Sunday, 16 July 2023 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon

2023 Wimbledon: Where Djokovic Serves On Break Points

Gday from Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic takes on Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final later this afternoon in a blockbuster match-up for the ages.

Djokovic is playing for history. If he wins, he ties Roger Federer with eight Wimbledon titles. He would have also won the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and now Wimbledon. Only the US Open remains to win the calendar-year Grand Slam.

I picked Djokovic to win the tournament, and that does not change because Carlos Alcaraz is standing on the other side of the court. I think they split the first two sets and Djokovic proves too strong and consistent down the stretch and wins in four sets. Hoping for a great match and I feel confident these two will deliver.

Regardless of the final outcome, this match is probably going to come down to either one, two, or three points on Djokovic’s serve. These points will be break points. If Djokovic can save them, he wins the match. If Alcaraz wins them, he could be the new champion.

It’s important to understand Djokovic has only been broken three times for the entire tournament, and faced just 19 break points. Let’s dive into where Djokovic has served on those break points as a preview to what he might do on the big points this afternoon in the final.

AD COURT 2ND SERVES

This is the beating heart of the final outcome right here. Eight of the 19 break points were second serves in the Ad court. Here’s what to know:

All six wide and body serves were hit as backhand returns.
Sinner and Hurkacz both hit backhand returns on the body serves – but could have easily upgraded to a forehand return.
Djokovic’s average 2nd serve speed to the final is 94 mph. ALL the wide and body serves are well below that in the 70-80 mph range.
When Djokovic did go down the T, he hits a “hybrid” 2nd serve as a fast slice serve to catch the returner by surprise and hopefully extract a forehand return error. That’s exactly what happened vs. Cachin.

The bottom line here is that if Djokovic is going to serve a really slow second serve on break point in the Ad court, Alcaraz either needs to step way inside the backhand and take it early and attack OR step around the backhand return and upgrade to a forehand return and rip the cover off the ball.

This collection of points will be where the match is won and lost. All the rest is just noise.

AD COURT 1ST SERVES

Djokovic has a good mix here with his first serves in the Ad court to keep the opponent guessing.

4 wide serves / 3 T serves.
The serve is coming fast so the goal for Alcaraz is to block more to get into the point.
Djokovic is using the power at the start of the point to attack the forehand. the last shot of the point was a forehand error five times, a forehand volley winner once and a forehand groundstroke winner for Rublev to break serve.

The goal here is not to guess. Just take the serve on it’s merits and do everything possible to get it deep down the middle of the court and survive the serve. Djokovic is giving you all the power you need. Use it back against him and block it deep right at him.

DEUCE COURT 1ST SERVES

Djokovic went wide twice and immediately forced a forehand return error. The other break point was a fast serve down the T to Rublev that helped get Djokovic ahead in the point. Rublev missed his Return +1 forehand.

Key here is to cover the wide serve and give up down the T.
Djokovic has a very good slice wide, so cover that more down the T and block the return back cross court to his forehand, hoping to extract a Serve +1 forehand error.

Slicing wide is a favorite shot of Djokovic’s under pressure. The T is a smaller target, so give him that and slice the backhand return if you can get to it. Otherwise, sit on the forehand return and take your chances.

DEUCE COURT 2ND SERVES

The only second serve was a fairly quick “hybrid” 2nd serve at 102 mph. Remember his average is only 93mph. Definitely be ready for either the slow kicker around 75-85 mph of the fast slice “hybrid” serve above 100mph. He could easily switch between the two based on how much risk he wants to take and anticipating what Alcaraz is expecting.

SUMMARY

It’s important to note that only three points ended in a backhand error. Remember there was also one double fault. Djokovic likes to attack the strength. He likes to rush the size of the forehand backswing and let the opponent overhit.

Only one break point reached double digits. Alcaraz is going to have to be rock-solid on his forehand side in these moments if he is going to take victory. He needs to hit his big shots to big targets so that the pressure of the moment doesn’t squeeze the ball out of the court.

Second serves in the Ad court on break point for both players will be the crucible of this match. Whoever plays more solid (not flashy) will be the Wimbledon champion.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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2023 Wimbledon: Where Djokovic Serves On Break Points

Gday from Wimbledon.

AD COURT 1ST SERVES

DEUCE COURT 1ST SERVES

DEUCE COURT 2ND SERVES