G’day from Paris,
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will play for the 59th time in the quarter-finals of Roland Garros on Wednesday. Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head 30-28. Djokovic won their last meeting, which was at Roland Garros in 2021.
All of that will be water under the bridge when they do battle in the marque night session on Court Philippe Chatrier. Odds are it is going to be a cool evening, with the temperate around 10-15 degrees celsius (50-59 Fahrenheit).
The first thing to consider is how well these two players have progressed through the Roland Garros draw the past week. Here’s the breakdown
Rafael Nadal
- Rd 1 def. Jordan Thompson 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
- Rd 2 def. Corentin Moutet 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
- Rd 3 def. Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
- Rd 4 def. Felix Auger-Aliassime 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
Novak Djokovic
- Rd 1 def. Yoshihito Nishioka 6-3, 6-1, 6-0
- Rd 2 def. Alex Molcan 6-2, 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Rd 3 def. Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
- Rd 4 def. Diego Schwartzman 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
Below are 25 match metrics for both Djokovic and Nadal from their four matches to the quarter-finals. This is going to give you a solid feel for how they are performing across the board.
The most surprising one is Djokovic’s superior performance in the 0-4 rally length.
1: Aces
- Djokovic 21
- Nadal 7
- Djokovic has the clear edge here with the potential for more free points from his first serve.
2: Double Faults
- Djokovic 2
- Nadal 7
- The only way double faults will become a factor is if they come on a break point, or contribute from a momentum standpoint with a player getting broken.
3: 1st Serves In (tournament average = 63%)
- Djokovic 71%
- Nadal 65%
- Djokovic has the highest number (71%) of all players still left in the tournament.
4: 1st Serve Points Won (tournament average = 68%)
- Djokovic 77%
- Nadal 73%
- Djokovic is doing more damage with his first serve so far this tournament compared to Nadal..
5: 2nd Serve Points Won (tournament average = 50%)
- Djokovic 56%
- Nadal 63%
- Nadal does an outstanding job of following up his serve with a Serve +1 forehand, which raises his win percentage.
6: Service Games Won (tournament average = 75%)
- Djokovic 94% (49/52)
- Nadal 85% (52/61)
- Djokovic is having a very strong serve tournament in his run to the quarter-finals.
7: Fastest 1st Serve
- Djokovic 200 kph
- Nadal 196 kph
- Very similar first-serve speed.
8: Fastest 2nd Serve
- Djokovic 184 kph
- Nadal 170 kph
- Djokovic likes to surprise opponents, especially to their forehand return, with a “hybrid” 2nd serve = a hard slice.
9: Average 1st Serve Speed
- Djokovic 182 kph
- Nadal 181 kph
- Essentially the same.
10: Average 2nd Serve Speed
- Djokovic 143 kph
- Nadal 155 kph
- Djokovic likes to primarily hit a heavy kick to the backhand with his 2nd serve, which is slower than Rafa’s slice to the backhand return.
11: Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve (tournament average = 32%)
- Djokovic 41%
- Nadal 41%
- Identical.
12: Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve (tournament average = 50%)
- Djokovic 63%
- Nadal 58%
- Djokovic is performing extremely well in this key area.
13: Break Points Won (tournament average = 42%)
- Djokovic 48% (23/48)
- Nadal 46% (26/57)
- Very similar performance.
14: Break Points Saved
- Djokovic 82% (14/17)
- Nadal 50% (9/18)
- Djokovic has only been broken three times. Nadal has been broken nine times.
15: Forehand Performance
- Djokovic 54 winners / 79 errors (-25)
- Nadal 62 winners / 101 errors (-39)
- Overall, Djokovic edges Nadal in this key baseline battle.
16: Backhand Performance
- Djokovic 23 winners / 85 errors (-62)
- Nadal 21 winners / 102 errors (-81)
- Djokovic has also put up superior overall numbers off his backhand wing.
17: 0-4 Shots Performance
- Djokovic Won 204 / Lost 144 = +60
- Nadal Won 228 / Lost 197 = +30
- This is a very important statistic overall. The player that wins the 0-4 shot rally length wins the match > 90% of the time on clay. Djokovic has a clear edge here, being +60 to Nadal’s +30.
18: 5-8 Shots Performance
- Djokovic 114 won / 67 lost = +47
- Nadal 131 won / 73 lost = +58
- This is always the beating heart of Nadal’s superior performance, especially on clay.
19: 9+ Shots Performance
- Djokovic = 77 won / 55 lost = +22
- Nadal 64 won / 45 lost = +19
- Very similar overall numbers from both players.
20: Rally Length Percentage Played
Djokovic
- 0-4 Shots = 53% (348)
- 5-8 Shots = 27% (181)
- 9+ Shots = 20% (132)
- Total = 661
Nadal
- 0-4 Shots = 58% (425)
- 5-8 Shots = 28%% (204)
- 9+ Shots = 14%% (109)
- Total = 738
Nadal is playing more short rallies in the 0-4 shot range so far in the tournament than Djokovic (58% -53%)
21: Average Rally Length
- Djokovic = 5.3 shots
- Nadal 4.7 shots
- Nadal is playing slightly shorter rallies to the quarter-finals.
22: Net Points Won
- Djokovic 78% (80/103)
- Nadal 71% (75/106)
- Both players have been to the net over 100 times through the first four rounds.
23: Baseline Points Won
- Djokovic 55% (227/410)
- Nadal 57% (262/460)
- Both players are performing extremely well from the back of the court, as you would expect.
24: Total Points Won
- Djokovic 395
- Nadal 423
- Nadal had a five-setter against Felix.
25: Time On Court
- Djokovic 8:13
- Nadal 10:43
- Nadal has played two more sets than Djokovic (14-12).
SUMMARY
Djokovic is having a very strong tournament when serving, having only been broken three times. His overall form is solid, but so is Nadal’s. Djokovic’s superiority in 0-4 rallies is a key indicator that he is feeling confident taking it to his opponents early in the point.
Let’s hope for a great quarter-final in Paris!
Best,
Craig