 1 – Rafa crushed one backhand and seven forehands in the opening point, with his last forehand being dispatched as a cross court winner – way to take control and immediately engage the crowd.
Point 2 – Rafa ripped a 2nd serve return high and deep to Hubi, instantly drawing a forehand error long. Seeing this point just once made me think Rafa would mine the high forehand all day. Unfortunately for the 10-time champion, it didn’t quite work out that way.
Break Point 1 (2nd serve 30/40) – Rafa backed up too far on a 2nd serve return, and the ball dropped to around his waist. He couldn’t get under the ball to lift it and dumped it halfway up the net. He should have been attacking it instead of rolling it.
Break Point 2 (2nd serve at Ad Out) – Overall, it was a better quality point, but Rafa’s last shot was a routine rally forehand that landed at the bottom of the net.
Break Point 3 (1st serve Ad Out) – Hurkacz hit a good first serve out wide, and Rafa sailed a forehand return long.
Break Point 4 (1st serve Ad Out) – Hurkacz cleaned the center T line for an ace.
Break Point 5 (2nd serve Ad Out) – Rafa hit a passive backhand return and was always behind in the rally. He blew a defensive forehand out the back on the last shot.
The opening game took 14 minutes and included 22 points. Rafa saw three break points against second serves but couldn’t execute the break. It could have, would have, should have been a different match if he had broken first and then held.
Rafa’s commitment to go after the ball was more positive than his round-one victory over Bergs. Even after losing the first set 6-1 against Hurkacz, I thought Rafa was right in the mix. But he clearly wasn’t by the end of the second set, as the gap between the two players became increasingly evident.
Total Points Won
- Hurkacz = 61% (66/109)
- Nadal = 39% (43/109)
Both Rafa and Hurkacz faced seven break points on serve for the match. Hubi saved every one of them, while Rafa only saved three. Imagine, for a moment, that this situation was reversed. In one way, these handful of break points were the match. Well, yes, and no.
It’s also important to note that both players played eight service games, and Hubi won all of his while Rafa could only win half of his (4/8). That’s a sizable gap between the two players. And then you look at the total serve points won, and the gap between the two players gets even more comprehensive.
Total Serve Points Won (1st and 2nd combined)
- Hurkacz = 73% (41/56)
- Nadal = 53% (28/53)
There was a 20 percentage point gap between the two players with points won on serve. That’s significant and identifies an underlying dominance from Hurkacz as the match unfolded. Hurkacz’s first serve speed was considerably faster than Nadal’s, but things evened out more on second serves.
Average Serve Speed
1st Serves
- Hurkacz = 128 mph
- Nadal = 113 mph
2nd Serves
- Hurkacz = 101 mph
- Nadal = 98 mph
As Rafa attempts to win Roland Garros for a mind-bending 15th time, his first serve is not behaving like it used to. He needs more free points to create more pressure and also to feed the Serve +1 forehand machine.
Hurkacz had a 27 mph gap in average serve speed between his first and second serve. Rafa was about half of that at 15 mph. Consequently, in this match, Rafa only won 53% (20/38) of his first serve points and 53% (8/15) of his second serve points.
RALLY LENGTH
Rafa got dusted up the most in short rallies, which used to be his domain on crushed red brick dust.
Rally Length Points Won
- 0-4 Shots: Hurkacz 66/Nadal 43. Gap = 23 points for Hurkacz
- 5-8 Shots: Hurkacz 12/Nadal 14. Gap = 2 points for Nadal
- 9+ Shots: Hurkacz 15/Nadal 9. Gap = 6 points for Hurkacz
Match winners overwhelmingly win the “first strike” battle in the 0-4 shot range. This match was typical, and Hurkacz had a significant 23-point advantage when either player hit a maximum of just two shots on the court. Hurkacz’s advantage was just four points when you combine the other two rally lengths together.
As counter-intuitive as it may seem, tennis on all surfaces, including at the Foro Italico, is dominated by the first two shots of the rally more than anything else.
When Rafa soon heads to Paris to prepare for Roland Garros, one part of his practice regime should include playing points where he only gets to hit two balls in the court and then catches the ball to stop the point. He needs to put a premium on the start of the point. Recognize that everything will come undone very quickly if he can’t wrestle control of the first four shots of the rally.
FOREHANDS & BACKHANDS
This data uncovers a compelling story about how Rafa typically goes about his business of dominating opponents from the back of the court.
Baseline Points Won
- Hurkacz = 52% (32/61)
- Nadal = 38% (23/61)
It’s extremely rare for Rafa to lose this specific battle in a match. It’s even rarer for him to win less than 40% of his baseline points.
Groundstroke Totals
- Hurkacz: 88 forehands / 98 backhands
- Nadal: 93 forehands / 81 forehands
Overall, Hurkacz hit 10 more backhands than forehands, which is precisely what Rafa would have wanted coming into the match. Pounding the opponent’s backhand into submission with cross-court forehands is the Spanish modus operandi.
Add on top that Rafa hit 12 more forehands than backhands, and you quickly uncover that he was able to get the match-up he wanted. He almost always wants to hit more forehands and have the opponent hit more backhands.
RETURNING SERVE
Hubi was not troubled at all by Rafa’s first serve, winning an impressive 47% (18/38) of those points. Rafa only won 17% (5/30) of Hubi’s first serve points. Hubi dominated with first serves down the T in the Deuce court and heavy kick serves out wide in the Ad court. Rafa’s game is not yet ready to dominate return games like he once was.
Rafa won 53% (8/15) of his 2nd serve points, while Hurkacz was at 62% (16/26). It was behind first serves where Hurkacz pulled away.
SUMMARY
The opening game really set the tone. I want to think it would have given Rafa a huge shot of adrenaline and a buffer that would help take away nerves, let him really settle into the match, and crush the ball.
Instead, Rafa lost set one 6-1 and won only 25 points to 38. As the second set unfolded, that same dominant point score ratio was always in Hurkacz’s favor. The Pole won 28 points to 18, and Rafa was always playing catch-up.
Now, let’s project forward to Roland Garros. Rafa has played six matches (won four) in Madrid and Rome combined. That’s a solid number to prepare for Paris. If he plays too many, the risk of picking up a minor injury dramatically increases. He will be lucky to make week two in Paris based on his Rome form.
Rafa’s major advantage in playing a 5-set match at Roland Garros is not nearly as potent as it once was. He has clearly lost half a step and, at 37 years old, does not have the fitness/stamina advantage he once enjoyed.
Rafa needs a kind draw. He needs to play from ahead and be the first to break in the set. He needs to let go of his fears regarding past injuries and let it all hang out. One more wild ride at Roland Garros would be breathtaking.
He is not that far away from something special if the stars align.