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PROMO VIDEO
The Truth About Clay Court Tennis Strategy.
How exactly is a clay court different than a hard court?
The way your foot slides on clay and the way the ball reacts with the granules of “terre battue” is different than playing on hard. But is there more to it than that?
If you look for the answer on practice courts all over the world, you would be led to believe that grinding from the back of the court is THE most important thing there is to be successful. The traditional “clay court” mantra focuses on repetition, shot tolerance and suffering from the back of the court. Build a trench back there and don’t miss.
Is that the same viewpoint we get when we analyze clay court match data?
That’s precisely what Dirtballer is all about. Using big data to drill down to the essence of winning and losing on dirt. Get rid of the guessing.
Clay court tennis has never been under the microscope like this before!
I want to give you a taste of what kind of information is under the hood when Dirtballer is released on April 15, 2019.
On the front page of a Roland Garros stats sheet you will find the following 17 line items. They are all specific parts of a match. Small battles all over the court that help decide the final outcome.
Here’s the burning question…
Which of these battles MATTERS MOST to winning on clay? Some of them are a lot more important than others!
We went through the entire men’s and women’s draw at Roland Garros 2017 and analyzed how many times the match winner also performed better than the match loser in each line item. Here they are…
Seventeen Match Metrics
Below are the 17 metrics we analyzed on clay court matches only.
SERVING / RETURNING on Clay
- 1st Serve Percentage
- 1st Serve Points Won
- 2nd Serve Points Won
- Aces
- Average 1st Serve Speed
- Fewer Double Faults
- 1st Serve Return Points Won
- 2nd Serve Return Points Won
Clay Court RALLY Metrics
- Baseline Points Won
- Total Winners
- Net Points Won
- Less Unforced Errors
- Less Forced Errors
RALLY LENGTH
- 0-4 Shots
- 5-8 Shots
- 9+ Shots
SCORE
- Percentage Of Break Points Won
To begin with, it’s vital you know what you are looking at. When you look up the word “correlation,” this definition comes up –> “the process of establishing a relationship between two or more things.”
That’s exactly what the focus is here. This is an examination of winning matches AND winning a specific match metric. The following data is from the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017.
We always start with is a 50-50 battle. Two players walk on the court and have an even chance of attaining victory. For example, when you look at #13, which is aces, you will see the percentage is 57.2%. That means that of everyone that won their match, 57.2% of the time the match winner also performed better than the match loser in hitting more aces. In summary, 57.2% of the time, the match winner served more aces than the match loser. It’s only a 7.2 percentage point increase over 50-50, so it’s really not that influential.
The end-game is to examine which line items on a stats sheet mean the MOST to winning matches. Let’s get to it!!!
2017 Roland Garros Women – Clay Court Match Metric / Averages
| # | Match Metric | Match Winner | Match Loser | Win Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-4 Shots | 55.5% | 44.5% | 84.5% |
| 2 | Baseline Points Won | 54.1% | 42.6% | 83.9% |
| T3 | 1st Serve Points Won | 67.5% | 56.1% | 82.8% |
| T3 | 1st Serve Return Points Won | 43.9% | 32.5% | 82.8% |
| T5 | 2nd Serve Points Won | 50.2% | 40.5% | 76.4% |
| T5 | 2nd Serve Return Pts Won | 59.5% | 49.8% | 76.4% |
| 7 | Winners | 18.0 | 13.9 | 68.0% |
| 8 | 5-8 Shots | 54.8% | 45.2% | 67.8% |
| 9 | Less Unforced Errors | 15.7 | 19.6 | 66.4% |
| 10 | Break Points Won % | 53.7% | 43.0% | 66.0% |
| 11 | Less Forced Errors | 14.7 | 17.5 | 65.6% |
| 12 | 1st Serve % | 64.5% | 62.8% | 58.0% |
| 13 | Aces | 2.7 | 1.7 | 57.2% |
| 14 | 9+ Shots | 54.3% | 45.7% | 55.7% |
| 15 | Less Double Faults | 4.0 | 4.5 | 54.4% |
| 16 | Net Points Won | 66.8% | 59.9% | 53.6% |
| 17 | Average 1st Serve Speed | 155.3 km/h | 154.7km/h | 51.7% |
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Let’s go through each one, starting with No. 17.
#17 = Average 1st Serve Speed (51.7%)
This metric has the least influence of winning and losing in the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017. All match winners averaged hitting their first serves at 155.3 km/h, while all match losers averaged 154.7 km/h – a difference of just 0.6 km/h. Match winners only won this metric 51.7% of the time.
#16 = Net Points Won (53.6%)
Whenever you look at a stat, the first thing you compare it to is the starting point – which in this case is a 50-50 battle. Anything above 50% is good. Anything below 50% won’t get you to the finish line first. Notice here that both match winners and match losers were well above 50%, signaling that the net is a great place to be, even on clay. Match winners averaged winning a very high 66.7%, while match losers thoroughly enjoyed a 59.9% win percentage. The net rules on dirt for everyone.
#15 = Less Double Faults (54.4%)
There was only 0.5 double faults per match difference between match winners (4.0) and match losers (4.5), which clearly tells us that this is not a significant point of separation between winning and losing. Match winners performed better, but only marginally so, which is why serving less double faults is ranked 15th in influence on winning a match.
#14 = 9+ Shots (55.7%)
Hold. The. Bus! This is the beating heart of traditional clay court coaching. This is the mantra. This is the ingrained philosophy of clay court development from Barcelona to Buenos Aires. Grind. Be patient. Have superior shot tolerance. Suffer. The player that wins the long rallies wins the most…
It’s. Simply. Not. True.
Winning the battle of “Extended Rallies” ranks only 14th best out of 17 match metrics, yielding a modest 55.7% advantage. Also, think of it this way. 100% of players that lost their matches won 44.3% of rallies of 9 shots or longer. Match losers, as it turns out, are actually very consistent!
Let’s put this in context of the “Player Development Pathway.” When young players are learning their game, it’s 100% correct to focus on getting as many balls in the court as possible. Consistency is the gateway to everything else that follows. But once you start competing, and winning matters, hitting 10 shots in a row in the court does not have as big of an influence over the final outcome as we thought.
Lastly, clay is revealing itself to be just like any other surface. Here’s an inconvenient truth about tennis – the longer the rally goes, the more even it becomes! You may want to read that again to let it really sink in…
#13 = Aces (57.2%)
Match winners averaged 2.7 aces per match, while match losers averaged 1.7. One ace per match is the only difference! What is also in play here is match winners must also be benefiting from a sprinkling of service winners, unreturned serves and easier Serve +1 forehands and backhands on the back of their bigger serve.
#12 = First Serve Percentage (58.0%)
One of the biggest cliches in our sport is “get your first serve in,” yet this match metric does not even make the Top 10! Match winners averaged making 64.5%, while match losers averaged making 62.8% – a gap of just 1.7 percentage points.
First serves are a double edge sword. If you make too little, you are exposing too much pressure on the second serve. If you make too many, you are not going for it enough, and it may as well be a second serve. The key takeaway is that there are eleven other metrics more important than making your first serve!
#11 Less Forced Errors (65.6%)
Match winners averaged committing 14.7 forced errors per match, while match losers were at 19.6. It’s also important to note the big jump from 1st Serve Percentage (58.0%) to Less Forced Errors (65.6%) – an increase of 7.6 percentage points, which is the second highest leap between two metrics out of the field of 17. I am a huge fan of forcing errors in a match, and I must admit I was surprised it was not ranked higher. We are always learning…
#10 = Break Points Won Percentage (66.0%)
Firstly, this metric is an overall percentage – not a total of break points accumulated in the match. So if you converted two of four, you are at 50%, which is a superior percentage than if you convert 10 of 22, which is 45%. The variable here is score lines like 7-6, 1-6, 7-5. When you have one set that completely gets away from a player, it’s more accurate to look at the overall percentage than the total.
I found this metric fascinating – mainly because there are still NINE more line items that matter more to winning.
#9 = Less Unforced Errors (66.4%)
It’s interesting that making less unforced errors ranked higher than making less forced errors, but only by less than one percentage point.
- Less Forced Errors = 65.6%
- Less Unforced Errors = 66.4%
- Difference = 0.8 percentage points
Match winners only committed 15.7 unforced errors per match, while match losers were at 19.6. A good way to think of this dynamic is like this. There is a difference of 4.2 unforced errors per match. Four gifts per match that the opponent does not have to earn. Four free points a match is a BIG deal.
#8 = 5-8 Shots (67.8%)
Remember that extended rallies of 9+ shots were at 55.7%, which gives 5-8 Shots a substantial 12.1 percentage point increase. Match winners won north of two out of three matches when they won more points in this crucial rally length. When you analyze this rally length, you see very “smart” players dominating here. The best analogy to understand this rally length is chess. It’s all about using 3 to 4 moves to wrestle control of the encounter.
Significant takeaway = winning mid-length rallies is vastly superior to winning long rallies. Burn that into your brain.
#7 = Winners (68.0%)
This is another line item that rips apart the traditional clay court paradigm of consistency, shot tolerance and grinding. Hitting winners has a higher correlation to winning a match that forcing errors or reducing unforced errors.
This is another nail in the coffin of thinking massive repetition in a match is the answer. It’s not. We actually play an aggressive sport way more than we play a consistent sport. This is just further proof.
Match winners averaged hitting 18.0 winners per match, while match losers only averaged 13.9. This screams at us that reaching out and controlling our own destiny with aggression is way more important than grinding and pushing and hoping our opponent is going to miss.
Tied #5 = 2nd Serve Return Points Won (76.4%)
As you may imagine, performance around second serves has always been, and still is a HUGE metric that separates winning and losing. Match winners averaged winning 59.2% of second serve return points, while match losers were under water at 49.8%.
This is another “aggressive” statistic that rewards the returner for attacking a weaker second serve. This metric DEMANDS a considerable amount of time dedicated to it on the practice court. It’s high time to switch out some of your time grinding at the baseline with practicing second serve returns. The No. 1 target is right down the middle of the court at the server. Pressure them with time and make them have to move away from the ball.
Tied #5 = 2nd Serve Points Won (76.4%)
Dirtballer shatters some old tennis myths and validates others. The age-old expression of “you are only as good as your second serve” holds very true here, with 2nd Serve Points Won being one of the leading five indicators of winning matches.
Here’s the deal… how often do you specifically work on your second serve? My guess is not nearly enough. When we watch matches at all levels all over the world, the forehand and backhand technique typically appear to be more fundamentally sound than the serve technique. The reason is time and focus. The 2nd serve often gets left behind in the wash. I encourage you to spend more time in this area developing a smooth motion, reaching up high, getting the serve deep in the service box with spin, and direct it to your opponent’s backhand “jam” location.
Second serves matter on clay. Always have. Always will.
Tied #3 = 1st Serve Points Won (82.8%)
More than eight times out of 10, the player that performed better with their first serve in the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017 won the match. Big deal. Huge deal!!! It’s interesting to pair this metric with No. 17 on the list, which is Average 1st Serve Speed, which mattered the least. So what do we make of this? When it comes to 1st serves, power is definitely one component, but there are others… and that’s where we need to focus. We know making right around six out of 10 in the court is the average at Slams, so that takes care of the consistency aspect. Then there is the direction of the 1st serve, which is critical. The ability to hit spots, or knock over a ball can, is a significant asset. Other key factors include depth, spin, taking advantage of the court position of the returner, and taking their time away.
Tied #3 = 1st Serve Return Points Won (82.8%)
As you will learn in Dirtballer, this is an area where Rafael Nadal creates a MONSTER imbalance over opponents. 1st Serve Returns tap into your defensive skills much more than offensive. The ability to block the ball back in the court again & again builds pressure on the server to do more with their first serve, which overheats it. What also screams at us here is that it does not matter what surface we play on, performance around the first serve and the first serve return never, ever diminish.
#2 = Baseline Points Won (83.9%)
A baseline rally kicks in once the serve and return have been put into play, so it starts with a rally length of three shots. We know that long rallies of 9+ Shots rank only 14th in influence on winning matches, so when you see baseline points ranked so highly, it does not necessarily mean looong baseline points. The baseline has always been where most of the action is in our sport, so it makes perfect sense that having proficiency with forehands and backhands is ranked this high.
#1 = 0-4 Shots (84.5%)
It does not matter if you are analyzing two young boys playing in Spain, two professional women playing at Roland Garros, or two kangaroos playing on the dark side of the moon, the 0-4 shot rally length is the most abundant, and also decides who will WIN more than anything else.
Uncovering that the 0-4 Shot rally length is the No. 1 indicator of winning on clay will come as a shock to many players and coaches. Ultimately, this is the proof that will help make our practice courts far more efficient all over the world. The four shots in this rally length are the serve, return, serve +1 and return +1. These shots DEMAND significant attention.
SUMMARY – How To Improve Your Clay Court Strategy
Let’s be crystal clear on this…
The greatest indicator of winning a match on clay is winning the battle in the 0-4 Shot range. The second highest is the baseline, which is also attached to the 0-4 shot rally length, with 3 shot and 4 shot rallies – which happen more than any other baseline rally lengths.
When you also look at the next four metrics, they are also very closely aligned with the 0-4 shot rally length.
This list (Roland Garros women 2017) first and foremost is a BLUEPRINT for winning clay court tennis matches. This is not opinion. It’s not guesswork. It’s not biased. There is no slant to champion one metric over the other. These are official stats that uncover the hidden battles in a match.
Every other major global sport uses match analytics as the beating heart of their operation. Tennis is just arriving at that tipping point right now.
Welcome to Dirtballer. Welcome to the truth about clay court tennis.
All the best,
Craig
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